Loading page content, please wait.
BHP Group Limited
Basic Materials · Other Industrial Metals & Mining
Updated just now
$51.23
MARKET CAP
$260.16B
P/E RATIO
28.9
DIV. YIELD
2.5%
FRANKING
100%
BHP Group Limited operates as a resources company in Australia, Europe, China, Japan, India, South Korea, rest of Asia, North America, South America, and internationally.
View full descriptionThe Warsi Rating combines two proven approaches: value investing principles and dividend strategy. A stock must score 70+ on both to be rated Solid or higher.
$16.28
Discounted cash flow estimate
$45.08
For 6% dividend yield
Business quality and balance-sheet durability.
Real cash left after running the business
Positive cash generation. Company produces real cash after capital expenditures - can fund dividends, buybacks, or growth.
Current Snapshot
Current FCF
$9.3B
Pass Rule
> $0
Status
Positive
Why It Matters
Free cash flow is the cash available after core operating and capital needs. It is central to dividend capacity.
Formula
Operating Cash Flow - Capital ExpendituresMethod
Review whether free cash flow is consistently positive and whether it is sufficient relative to dividends and debt needs.
Worked Example
This company generated $9.3B in free cash flow — cash left after operating costs and capital expenditure. Positive FCF means dividends are funded by real cash generation.
How to Interpret
Persistently negative free cash flow can force reliance on borrowing or equity issuance to maintain payouts.
Positive cash flow means dividends are funded by actual money, not accounting profits. As Buffett says, "Cash is fact, profit is opinion." Your income is backed by real cash generation.
Sources
Profit generated per $1 of shareholder investment
Short-term assets vs. short-term debts
Price versus estimated intrinsic value and required return thresholds.
What percentage of the stock price comes back as earnings each year
How much earnings are consumed by capital expenditure
Is the business growing — and is debt being managed responsibly?
Revenue declining while debt is rising — this combination puts dividend payments at risk. The company may be borrowing to maintain its dividend.
Current Snapshot
Revenue Change
-21.3%
Debt Change
+49.1%
Trend State
Weakening
Why It Matters
Revenue trend shows whether the business is expanding or contracting. Debt trend adds context on whether growth is being funded conservatively.
Formula
Revenue Change (%) = (Latest Revenue - Earliest Revenue) / |Earliest Revenue| x 100; Debt Change (%) = (Latest Debt - Earliest Debt) / |Earliest Debt| x 100Method
Map annual revenue history and, where relevant, annual debt history. For financial companies, debt is excluded because deposits and reserves distort this signal.
Worked Example
Revenue changed by -21.3% across the displayed period, while debt changed by +49.1%.
How to Interpret
Rising revenue with stable or falling debt is typically stronger than rising revenue funded by rapidly rising leverage.
Revenue declining while debt is rising — this combination puts dividend payments at risk. The company may be borrowing to maintain its dividend.
Sources
Annual dividends as percentage of stock price
5.28% is close but below Barsi's 6% minimum. Consider waiting for a price drop.
Current Snapshot
6Y Avg Yield
5.3%
6% Requirement
6.0%
Gross Yield
7.5%
Why It Matters
Yield translates dividend income into a percentage of the price paid, which is central to income-first screening.
Formula
Annual Dividends per Share / Stock Price x 100Method
Use the 6-year average annual dividend for consistency and compare the result with the 6% framework requirement.
Worked Example
With a 6-year average annual dividend of $2.70 and a share price of $51.23, the Barsi yield is 5.3%. The minimum requirement is 6%. Including franking credits, the gross yield is 7.5%.
How to Interpret
Higher sustainable yield improves upfront income, but unusually high yields may reflect elevated risk or weak coverage.
At 5.28%, you'd need more capital to generate the same income as a 6%+ yielder. A price drop could make this more attractive.
Sources
Track record of consistent dividend payments
| Ex-Date | Pay Date | Gross | Franking | Net | Credit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ~3 Sept 2026Est | ~2 Oct 2026 | ~$2.14 | 100% | ~$1.50 | $0.64 |
| ~4 Mar 2027Est | ~30 Mar 2027 | ~$1.72 | 100% | ~$1.21 | $0.52 |
Highest price to lock in 6% yield
Industry category of the business
Basic Materials is not a BESST sector. Non-BESST stocks receive a lower base score but can still qualify with exceptional dividend metrics.
