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New Hope Corporation Limited
Energy · Thermal Coal
Updated 12 hours ago
$5.84
MARKET CAP
$4.93B
P/E RATIO
11.2
DIV. YIELD
4.3%
FRANKING
100%
New Hope Corporation Limited engages in the development and operation of coal mines. It operates through three segments: Coal Mining in Queensland, Coal Mining in New South Wales, and Other.
View full descriptionThe Warsi Rating combines two proven approaches: value investing principles and dividend strategy. A stock must score 70+ on both to be rated Solid or higher.
$22.38
Discounted cash flow estimate
$6.95
For 6% dividend yield
Business quality and balance-sheet durability.
How much the company owes vs. what it owns
Excellent. Very low debt (0.14) means strong financial flexibility and minimal bankruptcy risk.
Current Snapshot
Current D/E
0.14x
Industry Limit
1.00x
Headroom
+0.86x
Why It Matters
Debt-to-equity shows balance-sheet risk. Lower leverage usually means more flexibility when earnings soften.
Formula
Total Debt / Shareholders' EquityMethod
Compare current D/E against the industry threshold used in the scoring framework, then assess remaining headroom.
Worked Example
This company's D/E is 0.14, meaning it carries 14 cents of debt for every $1 of equity. The energy (oil & gas) limit is 1.00, leaving 0.86 of headroom.
How to Interpret
Lower values generally imply lower refinancing pressure and lower dividend stress in downturns.
Very low debt means this company has maximum flexibility. They won't need to cut dividends to service loans during downturns - your income stream is protected by a fortress balance sheet.
Sources
Short-term assets vs. short-term debts
Real cash left after running the business
Positive cash generation. Company produces real cash after capital expenditures - can fund dividends, buybacks, or growth.
Current Snapshot
Current FCF
$260M
Pass Rule
> $0
Status
Positive
Why It Matters
Free cash flow is the cash available after core operating and capital needs. It is central to dividend capacity.
Formula
Operating Cash Flow - Capital ExpendituresMethod
Review whether free cash flow is consistently positive and whether it is sufficient relative to dividends and debt needs.
Worked Example
This company generated $260M in free cash flow — cash left after operating costs and capital expenditure. Positive FCF means dividends are funded by real cash generation.
How to Interpret
Persistently negative free cash flow can force reliance on borrowing or equity issuance to maintain payouts.
Positive cash flow means dividends are funded by actual money, not accounting profits. As Buffett says, "Cash is fact, profit is opinion." Your income is backed by real cash generation.
Sources
Profit generated per $1 of shareholder investment
Price versus estimated intrinsic value and required return thresholds.
What percentage of the stock price comes back as earnings each year
How much earnings are consumed by capital expenditure
Is the business growing — and is debt being managed responsibly?
Revenue and debt both growing — check whether debt is funding productive growth or covering shortfalls. Sustainable dividends require revenue to outpace debt over time.
Current Snapshot
Revenue Change
+244.2%
Debt Change
+2861.5%
Trend State
Mixed
Why It Matters
Revenue trend shows whether the business is expanding or contracting. Debt trend adds context on whether growth is being funded conservatively.
Formula
Revenue Change (%) = (Latest Revenue - Earliest Revenue) / |Earliest Revenue| x 100; Debt Change (%) = (Latest Debt - Earliest Debt) / |Earliest Debt| x 100Method
Map annual revenue history and, where relevant, annual debt history. For financial companies, debt is excluded because deposits and reserves distort this signal.
Worked Example
Revenue changed by +244.2% across the displayed period, while debt changed by +2861.5%.
How to Interpret
Rising revenue with stable or falling debt is typically stronger than rising revenue funded by rapidly rising leverage.
Revenue and debt both growing — check whether debt is funding productive growth or covering shortfalls. Sustainable dividends require revenue to outpace debt over time.
Sources
Annual dividends as percentage of stock price
7.14% yield meets Barsi's 6% minimum. Based on 6-year average, not one-time spikes.
