Loading page content, please wait.
Alcoa Corporation
Basic Materials · Aluminum
Updated just now
$110.27
MARKET CAP
$29.10B
P/E RATIO
24.9
DIV. YIELD
0.4%
FRANKING
—
AAI has red flags on value — see the full breakdown
This is your last free analysis. Sign in for 10 free analyses a day — no credit card required.
Alcoa Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the bauxite mining, alumina refining, aluminum production, and energy generation business in Australia, Brazil, Canada, Iceland, Norway, Spain, the United States, and internationally.
View full descriptionThe Warsi Rating combines two proven approaches: value investing principles and dividend strategy. A stock must score 70+ on both to be rated Solid or higher.
$163.68
Discounted cash flow estimate
Business quality and balance-sheet durability.
Real cash left after running the business
Positive cash generation. Company produces real cash after capital expenditures - can fund dividends, buybacks, or growth.
Current Snapshot
Current FCF
$567M
Pass Rule
> $0
Status
Positive
Why It Matters
Free cash flow is the cash available after core operating and capital needs. It is central to dividend capacity.
Formula
Operating Cash Flow - Capital ExpendituresMethod
Review whether free cash flow is consistently positive and whether it is sufficient relative to dividends and debt needs.
Worked Example
This company generated $567M in free cash flow — cash left after operating costs and capital expenditure. Positive FCF means dividends are funded by real cash generation.
How to Interpret
Persistently negative free cash flow can force reliance on borrowing or equity issuance to maintain payouts.
Positive cash flow means dividends are funded by actual money, not accounting profits. As Buffett says, "Cash is fact, profit is opinion." Your income is backed by real cash generation.
Sources
Short-term assets vs. short-term debts
Profit generated per $1 of shareholder investment
Price versus estimated intrinsic value and required return thresholds.
How current price compares with estimated intrinsic value
Consistency of profits over time
Is the business growing — and is debt being managed responsibly?
Debt growing with stable revenue — check whether new borrowing is productive or a warning sign for dividend sustainability.
Current Snapshot
Revenue Change
+3.1%
Debt Change
+44.6%
Trend State
Mixed
Why It Matters
Revenue trend shows whether the business is expanding or contracting. Debt trend adds context on whether growth is being funded conservatively.
Formula
Revenue Change (%) = (Latest Revenue - Earliest Revenue) / |Earliest Revenue| x 100; Debt Change (%) = (Latest Debt - Earliest Debt) / |Earliest Debt| x 100Method
Map annual revenue history and, where relevant, annual debt history. For financial companies, debt is excluded because deposits and reserves distort this signal.
Worked Example
Revenue changed by +3.1% across the displayed period, while debt changed by +44.6%.
How to Interpret
Rising revenue with stable or falling debt is typically stronger than rising revenue funded by rapidly rising leverage.
Debt growing with stable revenue — check whether new borrowing is productive or a warning sign for dividend sustainability.
Sources
Annual dividends as percentage of stock price
Alcoa Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the bauxite mining, alumina refining, aluminum production, and energy generation business in Australia, Brazil, Canada, Iceland, Norway, Spain, the United States, and internationally. The company operates through two segments: Alumina and Aluminum. It operates bauxite and other aluminous ores mining and processes bauxite into alumina for sale to aluminum smelter customers and customers who process it into industrial chemical products through supply contracts to third parties, as well as aluminum smelting and casting businesses. The company also offers aluminium powder and scrap and primary aluminum in the form of commodity grade ingot and value-add ingot to customers that produce products for transportation, building and construction, packaging, wire, and other industrial markets.
In addition, it provides energy that generates and sells electricity in the wholesale market to traders, large industrial consumers, distribution companies, and other generation companies. The company was formerly known as Alcoa Upstream Corporation and changed its name to Alcoa Corporation in May 2016. The company was founded in 1886 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
Who owns the company's shares and how much leadership has at stake
Leadership has very little personal money riding on the stock price
Few fund managers own this — expect less research and analyst coverage
Shares freely traded on the ASX by individual investors like you
Company leadership owns just 0.0% of shares. Value investors often look for companies where management has significant personal investment — it means they win when you win, and lose when you lose. Low insider ownership doesn’t mean the company is bad, but it’s one less alignment signal.
Current Snapshot
Insider %
0.0%
Institutional %
6.9%
Float %
93.1%
Why It Matters
Ownership mix affects governance incentives, liquidity, and share-price behaviour under large portfolio rebalancing flows.
Formula
Public Float (%) = 100 - Insider Ownership (%) - Institutional Ownership (%)Method
Use reported ownership percentages, convert to percentage terms, and compute remaining public float as the residual.
Worked Example
If insiders own 0.0% and institutions own 6.9%, public float is 93.1%.
How to Interpret
Higher insider ownership can improve alignment of incentives, while dominant institutional concentration can amplify short-term price moves.
Company leadership owns just 0.0% of shares. Value investors often look for companies where management has significant personal investment — it means they win when you win, and lose when you lose. Low insider ownership doesn’t mean the company is bad, but it’s one less alignment signal.
