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Santos Limited
Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
Updated 1 hour ago
$8.08
Santos Limited explores, develops, produces, transports, and markets hydrocarbons in Australia and Papua New Guinea. The company's assets are located in the Alaska, Cooper Basin, Queensland and New South Wales, Papua New Guinea, Northern Australia, Timor-Leste and Western Australia.
View full descriptionThe Warsi Rating combines two proven approaches: value investing principles and dividend strategy. A stock must score 70+ on both to be rated Solid or higher.
MARKET CAP
$26.24B
P/E RATIO
32.2
DIV. YIELD
3.0%
FRANKING
32%
$2.73
Discounted cash flow estimate
$4.71
For 6% dividend yield
Business quality and balance-sheet durability.
How much the company owes vs. what it owns
Annual dividends as percentage of stock price
Santos Limited explores, develops, produces, transports, and markets hydrocarbons in Australia and Papua New Guinea. The company's assets are located in the Alaska, Cooper Basin, Queensland and New South Wales, Papua New Guinea, Northern Australia, Timor-Leste and Western Australia. It also engages in the development of decarbonization technologies. In addition, the company produces crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, ethane, liquefied natural gas, and condensate, as well as natural gas.
Santos Limited was incorporated in 1954 and is headquartered in Adelaide, Australia.
Who owns the company's shares and how much leadership has at stake
Leadership has very little personal money riding on the stock price
Professional fund managers have done their homework and chosen to own this
Shares freely traded on the ASX by individual investors like you
Professional fund managers hold a solid 39.5% — they see value in the business. However, company leadership owns very little (0.1%). While low insider ownership is common in large companies, it means management’s financial interests aren’t strongly tied to yours as a shareholder.
Current Snapshot
Insider %
0.1%
Institutional %
39.5%
Float %
60.4%
Why It Matters
Ownership mix affects governance incentives, liquidity, and share-price behaviour under large portfolio rebalancing flows.
Formula
Public Float (%) = 100 - Insider Ownership (%) - Institutional Ownership (%)Method
Use reported ownership percentages, convert to percentage terms, and compute remaining public float as the residual.
Worked Example
If insiders own 0.1% and institutions own 39.5%, public float is 60.4%.
How to Interpret
Higher insider ownership can improve alignment of incentives, while dominant institutional concentration can amplify short-term price moves.
Professional fund managers hold a solid 39.5% — they see value in the business. However, company leadership owns very little (0.1%). While low insider ownership is common in large companies, it means management’s financial interests aren’t strongly tied to yours as a shareholder.
Sources
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Feb 2026 | Gallagher (Kevin Thomas) Chief Executive Officer | Sale at price 4.80 per share. | 830K | $4.0M |
| 24 Feb 2026 | Guthrie (Vanessa Ann) Independent Non-Executive Director | Purchase at price 4.83 per share. | 6K | $27K |
| 23 Feb 2026 | Werror (Musje Moses) Independent Non-Executive Director | Purchase at price 4.76 per share. | 3K | $14K |
| 21 Feb 2026 | Allen (Yasmin Anita) Retired | Unknown | 49K | — |
| 20 Feb 2026 | Gallagher (Kevin Thomas) Chief Executive Officer | Unknown | 1.2M | — |
Company insiders have been net buyers of shares over the past 12 months. This may indicate management confidence in future prospects.
Market data sourced from third-party financial data providers. Analysis generated using Warsi Criteria — proprietary scoring algorithms for value investing and dividend income analysis. Not financial advice. Learn how we analyse stocks →
Acceptable. Debt level (0.48) is within this Buffett-inspired framework's limit of 1.
Current Snapshot
Current D/E
0.48x
Industry Limit
1.00x
Headroom
+0.52x
Why It Matters
Debt-to-equity shows balance-sheet risk. Lower leverage usually means more flexibility when earnings soften.
Formula
Total Debt / Shareholders' EquityMethod
Compare current D/E against the industry threshold used in the scoring framework, then assess remaining headroom.
Worked Example
This company's D/E is 0.48, meaning it carries 48 cents of debt for every $1 of equity. The energy (oil & gas) limit is 1.00, leaving 0.52 of headroom.
