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Origin Energy Limited
Utilities · Utilities - Diversified
Updated just now
$12.59
MARKET CAP
$21.69B
P/E RATIO
14.7
DIV. YIELD
4.8%
FRANKING
65%
Origin Energy Limited, an integrated energy company, engages in the exploration and production of natural gas, electricity generation, wholesale and retail sale of electricity and gas, and sale of liquefied natural gas in Australia and internationally.
View full descriptionThe Warsi Rating combines two proven approaches: value investing principles and dividend strategy. A stock must score 70+ on both to be rated Solid or higher.
$18.18
Discounted cash flow estimate
$6.40
For 6% dividend yield
Business quality and balance-sheet durability.
How much the company owes vs. what it owns
Acceptable. Debt level (0.49) is within this Buffett-inspired framework's limit of 1.5.
Current Snapshot
Current D/E
0.49x
Industry Limit
1.50x
Headroom
+1.01x
Why It Matters
Debt-to-equity shows balance-sheet risk. Lower leverage usually means more flexibility when earnings soften.
Formula
Total Debt / Shareholders' EquityMethod
Compare current D/E against the industry threshold used in the scoring framework, then assess remaining headroom.
Worked Example
This company's D/E is 0.49, meaning it carries 49 cents of debt for every $1 of equity. The utilities & energy infrastructure limit is 1.50, leaving 1.01 of headroom.
How to Interpret
Lower values generally imply lower refinancing pressure and lower dividend stress in downturns.
Low debt means this company isn't at risk of cutting dividends to service loans during downturns. Your income stream is protected by a strong balance sheet.
Sources
Profit generated per $1 of shareholder investment
Real cash left after running the business
Negative free cash flow means the company is consuming cash. May need to raise debt or equity to fund operations.
Current Snapshot
Current FCF
$-1.0B
Pass Rule
> $0
Status
Negative
Why It Matters
Free cash flow is the cash available after core operating and capital needs. It is central to dividend capacity.
Formula
Operating Cash Flow - Capital ExpendituresMethod
Review whether free cash flow is consistently positive and whether it is sufficient relative to dividends and debt needs.
Worked Example
This company generated $-1.0B in free cash flow — cash left after operating costs and capital expenditure. Negative FCF means the company is consuming more cash than it generates.
How to Interpret
Persistently negative free cash flow can force reliance on borrowing or equity issuance to maintain payouts.
Negative cash flow means dividends may require borrowing - an unsustainable situation. The company is spending more cash than it generates, which can't continue indefinitely.
Sources
Price versus estimated intrinsic value and required return thresholds.
What percentage of the stock price comes back as earnings each year
Years of earnings needed to retire all long-term debt
Is the business growing — and is debt being managed responsibly?
Revenue and debt both growing — check whether debt is funding productive growth or covering shortfalls. Sustainable dividends require revenue to outpace debt over time.
Current Snapshot
Revenue Change
+19.0%
Debt Change
+42.8%
Trend State
Mixed
Why It Matters
Revenue trend shows whether the business is expanding or contracting. Debt trend adds context on whether growth is being funded conservatively.
Formula
Revenue Change (%) = (Latest Revenue - Earliest Revenue) / |Earliest Revenue| x 100; Debt Change (%) = (Latest Debt - Earliest Debt) / |Earliest Debt| x 100Method
Map annual revenue history and, where relevant, annual debt history. For financial companies, debt is excluded because deposits and reserves distort this signal.
Worked Example
Revenue changed by +19.0% across the displayed period, while debt changed by +42.8%.
How to Interpret
Rising revenue with stable or falling debt is typically stronger than rising revenue funded by rapidly rising leverage.
Revenue and debt both growing — check whether debt is funding productive growth or covering shortfalls. Sustainable dividends require revenue to outpace debt over time.
Sources
Annual dividends as percentage of stock price
3.05% yield is well below the 6% target. Not suitable for Barsi's income strategy.
Current Snapshot
6Y Avg Yield
3.0%
6% Requirement
6.0%
Gross Yield
3.9%
Why It Matters
Yield translates dividend income into a percentage of the price paid, which is central to income-first screening.