Sources
Both value and dividend analyses may be affected by missing data.
Market data sourced from third-party financial data providers. Analysis generated using Warsi Criteria — proprietary scoring algorithms for value investing and dividend income analysis. Not financial advice. Learn how we analyse stocks →
Current ratio of 1.44 is below ideal 1.5. Adequate but limited cushion for unexpected expenses.
Current Snapshot
Current Ratio
1.44x
Warning Floor
1.00x
Target
1.50x
Why It Matters
Liquidity supports operational stability. Companies with weak liquidity can face pressure even when long-term fundamentals are sound.
Formula
Current Assets / Current LiabilitiesMethod
Compare the current ratio to the warning floor and target level used in the framework.
Worked Example
This company's current ratio is 1.44x — it has $1.44 in short-term assets for every $1 of short-term liabilities. The target is 1.5x, with a warning floor at 1.0x.
How to Interpret
Ratios above the target suggest healthier short-term resilience; ratios below 1.0x can indicate immediate funding risk.
Limited liquidity increases the risk of dividend cuts if cash flow becomes stressed during a downturn. There's less buffer to absorb surprises.
Sources
2.3% average is below the 15% threshold. This suggests the business may lack a durable competitive advantage.
Current Snapshot
10Y Avg
2.3%
Threshold
15.0%
Worst Year
-15.3%
Why It Matters
ROE shows how effectively management turns shareholder capital into profit. High and stable ROE can signal pricing power, cost discipline, or both.
Formula
Net Income / Shareholders' Equity x 100Method
Use the 10-year average ROE and review the weakest year to check whether returns stayed resilient across cycles.
Worked Example
This company's 10-year average ROE is 2.3%, meaning each $1 of shareholder equity generates $0.02 in annual profit. The threshold is 15%, and the worst single year was -15.3%.
How to Interpret
Higher and steadier ROE generally supports stronger long-term compounding. Large drawdowns in weak years can point to fragility.
Lower ROE means your investment compounds more slowly. At 2.3%, this business needs more capital to generate the same returns as competitors. Consider whether other strengths (yield, stability) compensate for weaker profitability.
Sources
Stock is trading 4% BELOW the fair-value threshold (includes 30% margin of safety).
Current Snapshot
Current Margin
32.6%
Industry Threshold
30%
Status
4% Undervalued
Why It Matters
Margin of safety provides a valuation buffer against modelling uncertainty and adverse business outcomes.
Formula
(Estimated Intrinsic Value per Share - Current Price) / Estimated Intrinsic Value per Share x 100Method
Estimate intrinsic value using a two-stage DCF (10-year projection plus terminal value), then compare with current price.
Worked Example
For this stock now: intrinsic value is $163.68 per share, current price is $110.27, and margin of safety is 32.6%.
How to Interpret
Positive margin indicates price below modelled value; negative margin indicates price above modelled value. Compare against the industry's required buffer.
Price is below your required threshold, so you retain a margin-of-safety buffer against normal valuation error and market volatility.
Sources
What percentage of the stock price comes back as earnings each year
4.0% earnings yield is below the 7.5% threshold. You'd earn nearly as much from safer government bonds, which means the extra risk of owning shares isn't being compensated.
Current Snapshot
Current Yield
4.0%
Required Yield
7.5%
Spread
-3.5pp
Why It Matters
Earnings yield reframes valuation as return on price paid. It helps compare equity earnings power against lower-risk alternatives.
Formula
(Earnings per Share / Stock Price) x 100Method
Calculate current earnings yield, then compare it to the required yield for the stock's industry setting.
Worked Example
With EPS of $4.42 and a share price of $110.27, earnings yield is 4.0%. The required yield for this industry is 7.5% (based on 4.5% government bond rate plus a risk premium).
How to Interpret
A yield above the required level suggests better valuation support; below it indicates thinner compensation for equity risk.
Returns don't justify the added risk compared to safe bonds. Consider whether the dividend yield alone compensates, or wait for a better price.
Sources
Cyclical business - earnings naturally fluctuate with commodity prices. Focus on dividend consistency instead.
Current Snapshot
Positive Years
3/4
Allowed Losses
0 (limited)
EPS CAGR
39.0%
Why It Matters
Consistency in EPS helps distinguish resilient earnings power from one-off performance spikes.
Formula
Positive EPS Years / Available EPS YearsMethod
For 8+ years of data, apply industry-specific loss tolerance. For limited data, every available year must be positive.
Worked Example
This company reported positive earnings in 3 of the last 4 years, with 2 loss years. With only 4 years of data, every year must be positive. EPS growth rate (CAGR) is 39.0%.
How to Interpret
Fewer loss years and stronger EPS continuity generally improve confidence in future dividend and valuation assumptions.
Cyclical businesses have volatile earnings tied to commodity prices. For these companies, dividend track record is more telling than earnings consistency.
Sources
How much earnings are consumed by capital expenditure
CapEx consumes 499% of cumulative earnings — above the 75% threshold. Expected for this capital-intensive sector.
