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APA Group
Utilities · Utilities - Regulated Gas
Updated just now
$9.86
APA Group engages in the energy infrastructure business in Australia. The company operates through Energy Infrastructure, Asset Management, and Energy Investments segments.
View full descriptionThe Warsi Rating combines two proven approaches: value investing principles and dividend strategy. A stock must score 70+ on both to be rated Solid or higher.
MARKET CAP
$13.05B
P/E RATIO
129.9
DIV. YIELD
5.9%
FRANKING
17%
$2.65
Discounted cash flow estimate
$9.07
For 6% dividend yield
Business quality and balance-sheet durability.
Real cash left after running the business
Positive cash generation. Company produces real cash after capital expenditures - can fund dividends, buybacks, or growth.
Current Snapshot
Current FCF
$320M
Pass Rule
> $0
Status
Positive
Why It Matters
Free cash flow is the cash available after core operating and capital needs. It is central to dividend capacity.
Formula
Operating Cash Flow - Capital ExpendituresMethod
Review whether free cash flow is consistently positive and whether it is sufficient relative to dividends and debt needs.
Worked Example
This company generated $320M in free cash flow — cash left after operating costs and capital expenditure. Positive FCF means dividends are funded by real cash generation.
How to Interpret
Sources
Annual dividends as percentage of stock price
APA Group engages in the energy infrastructure business in Australia. The company operates through Energy Infrastructure, Asset Management, and Energy Investments segments. It operates gas transmission and interconnected grids, gas-fired power stations, solar and wind farms, and battery energy storage systems, as well as provides gas storage, processing, and compression facilities. It also provides asset management and operating services to its energy investments and third parties; and invests in energy infrastructure.
In addition, the company engages renewables projects; project construction process, such as horizontal directional drilling construction, pipeline construction process, open-trench construction, and pipeline construction process; and bundled energy systems. Further, it engages in electricity generation. The company also has interests in approximately 15,000 kilometers of gas transmission pipelines; approximately 29,500 kilometers of gas mains and pipelines; and 1.5 million gas consumer connections; and approximately 800 kilometers high-voltage electricity transmission, including 290 kilometers deep-sea cable. The company is headquartered in Sydney, Australia.
Who owns the company's shares and how much leadership has at stake
Management's wealth moves with yours
Professional fund managers have done their homework and chosen to own this
Shares freely traded on the ASX by individual investors like you
A healthy mix — insiders hold 6.3% (they have skin in the game) and professional fund managers hold 41.8% (they’ve done their homework and like the business). This balance is a good sign for long-term investors.
Current Snapshot
Insider %
6.3%
Institutional %
41.8%
Float %
51.9%
Why It Matters
Ownership mix affects governance incentives, liquidity, and share-price behaviour under large portfolio rebalancing flows.
Formula
Public Float (%) = 100 - Insider Ownership (%) - Institutional Ownership (%)Method
Use reported ownership percentages, convert to percentage terms, and compute remaining public float as the residual.
Worked Example
If insiders own 6.3% and institutions own 41.8%, public float is 51.9%.
How to Interpret
Higher insider ownership can improve alignment of incentives, while dominant institutional concentration can amplify short-term price moves.
A healthy mix — insiders hold 6.3% (they have skin in the game) and professional fund managers hold 41.8% (they’ve done their homework and like the business). This balance is a good sign for long-term investors.
Sources
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Mar 2026 | Fazzino (James Ernest) Independent Non-Executive Director | Acquisition at price 6.07 per share. | 2K | $9K |
| 18 Mar 2026 | Phillippo (Rhoda) Independent Non-Executive Director | Acquisition at price 6.07 per share. | 687 | $4K |
| 10 Sept 2025 | Fazzino (James Ernest) Independent Non-Executive Director | Acquisition at price 5.39 per share. | 2K | $9K |
| 10 Sept 2025 | Ficca (Nino) Independent Non-Executive Director | Acquisition at price 5.39 per share. | 1K | $7K |
| 10 Sept 2025 | Phillippo (Rhoda) Independent Non-Executive Director | Acquisition at price 5.39 per share. | 767 | $4K |
Company insiders have been net buyers of shares over the past 12 months. This may indicate management confidence in future prospects.
