Loading page content, please wait.
Fortescue Ltd
Basic Materials · Other Industrial Metals & Mining
Updated 11 hours ago
$20.25
Fortescue Ltd engages in the exploration, development, production, processing, and sale of iron ore in Australia, China, and internationally. The company explores for copper and lithium deposits; and rare earth elements.
View full descriptionThe Warsi Rating combines two proven approaches: value investing principles and dividend strategy. A stock must score 70+ on both to be rated Solid or higher.
MARKET CAP
$62.35B
P/E RATIO
18.5
DIV. YIELD
3.9%
FRANKING
100%
$20.49
Discounted cash flow estimate
$30.81
For 6% dividend yield
Business quality and balance-sheet durability.
Short-term assets vs. short-term debts
Annual dividends as percentage of stock price
Fortescue Ltd engages in the exploration, development, production, processing, and sale of iron ore in Australia, China, and internationally. The company explores for copper and lithium deposits; and rare earth elements. It owns and operates rail and port facilities; and focuses on producing green energy and green hydrogen, including derivatives comprising green ammonia, as well as green technology development and manufacturing. The company was formerly known as Fortescue Metals Group Limited and changed its name to Fortescue Ltd in November 2023.
Fortescue Ltd was incorporated in 1983 and is headquartered in Perth, Australia.
Who owns the company's shares and how much leadership has at stake
When leaders own 20%+, they win when you win and lose when you lose
A handful of professional investors are watching
Shares freely traded on the ASX by individual investors like you
The people running this company own a large chunk of it (48.7%). When leadership has their own money on the line, they tend to make decisions that benefit all shareholders — not just their salary. Professional fund managers also hold shares, which is a vote of confidence in the business.
Current Snapshot
Insider %
48.7%
Institutional %
17.1%
Float %
34.2%
Why It Matters
Ownership mix affects governance incentives, liquidity, and share-price behaviour under large portfolio rebalancing flows.
Formula
Public Float (%) = 100 - Insider Ownership (%) - Institutional Ownership (%)Method
Use reported ownership percentages, convert to percentage terms, and compute remaining public float as the residual.
Worked Example
If insiders own 48.7% and institutions own 17.1%, public float is 34.2%.
How to Interpret
Higher insider ownership can improve alignment of incentives, while dominant institutional concentration can amplify short-term price moves.
The people running this company own a large chunk of it (48.7%). When leadership has their own money on the line, they tend to make decisions that benefit all shareholders — not just their salary. Professional fund managers also hold shares, which is a vote of confidence in the business.
Sources
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Mar 2026 | Barnaba (Mark) Deputy Chairman | Unknown | 1K | — |
| 30 Mar 2026 | Marshall (Larry) Director (Non-Executive) | Acquisition at price 13.19 per share. | 895 | $12K |
| 26 Feb 2026 | Marshall (Larry) Director (Non-Executive) | Purchase at price 14.80 per share. | 5K | $73K |
| 26 Feb 2026 | Rao-Monari (Usha) Director (Non-Executive) | Purchase at price 14.80 per share. | 287 | $4K |
| 26 Feb 2026 | Barnaba (Mark) Deputy Chairman | Purchase at price 14.80 per share. | 288 | $4K |
Company insiders have been net buyers of shares over the past 12 months. This may indicate management confidence in future prospects.
Market data sourced from third-party financial data providers. Analysis generated using Warsi Criteria — proprietary scoring algorithms for value investing and dividend income analysis. Not financial advice. Learn how we analyse stocks →
Strong liquidity. 2.43 ratio means ample cash to cover short-term obligations.
Current Snapshot
Current Ratio
2.43x
Warning Floor
1.00x
Target
1.50x
Why It Matters
Liquidity supports operational stability. Companies with weak liquidity can face pressure even when long-term fundamentals are sound.
Formula
Current Assets / Current LiabilitiesMethod
Compare the current ratio to the warning floor and target level used in the framework.