How to Interpret
Lower values generally imply lower refinancing pressure and lower dividend stress in downturns.
Low debt means this company isn't at risk of cutting dividends to service loans during downturns. Your income stream is protected by a strong balance sheet.
Sources
Short-term assets vs. short-term debts
Adequate liquidity. 1.53 ratio meets Buffett's 1.5 target.
Current Snapshot
Current Ratio
1.53x
Warning Floor
1.00x
Target
1.50x
Why It Matters
Liquidity supports operational stability. Companies with weak liquidity can face pressure even when long-term fundamentals are sound.
Formula
Current Assets / Current LiabilitiesMethod
Compare the current ratio to the warning floor and target level used in the framework.
Worked Example
This company's current ratio is 1.53x — it has $1.53 in short-term assets for every $1 of short-term liabilities. The target is 1.5x, with a warning floor at 1.0x.
How to Interpret
Ratios above the target suggest healthier short-term resilience; ratios below 1.0x can indicate immediate funding risk.
Ample cash reserves mean the company can pay dividends even during temporary revenue drops. Your income has a buffer against short-term disruptions.
Sources
Real cash left after running the business
Positive cash generation. Company produces real cash after capital expenditures - can fund dividends, buybacks, or growth.
Current Snapshot
Current FCF
$757M
Pass Rule
> $0
Status
Positive
Why It Matters
Free cash flow is the cash available after core operating and capital needs. It is central to dividend capacity.
Formula
Operating Cash Flow - Capital ExpendituresMethod
Review whether free cash flow is consistently positive and whether it is sufficient relative to dividends and debt needs.
Worked Example
This company generated $757M in free cash flow — cash left after operating costs and capital expenditure. Positive FCF means dividends are funded by real cash generation.
How to Interpret
Persistently negative free cash flow can force reliance on borrowing or equity issuance to maintain payouts.
Positive cash flow means dividends are funded by actual money, not accounting profits. As Buffett says, "Cash is fact, profit is opinion." Your income is backed by real cash generation.
Sources
Profit generated per $1 of shareholder investment
4.3% average is below the 12% threshold. This suggests the business may lack a durable competitive advantage. Note: COVID-19 Pandemic year(s) excluded — ROE recovered to 232% of target.
Current Snapshot
10Y Avg
4.3%
Threshold
12.0%
Worst Year
-14.9%
Why It Matters
ROE shows how effectively management turns shareholder capital into profit. High and stable ROE can signal pricing power, cost discipline, or both.
Formula
Net Income / Shareholders' Equity x 100Method
Use the 10-year average ROE and review the weakest year to check whether returns stayed resilient across cycles.
Worked Example
This company's 10-year average ROE is 4.3%, meaning each $1 of shareholder equity generates $0.04 in annual profit. The threshold is 12%, and the worst single year was -14.9%.
How to Interpret
Higher and steadier ROE generally supports stronger long-term compounding. Large drawdowns in weak years can point to fragility.
Lower ROE means your investment compounds more slowly. At 4.3%, this business needs more capital to generate the same returns as competitors. Consider whether other strengths (yield, stability) compensate for weaker profitability.
Sources
Price versus estimated intrinsic value and required return thresholds.
What percentage of the stock price comes back as earnings each year
3.1% earnings yield is below the 8.5% threshold. You'd earn nearly as much from safer government bonds, which means the extra risk of owning shares isn't being compensated.
Current Snapshot
Current Yield
3.1%
Required Yield
8.5%
Spread
-5.4pp
Why It Matters
Earnings yield reframes valuation as return on price paid. It helps compare equity earnings power against lower-risk alternatives.
Formula
(Earnings per Share / Stock Price) x 100Method
Calculate current earnings yield, then compare it to the required yield for the stock's industry setting.
Worked Example
With EPS of $0.25 and a share price of $8.08, earnings yield is 3.1%. The required yield for this industry is 8.5% (based on 4.5% government bond rate plus a risk premium).
How to Interpret
A yield above the required level suggests better valuation support; below it indicates thinner compensation for equity risk.