Current Snapshot
Industry
Other Industrial Metals & Mining
BESST Match
No
Score Impact
No bonus
Why It Matters
Sector classification helps contextualise risk and demand durability, which can materially affect dividend stability.
Formula
BESST Match = Sector in {Banks, Energy, Sanitation, Insurance, Telecom}Method
Match company sector or industry against BESST categories. A match adds scoring support but does not replace core dividend checks.
Worked Example
This company operates in Other Industrial Metals & Mining (Basic Materials sector). It does not match a BESST sector, so it receives the standard base score. Non-BESST stocks can still qualify with strong dividend metrics.
How to Interpret
Sources
How much of a company's earnings are paid out as dividends
A 54% payout is in the sustainable range (30–75%) — the company balances rewarding shareholders with reinvesting for growth. This gives the price ceiling calculation a stable base, which is a healthy sign for long-term dividend investors.
Current Snapshot
Latest Ratio
54.3%
Healthy Range
30%-75%
Zone
Healthy
Why It Matters
Payout ratio links dividends to earnings capacity and helps evaluate whether current distributions are likely to remain supportable.
Formula
Payout Ratio (%) = (Annual Dividend per Share / Earnings per Share) x 100Method
Calculate year-by-year payout ratios where EPS is positive, classify each year by sustainability zone, and compare with the current TTM ratio.
Worked Example
$1.71 dividend / $1.77 EPS equals 96.4% payout ratio.
How to Interpret
Ratios in the middle range are usually more sustainable than very high ratios. Values above 100% indicate dividends exceeded earnings in that period.
A 54% payout is in the sustainable range (30–75%) — the company balances rewarding shareholders with reinvesting for growth. This gives the price ceiling calculation a stable base, which is a healthy sign for long-term dividend investors.
Sources
10-year ROE trends, dividend history, price ceiling calculations, and every red flag explained.
See the Full BreakdownFree. No card. 10 seconds.
24.1% average ROE meets the threshold, but dropped to 2.3% in a weak year. Consistency matters in this framework.
Current Snapshot
10Y Avg
24.1%
Threshold
15.0%
Worst Year
2.3%
Why It Matters
ROE shows how effectively management turns shareholder capital into profit. High and stable ROE can signal pricing power, cost discipline, or both.
Formula
Net Income / Shareholders' Equity x 100Method
Use the 10-year average ROE and review the weakest year to check whether returns stayed resilient across cycles.
Worked Example
This company's 10-year average ROE is 24.1%, meaning each $1 of shareholder equity generates $0.24 in annual profit. The threshold is 15%, and the worst single year was 2.3%.
How to Interpret
Higher and steadier ROE generally supports stronger long-term compounding. Large drawdowns in weak years can point to fragility.
The average is solid, but the dip shows some vulnerability. At 24.1% ROE, every $1 retained generates $0.24 in annual profit — monitor whether the weak year was a one-off or a recurring pattern.
Sources
Current ratio of 1.46 is below ideal 1.5. Adequate but limited cushion for unexpected expenses.
Current Snapshot
Current Ratio
1.46x
Warning Floor
1.00x
Target
1.50x
Why It Matters
Liquidity supports operational stability. Companies with weak liquidity can face pressure even when long-term fundamentals are sound.
Formula
Current Assets / Current LiabilitiesMethod
Compare the current ratio to the warning floor and target level used in the framework.
Worked Example
This company's current ratio is 1.46x — it has $1.46 in short-term assets for every $1 of short-term liabilities. The target is 1.5x, with a warning floor at 1.0x.
How to Interpret
Ratios above the target suggest healthier short-term resilience; ratios below 1.0x can indicate immediate funding risk.
Limited liquidity increases the risk of dividend cuts if cash flow becomes stressed during a downturn. There's less buffer to absorb surprises.
Sources
3.5% earnings yield is below the 8.5% threshold. You'd earn nearly as much from safer government bonds, which means the extra risk of owning shares isn't being compensated.
Current Snapshot
Current Yield
3.5%
Required Yield
8.5%
Spread
-5.0pp
Why It Matters
Earnings yield reframes valuation as return on price paid. It helps compare equity earnings power against lower-risk alternatives.