Formula
Annual Dividends per Share / Stock Price x 100Method
Use the 6-year average annual dividend for consistency and compare the result with the 6% framework requirement.
Worked Example
With a 6-year average annual dividend of $0.38 and a share price of $12.59, the Barsi yield is 3.0%. The minimum requirement is 6%. Including franking credits, the gross yield is 3.9%.
How to Interpret
Higher sustainable yield improves upfront income, but unusually high yields may reflect elevated risk or weak coverage.
Low yield means you need significant capital to generate meaningful income. Barsi's strategy focuses on stocks that provide substantial cash flow from day one.
Sources
Track record of consistent dividend payments
| Ex-Date | Pay Date | Gross | Franking | Net | Credit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ~31 Aug 2026Est | ~1 Oct 2026 | ~$0.27 | 100% | ~$0.19 | $0.08 |
| ~1 Mar 2027Est | ~30 Mar 2027 | ~$0.28 | 100% | ~$0.19 | $0.08 |
Highest price to lock in 6% yield
Industry category of the business
Sanitation is an essential service sector with stable, predictable cash flows - ideal for dividend investing.
Current Snapshot
Industry
Utilities - Diversified
BESST Match
Yes
Score Impact
+3 points
Why It Matters
Sector classification helps contextualise risk and demand durability, which can materially affect dividend stability.
Formula
BESST Match = Sector in {Banks, Energy, Sanitation, Insurance, Telecom}Method
Match company sector or industry against BESST categories. A match adds scoring support but does not replace core dividend checks.
Worked Example
This company operates in Utilities - Diversified (Utilities sector). It matches the Sanitation category — an essential service sector with stable demand, earning a +3 point scoring advantage.
How to Interpret
Sources
How much of a company's earnings are paid out as dividends
The company is paying out more in dividends than it earns (101%). This is unsustainable long-term and often signals a dividend cut ahead. An inflated payout also distorts the price ceiling calculation used in our analysis.
Current Snapshot
Latest Ratio
101.3%
Healthy Range
30%-75%
Zone
Unsustainable
Why It Matters
Payout ratio links dividends to earnings capacity and helps evaluate whether current distributions are likely to remain supportable.
Formula
Payout Ratio (%) = (Annual Dividend per Share / Earnings per Share) x 100Method
Calculate year-by-year payout ratios where EPS is positive, classify each year by sustainability zone, and compare with the current TTM ratio.
Worked Example
$0.60 dividend / $0.86 EPS equals 69.8% payout ratio.
How to Interpret
Ratios in the middle range are usually more sustainable than very high ratios. Values above 100% indicate dividends exceeded earnings in that period.
The company is paying out more in dividends than it earns (101%). This is unsustainable long-term and often signals a dividend cut ahead. An inflated payout also distorts the price ceiling calculation used in our analysis.
Sources
Origin Energy Limited, an integrated energy company, engages in the exploration and production of natural gas, electricity generation, wholesale and retail sale of electricity and gas, and sale of liquefied natural gas in Australia and internationally. The company operates through Energy Markets, Share of Octopus Energy, and Integrated Gas segments. Its exploration and production portfolio includes the Bowen and Surat basins in Queensland; the Browse basin in Western Australia; and the Cooper-Eromanga basins in Queensland. The company also generates electricity from coal, wind, and solar; sells electricity, natural gas, and LPG; and provides GreenPower products.
In addition, it sells, installs, repairs, and maintains solar photovoltaic systems and battery solutions; and offers internet products and services to residential and business customers. Further, the company engages in the e-mobility business. Origin Energy Limited was incorporated in 1946 and is based in Barangaroo, Australia.
Who owns the company's shares and how much leadership has at stake
Leadership holds a small personal stake
Professional fund managers have done their homework and chosen to own this
Shares freely traded on the ASX by individual investors like you
Insiders hold 1.2% — some skin in the game, but not a major commitment. Institutions hold 49.2%. Overall a typical ownership structure for a mid-to-large company. Neither a red flag nor a strong positive signal.
Current Snapshot
Insider %
1.2%
Institutional %
49.2%
Float %
49.5%
Why It Matters
Ownership mix affects governance incentives, liquidity, and share-price behaviour under large portfolio rebalancing flows.