Returns don't justify the added risk compared to safe bonds. Consider whether the dividend yield alone compensates, or wait for a better price.
Sources
How current price compares with estimated intrinsic value
Percentage of revenue that becomes profit after all expenses
16.5% net margin meets the 10% threshold for this sector.
Current Snapshot
Current Margin
16.5%
Threshold
10.0%
Relative Position
+6.5%
Why It Matters
Net income margin shows how much profit the business keeps from each dollar of revenue after all costs.
Formula
Net Income / Total Revenue x 100Method
Compare current margin with the industry-specific threshold to avoid cross-sector distortions.
Worked Example
This company's net income margin is 16.5% — it keeps 17 cents of every revenue dollar as profit after all expenses. The energy (oil & gas) threshold is 10%, putting it 6.5% above the requirement.
How to Interpret
Margins that are both strong and stable can indicate competitive strength; persistent weakness may limit reinvestment and payout capacity.
Adequate profitability for this sector. The business converts enough revenue into profit to support dividend payments and moderate growth.
Sources
Consistency of profits over time
How much earnings are consumed by capital expenditure
Years of earnings needed to retire all long-term debt
Is the business growing — and is debt being managed responsibly?
Revenue growing with stable debt levels — a positive sign of organic growth that supports future dividends.
Current Snapshot
Revenue Change
+52.5%
Debt Change
+4.6%
Trend State
Improving
Why It Matters
Revenue trend shows whether the business is expanding or contracting. Debt trend adds context on whether growth is being funded conservatively.
Formula
Revenue Change (%) = (Latest Revenue - Earliest Revenue) / |Earliest Revenue| x 100; Debt Change (%) = (Latest Debt - Earliest Debt) / |Earliest Debt| x 100Method
Map annual revenue history and, where relevant, annual debt history. For financial companies, debt is excluded because deposits and reserves distort this signal.
Worked Example
Revenue changed by +52.5% across the displayed period, while debt changed by +4.6%.
How to Interpret
Rising revenue with stable or falling debt is typically stronger than rising revenue funded by rapidly rising leverage.
Revenue growing with stable debt levels — a positive sign of organic growth that supports future dividends.
Sources
3.50% yield is well below the 6% target. Not suitable for Barsi's income strategy.
Current Snapshot
6Y Avg Yield
3.5%
6% Requirement
6.0%
Gross Yield
4.0%
Why It Matters
Yield translates dividend income into a percentage of the price paid, which is central to income-first screening.
Formula
Annual Dividends per Share / Stock Price x 100Method
Use the 6-year average annual dividend for consistency and compare the result with the 6% framework requirement.
Worked Example
With a 6-year average annual dividend of $0.28 and a share price of $8.08, the Barsi yield is 3.5%. The minimum requirement is 6%. Including franking credits, the gross yield is 4.0%.
How to Interpret
Higher sustainable yield improves upfront income, but unusually high yields may reflect elevated risk or weak coverage.
Low yield means you need significant capital to generate meaningful income. Barsi's strategy focuses on stocks that provide substantial cash flow from day one.
Sources
Track record of consistent dividend payments
| Ex-Date | Pay Date | Gross | Franking | Net | Credit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ~24 Aug 2026Est | ~1 Oct 2026 | ~$0.17 | 76% | ~$0.13 | $0.04 |
| ~22 Feb 2027Est | ~25 Mar 2027 | ~$0.21 | 76% | ~$0.16 | $0.05 |
| Ex-Date | Pay Date | Gross | Franking | Net | Credit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Feb 2026Interim | 25 Mar 2026 | $0.15 | 0% | $0.15 | $0.00 |
| 2 Sept 2025Final | 1 Oct 2025 | $0.21 | 10% | $0.20 | $0.01 |
| 24 Feb 2025Interim | 31 Mar 2025 | $0.16 | 0% | $0.16 | $0.00 |
| 26 Aug 2024Final | 30 Sept 2024 | $0.19 | 0% | $0.19 | $0.00 |
| 26 Feb 2024Interim | 27 Mar 2024 | $0.27 | 0% | $0.27 | $0.00 |
| 28 Aug 2023Final | 2 Oct 2023 | $0.13 | 0% | $0.13 | $0.00 |
| 27 Feb 2023Interim | 3 Apr 2023 | $0.22 | 0% | $0.22 | $0.00 |
| 22 Aug 2022Final | 22 Sept 2022 | $0.11 | 0% | $0.11 | $0.00 |
| 21 Feb 2022Interim | 24 Mar 2022 | $0.15 | 70% | $0.12 | $0.04 |
| 20 Aug 2021Final | 24 Sept 2021 | $0.11 | 100% | $0.08 | $0.03 |
10 years of consistent dividends. A dividend cut during a systemic event was excused. Dividends have since grown to 205% of pre-event levels.