Worked Example
This company's current ratio is 2.43x — it has $2.43 in short-term assets for every $1 of short-term liabilities. The target is 1.5x, with a warning floor at 1.0x.
How to Interpret
Ratios above the target suggest healthier short-term resilience; ratios below 1.0x can indicate immediate funding risk.
Strong liquidity means the company can keep paying dividends even during temporary revenue drops. There's ample cash cushion to weather storms.
Sources
Real cash left after running the business
Positive cash generation. Company produces real cash after capital expenditures - can fund dividends, buybacks, or growth.
Current Snapshot
Current FCF
$3.2B
Pass Rule
> $0
Status
Positive
Why It Matters
Free cash flow is the cash available after core operating and capital needs. It is central to dividend capacity.
Formula
Operating Cash Flow - Capital ExpendituresMethod
Review whether free cash flow is consistently positive and whether it is sufficient relative to dividends and debt needs.
Worked Example
This company generated $3.2B in free cash flow — cash left after operating costs and capital expenditure. Positive FCF means dividends are funded by real cash generation.
How to Interpret
Persistently negative free cash flow can force reliance on borrowing or equity issuance to maintain payouts.
Positive cash flow means dividends are funded by actual money, not accounting profits. As Buffett says, "Cash is fact, profit is opinion." Your income is backed by real cash generation.
Sources
Profit generated per $1 of shareholder investment
27.5% average ROE meets the threshold, but dropped to 9.0% in a weak year. Consistency matters in this framework.
Current Snapshot
10Y Avg
27.5%
Threshold
15.0%
Worst Year
9.0%
Why It Matters
ROE shows how effectively management turns shareholder capital into profit. High and stable ROE can signal pricing power, cost discipline, or both.
Formula
Net Income / Shareholders' Equity x 100Method
Use the 10-year average ROE and review the weakest year to check whether returns stayed resilient across cycles.
Worked Example
This company's 10-year average ROE is 27.5%, meaning each $1 of shareholder equity generates $0.27 in annual profit. The threshold is 15%, and the worst single year was 9.0%.
How to Interpret
Higher and steadier ROE generally supports stronger long-term compounding. Large drawdowns in weak years can point to fragility.
The average is solid, but the dip shows some vulnerability. At 27.5% ROE, every $1 retained generates $0.27 in annual profit — monitor whether the weak year was a one-off or a recurring pattern.
Sources
Price versus estimated intrinsic value and required return thresholds.
What percentage of the stock price comes back as earnings each year
5.4% earnings yield is below the 8.5% threshold. You'd earn nearly as much from safer government bonds, which means the extra risk of owning shares isn't being compensated.
Current Snapshot
Current Yield
5.4%
Required Yield
8.5%
Spread
-3.1pp
Why It Matters
Earnings yield reframes valuation as return on price paid. It helps compare equity earnings power against lower-risk alternatives.
Formula
(Earnings per Share / Stock Price) x 100Method
Calculate current earnings yield, then compare it to the required yield for the stock's industry setting.
Worked Example
With EPS of $1.10 and a share price of $20.25, earnings yield is 5.4%. The required yield for this industry is 8.5% (based on 4.5% government bond rate plus a risk premium).
How to Interpret
A yield above the required level suggests better valuation support; below it indicates thinner compensation for equity risk.
Returns don't justify the added risk compared to safe bonds. Consider whether the dividend yield alone compensates, or wait for a better price.
Sources
How current price compares with estimated intrinsic value
Years of earnings needed to retire all long-term debt
Excellent. Could pay off all long-term debt in 1.0 years — minimal debt burden.
Current Snapshot
Payoff Years
1.0yr
Target Years
4yr
Gap
+3.0yr
Why It Matters
Debt payoff years converts leverage into an intuitive time measure, making debt burden easier to compare across stocks.
Formula
Long-Term Debt / Average Net Income (3yr)Method
Use current long-term debt and the 3-year average net income to smooth one-off profit noise.