Formula
Public Float (%) = 100 - Insider Ownership (%) - Institutional Ownership (%)Method
Use reported ownership percentages, convert to percentage terms, and compute remaining public float as the residual.
Worked Example
If insiders own 1.2% and institutions own 49.2%, public float is 49.5%.
How to Interpret
Higher insider ownership can improve alignment of incentives, while dominant institutional concentration can amplify short-term price moves.
Insiders hold 1.2% — some skin in the game, but not a major commitment. Institutions hold 49.2%. Overall a typical ownership structure for a mid-to-large company. Neither a red flag nor a strong positive signal.
Sources
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Mar 2026 | Scheinkestel (Nora Lia) Independent Non-Executive Director | Acquisition at price 8.05 per share. | 807 | $6K |
| 27 Mar 2026 | Scheinkestel (Nora Lia) Independent Non-Executive Director | Acquisition at price 8.05 per share. | 261 | $2K |
| 5 Mar 2026 | Mikkelsen (Stephen) Director (Non-Executive) | Purchase at price 8.30 per share. | 10K | $83K |
| 20 Feb 2026 | Scheinkestel (Nora Lia) Independent Non-Executive Director | Purchase at price 8.72 per share. | 6K | $49K |
| 18 Feb 2026 | Calabria (Frank) Chief Executive Officer | Sale at price 8.36 per share. | 292K | $2.4M |
Company insiders have been net buyers of shares over the past 12 months. This may indicate management confidence in future prospects.
Value analysis may be affected by missing data.
Market data sourced from third-party financial data providers. Analysis generated using Warsi Criteria — proprietary scoring algorithms for value investing and dividend income analysis. Not financial advice. Learn how we analyse stocks →
6.3% average is below the 10% threshold. This suggests the business may lack a durable competitive advantage. Note: COVID-19 Pandemic year(s) excluded — ROE recovered to 206% of target.
Current Snapshot
10Y Avg
6.3%
Threshold
10.0%
Worst Year
-14.3%
Why It Matters
ROE shows how effectively management turns shareholder capital into profit. High and stable ROE can signal pricing power, cost discipline, or both.
Formula
Net Income / Shareholders' Equity x 100Method
Use the 10-year average ROE and review the weakest year to check whether returns stayed resilient across cycles.
Worked Example
This company's 10-year average ROE is 6.3%, meaning each $1 of shareholder equity generates $0.06 in annual profit. The threshold is 10%, and the worst single year was -14.3%.
How to Interpret
Higher and steadier ROE generally supports stronger long-term compounding. Large drawdowns in weak years can point to fragility.
Lower ROE means your investment compounds more slowly. At 6.3%, this business needs more capital to generate the same returns as competitors. Consider whether other strengths (yield, stability) compensate for weaker profitability.
Sources
6.8% earnings yield exceeds the 6.0% threshold, meaning you're well compensated for owning shares instead of bonds.
Current Snapshot
Current Yield
6.8%
Required Yield
6.0%
Spread
+0.8pp
Why It Matters
Earnings yield reframes valuation as return on price paid. It helps compare equity earnings power against lower-risk alternatives.
Formula
(Earnings per Share / Stock Price) x 100Method
Calculate current earnings yield, then compare it to the required yield for the stock's industry setting.
Worked Example
With EPS of $0.86 and a share price of $12.59, earnings yield is 6.8%. The required yield for this industry is 6.0% (based on 4.5% government bond rate plus a risk premium).
How to Interpret
A yield above the required level suggests better valuation support; below it indicates thinner compensation for equity risk.
You're getting a fair return for the risk of owning shares instead of safe bonds. The earnings power justifies the price you're paying.
Sources
How current price compares with estimated intrinsic value
Stock is trading 8% BELOW the fair-value threshold (includes 25% margin of safety).
Current Snapshot
Current Margin
30.8%
Industry Threshold
25%
Status
8% Undervalued
Why It Matters
Margin of safety provides a valuation buffer against modelling uncertainty and adverse business outcomes.
Formula
(Estimated Intrinsic Value per Share - Current Price) / Estimated Intrinsic Value per Share x 100Method
Estimate intrinsic value using a two-stage DCF (10-year projection plus terminal value), then compare with current price.