Formula
(Earnings per Share / Stock Price) x 100Method
Calculate current earnings yield, then compare it to the required yield for the stock's industry setting.
Worked Example
With EPS of $1.77 and a share price of $51.23, earnings yield is 3.5%. The required yield for this industry is 8.5% (based on 4.5% government bond rate plus a risk premium).
How to Interpret
A yield above the required level suggests better valuation support; below it indicates thinner compensation for equity risk.
Returns don't justify the added risk compared to safe bonds. Consider whether the dividend yield alone compensates, or wait for a better price.
Sources
How current price compares with estimated intrinsic value
Stock is trading 529% ABOVE the fair-value threshold (includes 50% margin of safety) and above the estimated intrinsic value.
Current Snapshot
Current Margin
-214.7%
Industry Threshold
50%
Status
215% Overvalued
Why It Matters
Margin of safety provides a valuation buffer against modelling uncertainty and adverse business outcomes.
Formula
(Estimated Intrinsic Value per Share - Current Price) / Estimated Intrinsic Value per Share x 100Method
Estimate intrinsic value using a two-stage DCF (10-year projection plus terminal value), then compare with current price.
Worked Example
For this stock now: intrinsic value is $16.28 per share, current price is $51.23, and margin of safety is -214.7%.
How to Interpret
Positive margin indicates price below modelled value; negative margin indicates price above modelled value. Compare against the industry's required buffer.
The market price is above both your required threshold and intrinsic value estimate. Under this methodology, there is no valuation buffer for estimate error or market volatility.
Sources
Moderate capital intensity. 51% of earnings goes to CapEx — within the 75% threshold for this sector.
Current Snapshot
10Y CapEx Intensity
51%
Threshold
75%
Buffer
+24%
Why It Matters
CapEx intensity estimates how much of earnings must be reinvested just to sustain operations.
Formula
Cumulative CapEx (10yr) / Cumulative Net Income (10yr) x 100Method
Aggregate 10-year CapEx and net income, then compare the ratio with the sector threshold in the framework.
Worked Example
Over 10 years, 51% of this company's cumulative earnings were consumed by capital expenditure. The materials & mining threshold is 75%, leaving a buffer of +24%.
How to Interpret
Lower ratios usually indicate better cash conversion. Higher ratios can reduce room for dividends and buybacks.
Capital needs are manageable for this sector. The business retains enough earnings to fund both maintenance and shareholder returns.
Sources
Years of earnings needed to retire all long-term debt
Manageable debt. Could pay off long-term debt in 2.0 years — comfortably within the 4-year threshold.
Current Snapshot
Payoff Years
2.0yr
Target Years
4yr
Gap
+2.0yr
Why It Matters
Debt payoff years converts leverage into an intuitive time measure, making debt burden easier to compare across stocks.
Formula
Long-Term Debt / Average Net Income (3yr)Method
Use current long-term debt and the 3-year average net income to smooth one-off profit noise.
Worked Example
With $20.2B in long-term debt and $9.9B in average annual earnings (3yr), it would take 2.0 years of earnings to pay off all debt. The materials & mining threshold is 4 years.
How to Interpret
Lower values generally indicate stronger debt capacity. Very high values can constrain dividend resilience.
Debt is comfortably serviceable from earnings. This means interest payments won't crowd out dividends, even during moderate downturns.
Sources
Consistency of profits over time
Cyclical business - earnings naturally fluctuate with commodity prices. Focus on dividend consistency instead.
Current Snapshot
Positive Years
9/4
Allowed Losses
0 (limited)
EPS CAGR
4.2%
Why It Matters
Consistency in EPS helps distinguish resilient earnings power from one-off performance spikes.
Formula
Positive EPS Years / Available EPS YearsMethod
For 8+ years of data, apply industry-specific loss tolerance. For limited data, every available year must be positive.
Worked Example
This company reported positive earnings in 9 of the last 4 years, with 1 loss year. With only 4 years of data, every year must be positive. EPS growth rate (CAGR) is 4.2%.
How to Interpret
Fewer loss years and stronger EPS continuity generally improve confidence in future dividend and valuation assumptions.
Cyclical businesses have volatile earnings tied to commodity prices. For these companies, dividend track record is more telling than earnings consistency.