Value analysis may be affected by missing data.
Market data sourced from third-party financial data providers. Analysis generated using Warsi Criteria — proprietary scoring algorithms for value investing and dividend income analysis. Not financial advice. Learn how we analyse stocks →
Persistently negative free cash flow can force reliance on borrowing or equity issuance to maintain payouts.
Positive cash flow means dividends are funded by actual money, not accounting profits. As Buffett says, "Cash is fact, profit is opinion." Your income is backed by real cash generation.
Profit generated per $1 of shareholder investment
13.3% average ROE meets the threshold, but dropped to 5.2% in a weak year. Consistency matters in this framework.
Current Snapshot
10Y Avg
13.3%
Threshold
10.0%
Worst Year
5.2%
Why It Matters
ROE shows how effectively management turns shareholder capital into profit. High and stable ROE can signal pricing power, cost discipline, or both.
Formula
Net Income / Shareholders' Equity x 100Method
Use the 10-year average ROE and review the weakest year to check whether returns stayed resilient across cycles.
Worked Example
This company's 10-year average ROE is 13.3%, meaning each $1 of shareholder equity generates $0.13 in annual profit. The threshold is 10%, and the worst single year was 5.2%.
How to Interpret
Higher and steadier ROE generally supports stronger long-term compounding. Large drawdowns in weak years can point to fragility.
The average is solid, but the dip shows some vulnerability. At 13.3% ROE, every $1 retained generates $0.13 in annual profit — monitor whether the weak year was a one-off or a recurring pattern.
Sources
How much the company owes vs. what it owns
Debt-to-equity of 7.30 is 4.9x over Buffett's limit. High leverage increases risk during downturns.
Current Snapshot
Current D/E
7.30x
Industry Limit
1.50x
Headroom
-5.80x
Why It Matters
Debt-to-equity shows balance-sheet risk. Lower leverage usually means more flexibility when earnings soften.
Formula
Total Debt / Shareholders' EquityMethod
Compare current D/E against the industry threshold used in the scoring framework, then assess remaining headroom.
Worked Example
This company's D/E is 7.30, meaning it carries 730 cents of debt for every $1 of equity. The utilities & energy infrastructure limit is 1.50, leaving it 5.80 over the limit.
How to Interpret
Lower values generally imply lower refinancing pressure and lower dividend stress in downturns.
High debt means interest payments come before dividends. During recessions, heavily indebted companies often cut dividends first to preserve cash. This adds risk to your income stream.
Sources
Price versus estimated intrinsic value and required return thresholds.
What percentage of the stock price comes back as earnings each year
0.8% earnings yield is below the 6.0% threshold. You'd earn nearly as much from safer government bonds, which means the extra risk of owning shares isn't being compensated.
Current Snapshot
Current Yield
0.8%
Required Yield
6.0%
Spread
-5.2pp
Why It Matters
Earnings yield reframes valuation as return on price paid. It helps compare equity earnings power against lower-risk alternatives.
Formula
(Earnings per Share / Stock Price) x 100Method
Calculate current earnings yield, then compare it to the required yield for the stock's industry setting.
Worked Example
With EPS of $0.08 and a share price of $9.86, earnings yield is 0.8%. The required yield for this industry is 6.0% (based on 4.5% government bond rate plus a risk premium).
How to Interpret
A yield above the required level suggests better valuation support; below it indicates thinner compensation for equity risk.
Returns don't justify the added risk compared to safe bonds. Consider whether the dividend yield alone compensates, or wait for a better price.
Sources
How current price compares with estimated intrinsic value
Consistency of profits over time
10/4 positive EPS years. Limited data - full evaluation requires 8+ years. Monitor closely for consistency.
Current Snapshot
Positive Years
10/4
Allowed Losses
0 (limited)
EPS CAGR
-7.9%
Why It Matters
Consistency in EPS helps distinguish resilient earnings power from one-off performance spikes.
Formula
Positive EPS Years / Available EPS YearsMethod
For 8+ years of data, apply industry-specific loss tolerance. For limited data, every available year must be positive.
Worked Example
This company reported positive earnings in 10 of the last 4 years. With only 4 years of data, every year must be positive. EPS growth rate (CAGR) is -7.9%.