Worked Example
With $4.8B in long-term debt and $4.6B in average annual earnings (3yr), it would take 1.0 years of earnings to pay off all debt. The materials & mining threshold is 4 years.
How to Interpret
Lower values generally indicate stronger debt capacity. Very high values can constrain dividend resilience.
Very low debt means maximum financial flexibility. Interest costs barely dent profits, leaving more for dividends. This company can weather downturns without touching your income.
Sources
Percentage of revenue that becomes profit after all expenses
Consistency of profits over time
How much earnings are consumed by capital expenditure
Is the business growing — and is debt being managed responsibly?
Revenue growing while debt is declining — dividends are likely funded by business performance, not borrowing. This is the strongest signal of dividend sustainability.
Current Snapshot
Revenue Change
+64.8%
Debt Change
-39.5%
Trend State
Improving
Why It Matters
Revenue trend shows whether the business is expanding or contracting. Debt trend adds context on whether growth is being funded conservatively.
Formula
Revenue Change (%) = (Latest Revenue - Earliest Revenue) / |Earliest Revenue| x 100; Debt Change (%) = (Latest Debt - Earliest Debt) / |Earliest Debt| x 100Method
Map annual revenue history and, where relevant, annual debt history. For financial companies, debt is excluded because deposits and reserves distort this signal.
Worked Example
Revenue changed by +64.8% across the displayed period, while debt changed by -39.5%.
How to Interpret
Rising revenue with stable or falling debt is typically stronger than rising revenue funded by rapidly rising leverage.
Revenue growing while debt is declining — dividends are likely funded by business performance, not borrowing. This is the strongest signal of dividend sustainability.
Sources
9.13% yield meets Barsi's 6% minimum. Based on 6-year average, not one-time spikes.
Current Snapshot
6Y Avg Yield
9.1%
6% Requirement
6.0%
Gross Yield
13.0%
Why It Matters
Yield translates dividend income into a percentage of the price paid, which is central to income-first screening.
Formula
Annual Dividends per Share / Stock Price x 100Method
Use the 6-year average annual dividend for consistency and compare the result with the 6% framework requirement.
Worked Example
With a 6-year average annual dividend of $1.85 and a share price of $20.25, the Barsi yield is 9.1%. The minimum requirement is 6%. Including franking credits, the gross yield is 13.0%.
How to Interpret
Higher sustainable yield improves upfront income, but unusually high yields may reflect elevated risk or weak coverage.
This yield provides meaningful income that can beat inflation and compound over time. With DRIP enabled, this income can snowball into significant wealth.
Sources
Track record of consistent dividend payments
| Ex-Date | Pay Date | Gross | Franking | Net | Credit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ~31 Aug 2026Est | ~28 Sept 2026 | ~$1.43 | 100% | ~$1.00 | $0.43 |
| ~1 Mar 2027Est | ~30 Mar 2027 | ~$1.22 | 100% | ~$0.85 | $0.36 |
| Ex-Date | Pay Date | Gross | Franking | Net | Credit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Mar 2026Interim | 30 Mar 2026 | $0.89 | 100% | $0.62 | $0.27 |
| 1 Sept 2025Final | 26 Sept 2025 | $0.86 | 100% | $0.60 | $0.26 |
| 26 Feb 2025Interim | 2 Apr 2025 | $0.71 | 100% | $0.50 | $0.21 |
| 4 Sept 2024Final | 9 Oct 2024 | $1.27 | 100% | $0.89 | $0.38 |
| 28 Feb 2024Interim | 27 Mar 2024 | $1.54 | 100% | $1.08 | $0.46 |
| 4 Sept 2023Final | 28 Sept 2023 | $1.43 | 100% | $1.00 | $0.43 |
| 27 Feb 2023Interim | 3 Apr 2023 | $1.07 | 100% | $0.75 | $0.32 |
| 5 Sept 2022Final | 29 Sept 2022 | $1.73 | 100% | $1.21 | $0.52 |
| 28 Feb 2022Interim | 30 Mar 2022 | $1.23 | 100% | $0.86 | $0.37 |
| 6 Sept 2021Final | 30 Sept 2021 | $3.01 | 100% | $2.11 | $0.90 |
Excellent track record. 11 years of consistent dividends through multiple market cycles.