Worked Example
For this stock now: intrinsic value is $18.18 per share, current price is $12.59, and margin of safety is 30.8%.
How to Interpret
Positive margin indicates price below modelled value; negative margin indicates price above modelled value. Compare against the industry's required buffer.
Price is below your required threshold, so you retain a margin-of-safety buffer against normal valuation error and market volatility.
Sources
Manageable debt. Could pay off long-term debt in 3.3 years — comfortably within the 8-year threshold.
Current Snapshot
Payoff Years
3.3yr
Target Years
8yr
Gap
+4.7yr
Why It Matters
Debt payoff years converts leverage into an intuitive time measure, making debt burden easier to compare across stocks.
Formula
Long-Term Debt / Average Net Income (3yr)Method
Use current long-term debt and the 3-year average net income to smooth one-off profit noise.
Worked Example
With $4.3B in long-term debt and $1.3B in average annual earnings (3yr), it would take 3.3 years of earnings to pay off all debt. The utilities & energy infrastructure threshold is 8 years.
How to Interpret
Lower values generally indicate stronger debt capacity. Very high values can constrain dividend resilience.
Debt is comfortably serviceable from earnings. This means interest payments won't crowd out dividends, even during moderate downturns.
Sources
How much earnings are consumed by capital expenditure
CapEx consumes 117% of cumulative earnings — above the 100% threshold. Expected for this capital-intensive sector.
Current Snapshot
10Y CapEx Intensity
117%
Threshold
100%
Buffer
-17%
Why It Matters
CapEx intensity estimates how much of earnings must be reinvested just to sustain operations.
Formula
Cumulative CapEx (10yr) / Cumulative Net Income (10yr) x 100Method
Aggregate 10-year CapEx and net income, then compare the ratio with the sector threshold in the framework.
Worked Example
Over 10 years, 117% of this company's cumulative earnings were consumed by capital expenditure. The utilities & energy infrastructure threshold is 100%, leaving a buffer of -17% (over threshold).
How to Interpret
Lower ratios usually indicate better cash conversion. Higher ratios can reduce room for dividends and buybacks.
High capital intensity means most earnings go back into maintaining the business rather than rewarding shareholders. This is typical for this sector but limits dividend growth potential.
Sources
Percentage of revenue that becomes profit after all expenses
8.7% net margin is below the 10% threshold. May reflect this sector's structural characteristics.
Current Snapshot
Current Margin
8.7%
Threshold
10.0%
Relative Position
-1.3%
Why It Matters
Net income margin shows how much profit the business keeps from each dollar of revenue after all costs.
Formula
Net Income / Total Revenue x 100Method
Compare current margin with the industry-specific threshold to avoid cross-sector distortions.
Worked Example
This company's net income margin is 8.7% — it keeps 9 cents of every revenue dollar as profit after all expenses. The utilities & energy infrastructure threshold is 10%, putting it 1.3% below the requirement.
How to Interpret
Margins that are both strong and stable can indicate competitive strength; persistent weakness may limit reinvestment and payout capacity.
Lower margins in this sector are common, but they leave less cushion if costs rise or revenue drops. Monitor whether margins are stable over time — consistency matters more than the absolute level.
Sources
How efficiently the company turns money into profit
1.9% ROIC is below the 8.5% threshold. Company may not be earning enough to justify the money invested in it.
Current Snapshot
5Y Avg
1.9%
Threshold
8.5%
WACC Delta
-4.6pp
Why It Matters
ROIC measures capital efficiency. Businesses that repeatedly earn above their funding cost can compound value more effectively.
Formula
After-Tax Operating Profit / Invested Capital x 100Method
Use the 5-year average ROIC and compare it with industry WACC plus the required spread in this framework.
Worked Example
This company's 5-year average ROIC is 1.9%, with a cost of capital (WACC) of 6.5%. The -4.6pp gap below WACC suggests it may be destroying value on each dollar invested.
How to Interpret
A healthy spread above WACC suggests value creation; a narrow or negative spread points to weaker capital efficiency.
Returns below the cost of borrowing mean the business destroys value over time. This can erode the foundation that supports dividends — proceed with caution.