Current Snapshot
6Y Avg Yield
7.1%
6% Requirement
6.0%
Gross Yield
10.2%
Why It Matters
Yield translates dividend income into a percentage of the price paid, which is central to income-first screening.
Formula
Annual Dividends per Share / Stock Price x 100Method
Use the 6-year average annual dividend for consistency and compare the result with the 6% framework requirement.
Worked Example
With a 6-year average annual dividend of $0.42 and a share price of $5.84, the Barsi yield is 7.1%. The minimum requirement is 6%. Including franking credits, the gross yield is 10.2%.
How to Interpret
Higher sustainable yield improves upfront income, but unusually high yields may reflect elevated risk or weak coverage.
This yield provides meaningful income that can beat inflation and compound over time. With DRIP enabled, this income can snowball into significant wealth.
Sources
Track record of consistent dividend payments
| Ex-Date | Pay Date | Gross | Franking | Net | Credit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Mar 2026Interim | 20 Apr 2026 | $0.14 | 100% | $0.10 | $0.04 |
| ~25 Sept 2026Est | ~8 Oct 2026 | ~$0.33 | 100% | ~$0.23 | $0.10 |
Highest price to lock in 6% yield
Industry category of the business
Energy is an essential service sector with stable, predictable cash flows - ideal for dividend investing.
Current Snapshot
Industry
Thermal Coal
BESST Match
Yes
Score Impact
+3 points
Why It Matters
Sector classification helps contextualise risk and demand durability, which can materially affect dividend stability.
Formula
BESST Match = Sector in {Banks, Energy, Sanitation, Insurance, Telecom}Method
Match company sector or industry against BESST categories. A match adds scoring support but does not replace core dividend checks.
Worked Example
This company operates in Thermal Coal (Energy sector). It matches the Energy category — an essential service sector with stable demand, earning a +3 point scoring advantage.
How to Interpret
Sources
How much of a company's earnings are paid out as dividends
The company is paying out more in dividends than it earns (188%). This is unsustainable long-term and often signals a dividend cut ahead. An inflated payout also distorts the price ceiling calculation used in our analysis.
Current Snapshot
Latest Ratio
187.8%
Healthy Range
30%-75%
Zone
Unsustainable
Why It Matters
Payout ratio links dividends to earnings capacity and helps evaluate whether current distributions are likely to remain supportable.
Formula
Payout Ratio (%) = (Annual Dividend per Share / Earnings per Share) x 100Method
Calculate year-by-year payout ratios where EPS is positive, classify each year by sustainability zone, and compare with the current TTM ratio.
Worked Example
$0.34 dividend / $0.52 EPS equals 65.4% payout ratio.
How to Interpret
Ratios in the middle range are usually more sustainable than very high ratios. Values above 100% indicate dividends exceeded earnings in that period.
The company is paying out more in dividends than it earns (188%). This is unsustainable long-term and often signals a dividend cut ahead. An inflated payout also distorts the price ceiling calculation used in our analysis.
Sources
New Hope Corporation Limited engages in the development and operation of coal mines. It operates through three segments: Coal Mining in Queensland, Coal Mining in New South Wales, and Other. The company holds interests in the New Acland mine, an open-cut thermal coal mine located in north-west of Oakey, southeast Queensland; Queensland Bulk Handling is a 12 million tonnes per annum coal export facility; and Bengalla mine, an open-cut coal mine situated near Muswellbrook, New South Wales. It also engages in port handling and logistics, investment in coal mines, and agriculture activities, as well as development and production of oil and gas.
In addition, the company holds interests in the Bengalla exploration license situated in New South Wales; West Muswellbrook assessment lease located to the west of Muswellbrook, New South Wales; Maxwell Mine situated on south of Muswellbrook, New South Wales; and various undeveloped coal assets, including the North Surat Coal project and Bee Creek tenement in Queensland. Additionally, the company is involved in the port operation; and marketing activities. It has operations in Australia, Japan, China, Taiwan, Chile, Korea, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and internationally. The company was founded in 1952 and is headquartered in Brisbane, Australia.