Current Snapshot
History
11yr
Predictability
Variable
Payout Health
High risk
Why It Matters
Payment consistency is a direct test of dividend reliability. Large cuts or skips often appear before confidence recovers.
Formula
Consecutive Years = count of years with dividend payments and no disqualifying skip/cut eventsMethod
Require at least 6 years of history, then check for skipped years and large cuts, allowing approved systemic-event exceptions.
Worked Example
This company has 11 years of dividend history (2016–2026). No suspensions detected — 11 consecutive years of payments. Predictability: Variable. Payout health: High risk. The minimum requirement is 6 years.
How to Interpret
Longer uninterrupted records generally signal stronger income reliability than high yield alone.
A 11-year track record through multiple economic cycles gives confidence your income will continue. This company has proven it prioritises shareholder returns.
Sources
Highest price to lock in 6% yield
Priced well below ceiling. 34% below means you're locking in well over 6% yield.
Current Snapshot
Current Price
$20.25
Max Buy Price
$30.81
Delta
+34.3%
Why It Matters
The price ceiling links valuation discipline to income targets by defining the price that aligns with a 6% yield target.
Formula
6-Year Average Annual Dividend / 0.06Method
Use the 6-year average dividend (not one year) and divide by 0.06 to estimate the maximum entry price for target yield.
Worked Example
With a current price of $20.25 and a ceiling of $30.81, the entry is 34.3% below the ceiling.
How to Interpret
Prices below the ceiling imply a historical yield above 6%; prices above it imply a lower historical yield at entry.
Buying this far below the ceiling locks in a yield well above 6% based on proven historical dividends. Your income starts strong from day one.
Sources
Industry category of the business
Basic Materials is not a BESST sector. Non-BESST stocks receive a lower base score but can still qualify with exceptional dividend metrics.
Current Snapshot
Industry
Other Industrial Metals & Mining
BESST Match
No
Score Impact
No bonus
Why It Matters
Sector classification helps contextualise risk and demand durability, which can materially affect dividend stability.
Formula
BESST Match = Sector in {Banks, Energy, Sanitation, Insurance, Telecom}Method
Match company sector or industry against BESST categories. A match adds scoring support but does not replace core dividend checks.
Worked Example
This company operates in Other Industrial Metals & Mining (Basic Materials sector). It does not match a BESST sector, so it receives the standard base score. Non-BESST stocks can still qualify with strong dividend metrics.
How to Interpret
BESST alignment is a positive context signal. Non-BESST stocks can still qualify with strong yield and dividend consistency.
Non-essential businesses face demand drops during recessions — discretionary spending is first to be cut. This increases cyclical risk for dividends, but companies with decades of consistent payments can still demonstrate durability.
Sources
How much of a company's earnings are paid out as dividends
A 58% payout is in the sustainable range (30–75%) — the company balances rewarding shareholders with reinvesting for growth. This gives the price ceiling calculation a stable base, which is a healthy sign for long-term dividend investors.
Current Snapshot
Latest Ratio
58.0%
Healthy Range
30%-75%
Zone
Healthy
Why It Matters
Payout ratio links dividends to earnings capacity and helps evaluate whether current distributions are likely to remain supportable.
Formula
Payout Ratio (%) = (Annual Dividend per Share / Earnings per Share) x 100Method
Calculate year-by-year payout ratios where EPS is positive, classify each year by sustainability zone, and compare with the current TTM ratio.
Worked Example
$1.10 dividend / $1.10 EPS equals 100.3% payout ratio.
How to Interpret
Ratios in the middle range are usually more sustainable than very high ratios. Values above 100% indicate dividends exceeded earnings in that period.