Sources
Consistency of profits over time
3 loss year(s) found with only 4 years of data. Limited data requires 100% positive EPS - industry exemptions don't apply.
Current Snapshot
Positive Years
6/4
Allowed Losses
0 (limited)
EPS CAGR
47.5%
Why It Matters
Consistency in EPS helps distinguish resilient earnings power from one-off performance spikes.
Formula
Positive EPS Years / Available EPS YearsMethod
For 8+ years of data, apply industry-specific loss tolerance. For limited data, every available year must be positive.
Worked Example
This company reported positive earnings in 6 of the last 4 years, with 3 loss years. With only 4 years of data, every year must be positive. EPS growth rate (CAGR) is 47.5%.
How to Interpret
Fewer loss years and stronger EPS continuity generally improve confidence in future dividend and valuation assumptions.
Loss years signal unpredictable earnings. During loss periods, companies often cut dividends to preserve cash. Your income could be at risk in the next downturn.
Sources
| Ex-Date | Pay Date | Gross | Franking | Net | Credit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Mar 2026Interim | 27 Mar 2026 | $0.43 | 100% | $0.30 | $0.13 |
| 3 Sept 2025Final | 1 Oct 2025 | $0.30 | 0% | $0.30 | $0.00 |
| 4 Mar 2025Interim | 1 Apr 2025 | $0.30 | 0% | $0.30 | $0.00 |
| 5 Sept 2024Final | 3 Oct 2024 | $0.28 | 0% | $0.28 | $0.00 |
| 5 Mar 2024Interim | 2 Apr 2024 | $0.28 | 0% | $0.28 | $0.00 |
| 5 Sept 2023Final | 3 Oct 2023 | $0.20 | 0% | $0.20 | $0.00 |
| 28 Feb 2023Interim | 28 Mar 2023 | $0.17 | 0% | $0.17 | $0.00 |
| 6 Sept 2022Final | 4 Oct 2022 | $0.17 | 0% | $0.17 | $0.00 |
| 1 Mar 2022Interim | 29 Mar 2022 | $0.13 | 0% | $0.13 | $0.00 |
| 7 Sept 2021Final | 5 Oct 2021 | $0.07 | 0% | $0.07 | $0.00 |
8 years of consistent dividends meets Barsi's 6-year minimum requirement.
Current Snapshot
History
8yr
Predictability
Variable
Payout Health
Sustainable
Why It Matters
Payment consistency is a direct test of dividend reliability. Large cuts or skips often appear before confidence recovers.
Formula
Consecutive Years = count of years with dividend payments and no disqualifying skip/cut eventsMethod
Require at least 6 years of history, then check for skipped years and large cuts, allowing approved systemic-event exceptions.
Worked Example
This company has 8 years of dividend history (2019–2026). No suspensions detected — 8 consecutive years of payments. Predictability: Variable. Payout health: Sustainable. The minimum requirement is 6 years.
How to Interpret
Longer uninterrupted records generally signal stronger income reliability than high yield alone.
A consistent track record through recent years gives confidence your income will continue. This company has shown commitment to shareholder returns.
Sources
Current price ($12.59) is 97% above the ceiling. Wait for a drop to lock in 6% yield.
Current Snapshot
Current Price
$12.59
Max Buy Price
$6.40
Delta
-96.7%
Why It Matters
The price ceiling links valuation discipline to income targets by defining the price that aligns with a 6% yield target.
Formula
6-Year Average Annual Dividend / 0.06Method
Use the 6-year average dividend (not one year) and divide by 0.06 to estimate the maximum entry price for target yield.
Worked Example
With a current price of $12.59 and a ceiling of $6.40, the entry is 96.7% above the ceiling.
How to Interpret
Prices below the ceiling imply a historical yield above 6%; prices above it imply a lower historical yield at entry.
At this price, you won't achieve Barsi's target 6% yield. Consider waiting for a pullback — market volatility often creates more favourable valuations for patient investors.
Sources
BESST alignment is a positive context signal. Non-BESST stocks can still qualify with strong yield and dividend consistency.
Essential services maintain demand regardless of economic conditions - people always need electricity, banking, and telecommunications. Your income is protected by inelastic demand.
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