Who owns the company's shares and how much leadership has at stake
Leadership holds a small personal stake
Professional fund managers have done their homework and chosen to own this
Shares freely traded on the ASX by individual investors like you
Insiders hold 2.4% — some skin in the game, but not a major commitment. Institutions hold 53.5%. Overall a typical ownership structure for a mid-to-large company. Neither a red flag nor a strong positive signal.
Current Snapshot
Insider %
2.4%
Institutional %
53.5%
Float %
44.1%
Why It Matters
Ownership mix affects governance incentives, liquidity, and share-price behaviour under large portfolio rebalancing flows.
Formula
Public Float (%) = 100 - Insider Ownership (%) - Institutional Ownership (%)Method
Use reported ownership percentages, convert to percentage terms, and compute remaining public float as the residual.
Worked Example
If insiders own 2.4% and institutions own 53.5%, public float is 44.1%.
How to Interpret
Higher insider ownership can improve alignment of incentives, while dominant institutional concentration can amplify short-term price moves.
Insiders hold 2.4% — some skin in the game, but not a major commitment. Institutions hold 53.5%. Overall a typical ownership structure for a mid-to-large company. Neither a red flag nor a strong positive signal.
Sources
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Sept 2025 | Millner (Robert Dobson) Non Executive Chairman | Purchase at price 278.60 per share. | 25K | $7.0M |
| 30 June 2025 | O'Brien (Dominic H) General Manager | Unknown | 219K | — |
| 30 June 2025 | Rinaldi (Rebecca) Chief Financial Officer | Unknown | 170K | — |
| 30 June 2025 | Bishop (Robert John) Chief Executive Officer | Unknown | 420K | — |
Company insiders have been net buyers of shares over the past 12 months. This may indicate management confidence in future prospects.
Market data sourced from third-party financial data providers. Analysis generated using Warsi Criteria — proprietary scoring algorithms for value investing and dividend income analysis. Not financial advice. Learn how we analyse stocks →
Strong liquidity. 2.08 ratio means ample cash to cover short-term obligations.
Current Snapshot
Current Ratio
2.08x
Warning Floor
1.00x
Target
1.50x
Why It Matters
Liquidity supports operational stability. Companies with weak liquidity can face pressure even when long-term fundamentals are sound.
Formula
Current Assets / Current LiabilitiesMethod
Compare the current ratio to the warning floor and target level used in the framework.
Worked Example
This company's current ratio is 2.08x — it has $2.08 in short-term assets for every $1 of short-term liabilities. The target is 1.5x, with a warning floor at 1.0x.
How to Interpret
Ratios above the target suggest healthier short-term resilience; ratios below 1.0x can indicate immediate funding risk.
Strong liquidity means the company can keep paying dividends even during temporary revenue drops. There's ample cash cushion to weather storms.
Sources
18.1% average ROE meets the threshold, but dropped to -0.1% in a weak year. Consistency matters in this framework. Note: COVID-19 Pandemic year(s) excluded — ROE recovered to 863% of target.
Current Snapshot
10Y Avg
18.1%
Threshold
12.0%
Worst Year
-0.1%
Why It Matters
ROE shows how effectively management turns shareholder capital into profit. High and stable ROE can signal pricing power, cost discipline, or both.
Formula
Net Income / Shareholders' Equity x 100Method
Use the 10-year average ROE and review the weakest year to check whether returns stayed resilient across cycles.
Worked Example
This company's 10-year average ROE is 18.1%, meaning each $1 of shareholder equity generates $0.18 in annual profit. The threshold is 12%, and the worst single year was -0.1%.
How to Interpret
Higher and steadier ROE generally supports stronger long-term compounding. Large drawdowns in weak years can point to fragility.