How to Interpret
Fewer loss years and stronger EPS continuity generally improve confidence in future dividend and valuation assumptions.
So far so good, but limited history means we haven't seen how this company handles a full economic cycle. Monitor closely for continued consistency.
Sources
How much earnings are consumed by capital expenditure
Years of earnings needed to retire all long-term debt
Percentage of revenue that becomes profit after all expenses
How efficiently the company turns money into profit
Is the business growing — and is debt being managed responsibly?
Revenue and debt both growing — check whether debt is funding productive growth or covering shortfalls. Sustainable dividends require revenue to outpace debt over time.
Current Snapshot
Revenue Change
+17.6%
Debt Change
+27.9%
Trend State
Mixed
Why It Matters
Revenue trend shows whether the business is expanding or contracting. Debt trend adds context on whether growth is being funded conservatively.
Formula
Revenue Change (%) = (Latest Revenue - Earliest Revenue) / |Earliest Revenue| x 100; Debt Change (%) = (Latest Debt - Earliest Debt) / |Earliest Debt| x 100Method
Map annual revenue history and, where relevant, annual debt history. For financial companies, debt is excluded because deposits and reserves distort this signal.
Worked Example
Revenue changed by +17.6% across the displayed period, while debt changed by +27.9%.
How to Interpret
Rising revenue with stable or falling debt is typically stronger than rising revenue funded by rapidly rising leverage.
Revenue and debt both growing — check whether debt is funding productive growth or covering shortfalls. Sustainable dividends require revenue to outpace debt over time.
Sources
5.52% is close but below Barsi's 6% minimum. Consider waiting for a price drop.
Current Snapshot
6Y Avg Yield
5.5%
6% Requirement
6.0%
Gross Yield
5.9%
Why It Matters
Yield translates dividend income into a percentage of the price paid, which is central to income-first screening.
Formula
Annual Dividends per Share / Stock Price x 100Method
Use the 6-year average annual dividend for consistency and compare the result with the 6% framework requirement.
Worked Example
With a 6-year average annual dividend of $0.54 and a share price of $9.86, the Barsi yield is 5.5%. The minimum requirement is 6%. Including franking credits, the gross yield is 5.9%.
How to Interpret
Higher sustainable yield improves upfront income, but unusually high yields may reflect elevated risk or weak coverage.
At 5.52%, you'd need more capital to generate the same income as a 6%+ yielder. A price drop could make this more attractive.
Sources
Track record of consistent dividend payments
| Ex-Date | Pay Date | Gross | Franking | Net | Credit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ~1 July 2026Est | ~27 July 2026 | ~$0.30 | 23% | ~$0.27 | $0.03 |
| ~31 Dec 2026Est | ~18 Mar 2027 | ~$0.30 | 23% | ~$0.27 | $0.03 |
| Ex-Date | Pay Date | Gross | Franking | Net | Credit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Dec 2025Interim | 18 Mar 2026 | $0.30 | 22.92% | $0.28 | $0.03 |
| 27 June 2025Final | 25 July 2025 | $0.30 | 0% | $0.30 | $0.00 |
| 30 Dec 2024Interim | 27 Jan 2025 | $0.27 | 0% | $0.27 | $0.00 |
| 27 June 2024Final | 25 July 2024 | $0.29 | 0% | $0.29 | $0.00 |
| 28 Dec 2023Interim | 25 Jan 2024 | $0.27 | 0% | $0.27 | $0.00 |
| 29 June 2023Final | 27 July 2023 | $0.29 | 0% | $0.29 | $0.00 |
| 29 Dec 2022Interim | 26 Jan 2023 | $0.26 | 0% | $0.26 | $0.00 |
| 29 June 2022Final | 27 July 2022 | $0.28 | 0% | $0.28 | $0.00 |
| 30 Dec 2021Interim | 27 Jan 2022 | $0.25 | 0% | $0.25 | $0.00 |
| 29 June 2021Final | 27 July 2021 | $0.27 | 0% | $0.27 | $0.00 |
Excellent track record. 10 years of consistent dividends through multiple market cycles.