A 58% payout is in the sustainable range (30–75%) — the company balances rewarding shareholders with reinvesting for growth. This gives the price ceiling calculation a stable base, which is a healthy sign for long-term dividend investors.
Sources
Stock is trading 98% ABOVE the fair-value threshold (includes 50% margin of safety), but still below the estimated intrinsic value.
Current Snapshot
Current Margin
1.2%
Industry Threshold
50%
Status
98% Above Fair Value
Why It Matters
Margin of safety provides a valuation buffer against modelling uncertainty and adverse business outcomes.
Formula
(Estimated Intrinsic Value per Share - Current Price) / Estimated Intrinsic Value per Share x 100Method
Estimate intrinsic value using a two-stage DCF (10-year projection plus terminal value), then compare with current price.
Worked Example
For this stock now: intrinsic value is $20.49 per share, current price is $20.25, and margin of safety is 1.2%.
How to Interpret
Positive margin indicates price below modelled value; negative margin indicates price above modelled value. Compare against the industry's required buffer.
Price remains below the intrinsic value estimate but above your required threshold. Under this methodology, the valuation buffer is thinner, so estimate error and volatility have a larger impact.
Sources
21.9% net margin meets the 15% threshold for this sector.
Current Snapshot
Current Margin
21.9%
Threshold
15.0%
Relative Position
+6.9%
Why It Matters
Net income margin shows how much profit the business keeps from each dollar of revenue after all costs.
Formula
Net Income / Total Revenue x 100Method
Compare current margin with the industry-specific threshold to avoid cross-sector distortions.
Worked Example
This company's net income margin is 21.9% — it keeps 22 cents of every revenue dollar as profit after all expenses. The materials & mining threshold is 15%, putting it 6.9% above the requirement.
How to Interpret
Margins that are both strong and stable can indicate competitive strength; persistent weakness may limit reinvestment and payout capacity.
Adequate profitability for this sector. The business converts enough revenue into profit to support dividend payments and moderate growth.
Sources
Cyclical business - earnings naturally fluctuate with commodity prices. Focus on dividend consistency instead.
Current Snapshot
Positive Years
10/10
Allowed Losses
0
EPS CAGR
11.1%
Why It Matters
Consistency in EPS helps distinguish resilient earnings power from one-off performance spikes.
Formula
Positive EPS Years / Available EPS YearsMethod
For 8+ years of data, apply industry-specific loss tolerance. For limited data, every available year must be positive.
Worked Example
This company reported positive earnings in 10 of the last 10 years. The allowed loss tolerance for this industry is 0 years. EPS growth rate (CAGR) is 11.1%.
How to Interpret
Fewer loss years and stronger EPS continuity generally improve confidence in future dividend and valuation assumptions.
Cyclical businesses have volatile earnings tied to commodity prices. For these companies, dividend track record is more telling than earnings consistency.
Sources
CapEx consumes 59% of cumulative earnings — within the 75% threshold but approaching the limit.
Current Snapshot
10Y CapEx Intensity
59%
Threshold
75%
Buffer
+16%
Why It Matters
CapEx intensity estimates how much of earnings must be reinvested just to sustain operations.
Formula
Cumulative CapEx (10yr) / Cumulative Net Income (10yr) x 100Method
Aggregate 10-year CapEx and net income, then compare the ratio with the sector threshold in the framework.
Worked Example
Over 10 years, 59% of this company's cumulative earnings were consumed by capital expenditure. The materials & mining threshold is 75%, leaving a buffer of +16%.
How to Interpret
Lower ratios usually indicate better cash conversion. Higher ratios can reduce room for dividends and buybacks.
Capital needs are within acceptable bounds but on the higher end. If CapEx requirements increase, there may be less room for dividends and growth.
Sources
BHP Group Limited
Rio Tinto Group
Deterra Royalties Limited
Jupiter Mines Limited
Red Hill Minerals Limited
Scroll to see more