The average is solid, but the dip shows some vulnerability. At 18.1% ROE, every $1 retained generates $0.18 in annual profit — monitor whether the weak year was a one-off or a recurring pattern.
Sources
8.9% earnings yield exceeds the 7.5% threshold, meaning you're well compensated for owning shares instead of bonds.
Current Snapshot
Current Yield
8.9%
Required Yield
7.5%
Spread
+1.4pp
Why It Matters
Earnings yield reframes valuation as return on price paid. It helps compare equity earnings power against lower-risk alternatives.
Formula
(Earnings per Share / Stock Price) x 100Method
Calculate current earnings yield, then compare it to the required yield for the stock's industry setting.
Worked Example
With EPS of $0.52 and a share price of $5.84, earnings yield is 8.9%. The required yield for this industry is 7.5% (based on 4.5% government bond rate plus a risk premium).
How to Interpret
A yield above the required level suggests better valuation support; below it indicates thinner compensation for equity risk.
You're getting a fair return for the risk of owning shares instead of safe bonds. The earnings power justifies the price you're paying.
Sources
How current price compares with estimated intrinsic value
Exceptional discount: 63% BELOW the fair-value threshold (includes 30% margin of safety).
Current Snapshot
Current Margin
73.9%
Industry Threshold
30%
Status
63% Undervalued
Why It Matters
Margin of safety provides a valuation buffer against modelling uncertainty and adverse business outcomes.
Formula
(Estimated Intrinsic Value per Share - Current Price) / Estimated Intrinsic Value per Share x 100Method
Estimate intrinsic value using a two-stage DCF (10-year projection plus terminal value), then compare with current price.
Worked Example
For this stock now: intrinsic value is $22.38 per share, current price is $5.84, and margin of safety is 73.9%.
How to Interpret
Positive margin indicates price below modelled value; negative margin indicates price above modelled value. Compare against the industry's required buffer.
The market price sits far below your required entry threshold, providing a substantial valuation buffer if assumptions prove optimistic.
Sources
Moderate capital intensity. 28% of earnings goes to CapEx — within the 75% threshold for this sector.
Current Snapshot
10Y CapEx Intensity
28%
Threshold
75%
Buffer
+47%
Why It Matters
CapEx intensity estimates how much of earnings must be reinvested just to sustain operations.
Formula
Cumulative CapEx (10yr) / Cumulative Net Income (10yr) x 100Method
Aggregate 10-year CapEx and net income, then compare the ratio with the sector threshold in the framework.
Worked Example
Over 10 years, 28% of this company's cumulative earnings were consumed by capital expenditure. The energy (oil & gas) threshold is 75%, leaving a buffer of +47%.
How to Interpret
Lower ratios usually indicate better cash conversion. Higher ratios can reduce room for dividends and buybacks.
Capital needs are manageable for this sector. The business retains enough earnings to fund both maintenance and shareholder returns.
Sources
Percentage of revenue that becomes profit after all expenses
Strong 25.1% net margin — well above the 10% threshold for this sector.
Current Snapshot
Current Margin
25.1%
Threshold
10.0%
Relative Position
+15.1%
Why It Matters
Net income margin shows how much profit the business keeps from each dollar of revenue after all costs.
Formula
Net Income / Total Revenue x 100Method
Compare current margin with the industry-specific threshold to avoid cross-sector distortions.
Worked Example
This company's net income margin is 25.1% — it keeps 25 cents of every revenue dollar as profit after all expenses. The energy (oil & gas) threshold is 10%, putting it 15.1% above the requirement.
How to Interpret
Margins that are both strong and stable can indicate competitive strength; persistent weakness may limit reinvestment and payout capacity.
High margins provide a comfortable buffer against rising costs or temporary revenue drops. Dividends are well-supported by consistent profitability.
Sources
Consistency of profits over time
Cyclical business - earnings naturally fluctuate with commodity prices. Focus on dividend consistency instead.