Current Snapshot
History
10yr
Predictability
Very stable
Payout Health
One-off event
Why It Matters
Payment consistency is a direct test of dividend reliability. Large cuts or skips often appear before confidence recovers.
Formula
Consecutive Years = count of years with dividend payments and no disqualifying skip/cut eventsMethod
Require at least 6 years of history, then check for skipped years and large cuts, allowing approved systemic-event exceptions.
Worked Example
This company has 10 years of dividend history (2016–2025). No suspensions detected — 10 consecutive years of payments. Predictability: Very stable. Payout health: One-off event. The minimum requirement is 6 years.
How to Interpret
Longer uninterrupted records generally signal stronger income reliability than high yield alone.
A 10-year track record through multiple economic cycles gives confidence your income will continue. This company has proven it prioritises shareholder returns.
Sources
Highest price to lock in 6% yield
Current price ($9.86) is 9% above the ceiling. Wait for a drop to lock in 6% yield.
Current Snapshot
Current Price
$9.86
Max Buy Price
$9.07
Delta
-8.7%
Why It Matters
The price ceiling links valuation discipline to income targets by defining the price that aligns with a 6% yield target.
Formula
6-Year Average Annual Dividend / 0.06Method
Use the 6-year average dividend (not one year) and divide by 0.06 to estimate the maximum entry price for target yield.
Worked Example
With a current price of $9.86 and a ceiling of $9.07, the entry is 8.7% above the ceiling.
How to Interpret
Prices below the ceiling imply a historical yield above 6%; prices above it imply a lower historical yield at entry.
At this price, you won't achieve Barsi's target 6% yield. Consider waiting for a pullback — market volatility often creates more favourable valuations for patient investors.
Sources
Industry category of the business
Sanitation is an essential service sector with stable, predictable cash flows - ideal for dividend investing.
Current Snapshot
Industry
Utilities - Regulated Gas
BESST Match
Yes
Score Impact
+3 points
Why It Matters
Sector classification helps contextualise risk and demand durability, which can materially affect dividend stability.
Formula
BESST Match = Sector in {Banks, Energy, Sanitation, Insurance, Telecom}Method
Match company sector or industry against BESST categories. A match adds scoring support but does not replace core dividend checks.
Worked Example
This company operates in Utilities - Regulated Gas (Utilities sector). It matches the Sanitation category — an essential service sector with stable demand, earning a +3 point scoring advantage.
How to Interpret
BESST alignment is a positive context signal. Non-BESST stocks can still qualify with strong yield and dividend consistency.
Essential services maintain demand regardless of economic conditions - people always need electricity, banking, and telecommunications. Your income is protected by inelastic demand.
Sources
How much of a company's earnings are paid out as dividends
The company is paying out more in dividends than it earns (462%). This is unsustainable long-term and often signals a dividend cut ahead. An inflated payout also distorts the price ceiling calculation used in our analysis.
Current Snapshot
Latest Ratio
462.2%
Healthy Range
30%-75%
Zone
Unsustainable
Why It Matters
Payout ratio links dividends to earnings capacity and helps evaluate whether current distributions are likely to remain supportable.
Formula
Payout Ratio (%) = (Annual Dividend per Share / Earnings per Share) x 100Method
Calculate year-by-year payout ratios where EPS is positive, classify each year by sustainability zone, and compare with the current TTM ratio.
Worked Example
$0.57 dividend / $0.08 EPS equals 752.6% payout ratio.
How to Interpret
Ratios in the middle range are usually more sustainable than very high ratios. Values above 100% indicate dividends exceeded earnings in that period.
The company is paying out more in dividends than it earns (462%). This is unsustainable long-term and often signals a dividend cut ahead. An inflated payout also distorts the price ceiling calculation used in our analysis.
Sources
Stock is trading 396% ABOVE the fair-value threshold (includes 25% margin of safety) and above the estimated intrinsic value.
Current Snapshot
Current Margin
-272.1%
Industry Threshold
25%
Status
272% Overvalued
Why It Matters
Margin of safety provides a valuation buffer against modelling uncertainty and adverse business outcomes.
Formula
(Estimated Intrinsic Value per Share - Current Price) / Estimated Intrinsic Value per Share x 100Method
Estimate intrinsic value using a two-stage DCF (10-year projection plus terminal value), then compare with current price.