Current Snapshot
History
10yr
Predictability
Variable
Payout Health
High risk
Why It Matters
Payment consistency is a direct test of dividend reliability. Large cuts or skips often appear before confidence recovers.
Formula
Consecutive Years = count of years with dividend payments and no disqualifying skip/cut eventsMethod
Require at least 6 years of history, then check for skipped years and large cuts, allowing approved systemic-event exceptions.
Worked Example
This company has 10 years of dividend history (2016–2026). No suspensions detected — 10 consecutive years of payments. Predictability: Variable. Payout health: High risk. The minimum requirement is 6 years.
How to Interpret
Longer uninterrupted records generally signal stronger income reliability than high yield alone.
The dividend cut occurred during a systemic event, and the company demonstrated resilience by recovering dividends. This suggests management remains committed to shareholder income.
Sources
Highest price to lock in 6% yield
Current price ($8.08) is 72% above the ceiling. Wait for a drop to lock in 6% yield.
Current Snapshot
Current Price
$8.08
Max Buy Price
$4.71
Delta
-71.5%
Why It Matters
The price ceiling links valuation discipline to income targets by defining the price that aligns with a 6% yield target.
Formula
6-Year Average Annual Dividend / 0.06Method
Use the 6-year average dividend (not one year) and divide by 0.06 to estimate the maximum entry price for target yield.
Worked Example
With a current price of $8.08 and a ceiling of $4.71, the entry is 71.5% above the ceiling.
How to Interpret
Prices below the ceiling imply a historical yield above 6%; prices above it imply a lower historical yield at entry.
At this price, you won't achieve Barsi's target 6% yield. Consider waiting for a pullback — market volatility often creates more favourable valuations for patient investors.
Sources
Industry category of the business
Energy is an essential service sector with stable, predictable cash flows - ideal for dividend investing.
Current Snapshot
Industry
Oil & Gas E&P
BESST Match
Yes
Score Impact
+3 points
Why It Matters
Sector classification helps contextualise risk and demand durability, which can materially affect dividend stability.
Formula
BESST Match = Sector in {Banks, Energy, Sanitation, Insurance, Telecom}Method
Match company sector or industry against BESST categories. A match adds scoring support but does not replace core dividend checks.
Worked Example
This company operates in Oil & Gas E&P (Energy sector). It matches the Energy category — an essential service sector with stable demand, earning a +3 point scoring advantage.
How to Interpret
BESST alignment is a positive context signal. Non-BESST stocks can still qualify with strong yield and dividend consistency.
Essential services maintain demand regardless of economic conditions - people always need electricity, banking, and telecommunications. Your income is protected by inelastic demand.
Sources
How much of a company's earnings are paid out as dividends
A 93% payout means the company distributes most of its earnings as dividends — more income per share now, but less room for growth. Around 67% is often considered “normal” for established companies. This level feeds directly into the price ceiling calculation.
Current Snapshot
Latest Ratio
93.3%
Healthy Range
30%-75%
Zone
Elevated
Why It Matters
Payout ratio links dividends to earnings capacity and helps evaluate whether current distributions are likely to remain supportable.
Formula
Payout Ratio (%) = (Annual Dividend per Share / Earnings per Share) x 100Method
Calculate year-by-year payout ratios where EPS is positive, classify each year by sustainability zone, and compare with the current TTM ratio.