Current Snapshot
Positive Years
8/10
Allowed Losses
0
EPS CAGR
17.4%
Why It Matters
Consistency in EPS helps distinguish resilient earnings power from one-off performance spikes.
Formula
Positive EPS Years / Available EPS YearsMethod
For 8+ years of data, apply industry-specific loss tolerance. For limited data, every available year must be positive.
Worked Example
This company reported positive earnings in 8 of the last 10 years, with 1 loss year. The allowed loss tolerance for this industry is 0 years. EPS growth rate (CAGR) is 17.4%.
How to Interpret
Fewer loss years and stronger EPS continuity generally improve confidence in future dividend and valuation assumptions.
Cyclical businesses have volatile earnings tied to commodity prices. For these companies, dividend track record is more telling than earnings consistency.
Sources
| Ex-Date | Pay Date | Gross | Franking | Net | Credit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Sept 2025Final | 8 Oct 2025 | $0.21 | 100% | $0.15 | $0.06 |
| 24 Mar 2025Interim | 28 Apr 2025 | $0.27 | 100% | $0.19 | $0.08 |
| 3 Oct 2024Final | 7 Nov 2024 | $0.31 | 100% | $0.22 | $0.09 |
| 15 Apr 2024Interim | 20 May 2024 | $0.24 | 100% | $0.17 | $0.07 |
| 23 Oct 2023Final | 7 Nov 2023 | $0.43 | 100% | $0.30 | $0.13 |
| 17 Apr 2023Interim | 22 May 2023 | $0.57 | 100% | $0.40 | $0.17 |
| 24 Oct 2022Final | 8 Nov 2022 | $0.80 | 100% | $0.56 | $0.24 |
| 14 Apr 2022Interim | 4 May 2022 | $0.43 | 100% | $0.30 | $0.13 |
| 25 Oct 2021Final | 29 Nov 2021 | $0.10 | 100% | $0.07 | $0.03 |
| 19 Apr 2021Interim | 24 May 2021 | $0.06 | 100% | $0.04 | $0.02 |
Excellent track record. 11 years of consistent dividends through multiple market cycles.
Current Snapshot
History
11yr
Predictability
Variable
Payout Health
High risk
Why It Matters
Payment consistency is a direct test of dividend reliability. Large cuts or skips often appear before confidence recovers.
Formula
Consecutive Years = count of years with dividend payments and no disqualifying skip/cut eventsMethod
Require at least 6 years of history, then check for skipped years and large cuts, allowing approved systemic-event exceptions.
Worked Example
This company has 11 years of dividend history (2016–2026). No suspensions detected — 11 consecutive years of payments. Predictability: Variable. Payout health: High risk. The minimum requirement is 6 years.
How to Interpret
Longer uninterrupted records generally signal stronger income reliability than high yield alone.
A 11-year track record through multiple economic cycles gives confidence your income will continue. This company has proven it prioritises shareholder returns.
Sources
Current price is favourable. Locks in 6%+ dividend yield based on historical average.
Current Snapshot
Current Price
$5.84
Max Buy Price
$6.95
Delta
+16.0%
Why It Matters
The price ceiling links valuation discipline to income targets by defining the price that aligns with a 6% yield target.
Formula
6-Year Average Annual Dividend / 0.06Method
Use the 6-year average dividend (not one year) and divide by 0.06 to estimate the maximum entry price for target yield.
Worked Example
With a current price of $5.84 and a ceiling of $6.95, the entry is 16.0% below the ceiling.
How to Interpret
Prices below the ceiling imply a historical yield above 6%; prices above it imply a lower historical yield at entry.
Buying below the ceiling locks in your target yield based on proven historical dividends — not projections. Your income is secured at this price.
Sources
BESST alignment is a positive context signal. Non-BESST stocks can still qualify with strong yield and dividend consistency.
Essential services maintain demand regardless of economic conditions - people always need electricity, banking, and telecommunications. Your income is protected by inelastic demand.
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