Worked Example
For this stock now: intrinsic value is $2.65 per share, current price is $9.86, and margin of safety is -272.1%.
How to Interpret
Positive margin indicates price below modelled value; negative margin indicates price above modelled value. Compare against the industry's required buffer.
The market price is above both your required threshold and intrinsic value estimate. Under this methodology, there is no valuation buffer for estimate error or market volatility.
Sources
CapEx consumes 250% of cumulative earnings — above the 100% threshold. Expected for this capital-intensive sector.
Current Snapshot
10Y CapEx Intensity
250%
Threshold
100%
Buffer
-150%
Why It Matters
CapEx intensity estimates how much of earnings must be reinvested just to sustain operations.
Formula
Cumulative CapEx (10yr) / Cumulative Net Income (10yr) x 100Method
Aggregate 10-year CapEx and net income, then compare the ratio with the sector threshold in the framework.
Worked Example
Over 10 years, 250% of this company's cumulative earnings were consumed by capital expenditure. The utilities & energy infrastructure threshold is 100%, leaving a buffer of -150% (over threshold).
How to Interpret
Lower ratios usually indicate better cash conversion. Higher ratios can reduce room for dividends and buybacks.
High capital intensity means most earnings go back into maintaining the business rather than rewarding shareholders. This is typical for this sector but limits dividend growth potential.
Sources
Would take 31.3 years of earnings to pay off long-term debt — above the 8-year threshold. Common for this sector's capital structure.
Current Snapshot
Payoff Years
31.3yr
Target Years
8yr
Gap
-23.3yr
Why It Matters
Debt payoff years converts leverage into an intuitive time measure, making debt burden easier to compare across stocks.
Formula
Long-Term Debt / Average Net Income (3yr)Method
Use current long-term debt and the 3-year average net income to smooth one-off profit noise.
Worked Example
With $14.0B in long-term debt and $447M in average annual earnings (3yr), it would take 31.3 years of earnings to pay off all debt. The utilities & energy infrastructure threshold is 8 years.
How to Interpret
Lower values generally indicate stronger debt capacity. Very high values can constrain dividend resilience.
Higher leverage is structural in this sector, but it means interest payments reduce the pool available for dividends. Monitor debt levels during economic downturns.
Sources
3.1% net margin is below the 10% threshold. May reflect this sector's structural characteristics.
Current Snapshot
Current Margin
3.1%
Threshold
10.0%
Relative Position
-6.9%
Why It Matters
Net income margin shows how much profit the business keeps from each dollar of revenue after all costs.
Formula
Net Income / Total Revenue x 100Method
Compare current margin with the industry-specific threshold to avoid cross-sector distortions.
Worked Example
This company's net income margin is 3.1% — it keeps 3 cents of every revenue dollar as profit after all expenses. The utilities & energy infrastructure threshold is 10%, putting it 6.9% below the requirement.
How to Interpret
Margins that are both strong and stable can indicate competitive strength; persistent weakness may limit reinvestment and payout capacity.
Lower margins in this sector are common, but they leave less cushion if costs rise or revenue drops. Monitor whether margins are stable over time — consistency matters more than the absolute level.
Sources
5.6% ROIC is below the 8.5% threshold. Company may not be earning enough to justify the money invested in it.
Current Snapshot
5Y Avg
5.6%
Threshold
8.5%
WACC Delta
-0.9pp
Why It Matters
ROIC measures capital efficiency. Businesses that repeatedly earn above their funding cost can compound value more effectively.
Formula
After-Tax Operating Profit / Invested Capital x 100Method
Use the 5-year average ROIC and compare it with industry WACC plus the required spread in this framework.
Worked Example
This company's 5-year average ROIC is 5.6%, with a cost of capital (WACC) of 6.5%. The -0.9pp gap below WACC suggests it may be destroying value on each dollar invested.
How to Interpret
A healthy spread above WACC suggests value creation; a narrow or negative spread points to weaker capital efficiency.
Returns below the cost of borrowing mean the business destroys value over time. This can erode the foundation that supports dividends — proceed with caution.
Sources
Contact Energy Limited
Origin Energy Limited
TPC Consolidated Limited
Genesis Energy Limited
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