Worked Example
$0.37 dividend / $0.25 EPS equals 145.9% payout ratio.
How to Interpret
Ratios in the middle range are usually more sustainable than very high ratios. Values above 100% indicate dividends exceeded earnings in that period.
A 93% payout means the company distributes most of its earnings as dividends — more income per share now, but less room for growth. Around 67% is often considered “normal” for established companies. This level feeds directly into the price ceiling calculation.
Sources
Stock is trading 492% ABOVE the fair-value threshold (includes 50% margin of safety) and above the estimated intrinsic value.
Current Snapshot
Current Margin
-196.0%
Industry Threshold
50%
Status
196% Overvalued
Why It Matters
Margin of safety provides a valuation buffer against modelling uncertainty and adverse business outcomes.
Formula
(Estimated Intrinsic Value per Share - Current Price) / Estimated Intrinsic Value per Share x 100Method
Estimate intrinsic value using a two-stage DCF (10-year projection plus terminal value), then compare with current price.
Worked Example
For this stock now: intrinsic value is $2.73 per share, current price is $8.08, and margin of safety is -196.0%.
How to Interpret
Positive margin indicates price below modelled value; negative margin indicates price above modelled value. Compare against the industry's required buffer.
The market price is above both your required threshold and intrinsic value estimate. Under this methodology, there is no valuation buffer for estimate error or market volatility.
Sources
Cyclical business - earnings naturally fluctuate with commodity prices. Focus on dividend consistency instead.
Current Snapshot
Positive Years
7/11
Allowed Losses
0
EPS CAGR
-8.4%
Why It Matters
Consistency in EPS helps distinguish resilient earnings power from one-off performance spikes.
Formula
Positive EPS Years / Available EPS YearsMethod
For 8+ years of data, apply industry-specific loss tolerance. For limited data, every available year must be positive.
Worked Example
This company reported positive earnings in 7 of the last 11 years, with 2 loss years. The allowed loss tolerance for this industry is 0 years. EPS growth rate (CAGR) is -8.4%.
How to Interpret
Fewer loss years and stronger EPS continuity generally improve confidence in future dividend and valuation assumptions.
Cyclical businesses have volatile earnings tied to commodity prices. For these companies, dividend track record is more telling than earnings consistency.
Sources
CapEx consumes 153% of cumulative earnings — above the 75% threshold. Expected for this capital-intensive sector.
Current Snapshot
10Y CapEx Intensity
153%
Threshold
75%
Buffer
-78%
Why It Matters
CapEx intensity estimates how much of earnings must be reinvested just to sustain operations.
Formula
Cumulative CapEx (10yr) / Cumulative Net Income (10yr) x 100Method
Aggregate 10-year CapEx and net income, then compare the ratio with the sector threshold in the framework.
Worked Example
Over 10 years, 153% of this company's cumulative earnings were consumed by capital expenditure. The energy (oil & gas) threshold is 75%, leaving a buffer of -78% (over threshold).
How to Interpret
Lower ratios usually indicate better cash conversion. Higher ratios can reduce room for dividends and buybacks.
High capital intensity means most earnings go back into maintaining the business rather than rewarding shareholders. This is typical for this sector but limits dividend growth potential.
Sources
Would take 5.3 years of earnings to pay off long-term debt — above the 5-year threshold. Heavy debt relative to earnings.
Current Snapshot
Payoff Years
5.3yr
Target Years
5yr
Gap
-0.3yr
Why It Matters
Debt payoff years converts leverage into an intuitive time measure, making debt burden easier to compare across stocks.
Formula
Long-Term Debt / Average Net Income (3yr)Method
Use current long-term debt and the 3-year average net income to smooth one-off profit noise.
Worked Example
With $6.1B in long-term debt and $1.2B in average annual earnings (3yr), it would take 5.3 years of earnings to pay off all debt. The energy (oil & gas) threshold is 5 years.
How to Interpret
Lower values generally indicate stronger debt capacity. Very high values can constrain dividend resilience.
High debt relative to earnings means interest payments compete with dividends for available cash. If earnings dip, the dividend is at risk because debt must be serviced first.
Sources
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