Sources
Percentage of revenue that becomes profit after all expenses
17.6% net margin meets the 15% threshold but with limited buffer. A small cost increase could push it below.
Current Snapshot
Current Margin
17.6%
Threshold
15.0%
Relative Position
+2.6%
Why It Matters
Net income margin shows how much profit the business keeps from each dollar of revenue after all costs.
Formula
Net Income / Total Revenue x 100Method
Compare current margin with the industry-specific threshold to avoid cross-sector distortions.
Worked Example
This company's net income margin is 17.6% — it keeps 18 cents of every revenue dollar as profit after all expenses. The materials & mining threshold is 15%, putting it 2.6% above the requirement.
How to Interpret
Margins that are both strong and stable can indicate competitive strength; persistent weakness may limit reinvestment and payout capacity.
Margins clear the threshold but are on the lower end. Monitor for consistency — if costs rise or revenue softens, profitability could dip below acceptable levels.
Sources
| Ex-Date | Pay Date | Gross | Franking | Net | Credit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Mar 2026Interim | 26 Mar 2026 | $1.48 | 100% | $1.04 | $0.45 |
| 4 Sept 2025Final | 2 Oct 2025 | $0.92 | 0% | $0.92 | $0.00 |
| 6 Mar 2025Interim | 3 Apr 2025 | $0.79 | 0% | $0.79 | $0.00 |
| 12 Sept 2024Final | 10 Oct 2024 | $1.11 | 0% | $1.11 | $0.00 |
| 7 Mar 2024Interim | 4 Apr 2024 | $1.10 | 0% | $1.10 | $0.00 |
| 7 Sept 2023Final | 5 Oct 2023 | $1.25 | 0% | $1.25 | $0.00 |
| 9 Mar 2023Interim | 6 Apr 2023 | $1.36 | 0% | $1.36 | $0.00 |
| 1 Sept 2022Final | 29 Sept 2022 | $2.55 | 0% | $2.55 | $0.00 |
| 24 Feb 2022Interim | 24 Mar 2022 | $2.08 | 0% | $2.08 | $0.00 |
| 2 Sept 2021Final | 30 Sept 2021 | $2.72 | 0% | $2.72 | $0.00 |
Excellent track record. 11 years of consistent dividends through multiple market cycles.
Current Snapshot
History
11yr
Predictability
Variable
Payout Health
High risk
Why It Matters
Payment consistency is a direct test of dividend reliability. Large cuts or skips often appear before confidence recovers.
Formula
Consecutive Years = count of years with dividend payments and no disqualifying skip/cut eventsMethod
Require at least 6 years of history, then check for skipped years and large cuts, allowing approved systemic-event exceptions.
Worked Example
This company has 11 years of dividend history (2016–2026). No suspensions detected — 11 consecutive years of payments. Predictability: Variable. Payout health: High risk. The minimum requirement is 6 years.
How to Interpret
Longer uninterrupted records generally signal stronger income reliability than high yield alone.
A 11-year track record through multiple economic cycles gives confidence your income will continue. This company has proven it prioritises shareholder returns.
Sources
Current price ($51.23) is 14% above the ceiling. Wait for a drop to lock in 6% yield.
Current Snapshot
Current Price
$51.23
Max Buy Price
$45.08
Delta
-13.6%
Why It Matters
The price ceiling links valuation discipline to income targets by defining the price that aligns with a 6% yield target.
Formula
6-Year Average Annual Dividend / 0.06Method
Use the 6-year average dividend (not one year) and divide by 0.06 to estimate the maximum entry price for target yield.
Worked Example
With a current price of $51.23 and a ceiling of $45.08, the entry is 13.6% above the ceiling.
How to Interpret
Prices below the ceiling imply a historical yield above 6%; prices above it imply a lower historical yield at entry.
At this price, you won't achieve Barsi's target 6% yield. Consider waiting for a pullback — market volatility often creates more favourable valuations for patient investors.
Sources
BESST alignment is a positive context signal. Non-BESST stocks can still qualify with strong yield and dividend consistency.
Non-essential businesses face demand drops during recessions — discretionary spending is first to be cut. This increases cyclical risk for dividends, but companies with decades of consistent payments can still demonstrate durability.