Current Snapshot
10Y CapEx Intensity
499%
Threshold
75%
Buffer
-424%
Why It Matters
CapEx intensity estimates how much of earnings must be reinvested just to sustain operations.
Formula
Cumulative CapEx (10yr) / Cumulative Net Income (10yr) x 100Method
Aggregate 10-year CapEx and net income, then compare the ratio with the sector threshold in the framework.
Worked Example
Over 10 years, 499% of this company's cumulative earnings were consumed by capital expenditure. The materials & mining threshold is 75%, leaving a buffer of -424% (over threshold).
How to Interpret
Lower ratios usually indicate better cash conversion. Higher ratios can reduce room for dividends and buybacks.
High capital intensity means most earnings go back into maintaining the business rather than rewarding shareholders. This is typical for this sector but limits dividend growth potential.
Sources
Percentage of revenue that becomes profit after all expenses
9.0% net margin is below the 15% threshold. May reflect this sector's structural characteristics.
Current Snapshot
Current Margin
9.0%
Threshold
15.0%
Relative Position
-6.0%
Why It Matters
Net income margin shows how much profit the business keeps from each dollar of revenue after all costs.
Formula
Net Income / Total Revenue x 100Method
Compare current margin with the industry-specific threshold to avoid cross-sector distortions.
Worked Example
This company's net income margin is 9.0% — it keeps 9 cents of every revenue dollar as profit after all expenses. The materials & mining threshold is 15%, putting it 6.0% below the requirement.
How to Interpret
Margins that are both strong and stable can indicate competitive strength; persistent weakness may limit reinvestment and payout capacity.
Lower margins in this sector are common, but they leave less cushion if costs rise or revenue drops. Monitor whether margins are stable over time — consistency matters more than the absolute level.
Sources
Years of earnings needed to retire all long-term debt
Would take 12.9 years of earnings to pay off long-term debt — above the 4-year threshold. Heavy debt relative to earnings.
Current Snapshot
Payoff Years
12.9yr
Target Years
4yr
Gap
-8.9yr
Why It Matters
Debt payoff years converts leverage into an intuitive time measure, making debt burden easier to compare across stocks.
Formula
Long-Term Debt / Average Net Income (3yr)Method
Use current long-term debt and the 3-year average net income to smooth one-off profit noise.
Worked Example
With $2.4B in long-term debt and $189M in average annual earnings (3yr), it would take 12.9 years of earnings to pay off all debt. The materials & mining threshold is 4 years.
How to Interpret
Lower values generally indicate stronger debt capacity. Very high values can constrain dividend resilience.
High debt relative to earnings means interest payments compete with dividends for available cash. If earnings dip, the dividend is at risk because debt must be serviced first.
Sources
Insufficient dividend history. Barsi methodology requires 6 years of data to calculate average yield.
Current Snapshot
6Y Avg Yield
N/A
6% Requirement
6.0%
Gross Yield
N/A
Why It Matters
Yield translates dividend income into a percentage of the price paid, which is central to income-first screening.
Formula
Annual Dividends per Share / Stock Price x 100Method
Use the 6-year average annual dividend for consistency and compare the result with the 6% framework requirement.
Worked Example
If annual dividends are $0.60 and the share price is $10, dividend yield is 6.0%.
How to Interpret
Higher sustainable yield improves upfront income, but unusually high yields may reflect elevated risk or weak coverage.
Without 6 years of dividend history, we can't assess whether the yield is sustainable or a one-time spike. More data is needed to evaluate income potential.
Sources
Track record of consistent dividend payments
| Ex-Date | Pay Date | Gross | Franking | Net | Credit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 May 2026Final | 5 June 2026 | $0.14 | 0% | $0.14 | $0.00 |
| Ex-Date | Pay Date | Gross | Franking | Net | Credit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Mar 2026Interim | 6 Apr 2026 | $0.14 | 0% | $0.14 | $0.00 |
| 3 Nov 2025Special | 1 Dec 2025 | $0.14 | 0% | $0.14 | $0.00 |
| 11 Aug 2025Final | 8 Sept 2025 | $0.14 | 0% | $0.14 | $0.00 |
| 19 May 2025Special | 16 June 2025 | $0.11 | 0% | $0.11 | $0.00 |
| 3 Mar 2025Interim | 31 Mar 2025 | $0.11 | 0% | $0.11 | $0.00 |
| 28 Oct 2024Final | 25 Nov 2024 | $0.11 | 0% | $0.11 | $0.00 |
| 9 Aug 2024Final | 6 Sept 2024 | $0.10 | 0% | $0.10 | $0.00 |
Only 3 years of dividend history available. Barsi methodology requires 6+ years to evaluate consistency.
Current Snapshot
History
3yr
Predictability
N/A
Payout Health
N/A
Why It Matters
Payment consistency is a direct test of dividend reliability. Large cuts or skips often appear before confidence recovers.
Formula
Consecutive Years = count of years with dividend payments and no disqualifying skip/cut eventsMethod
Require at least 6 years of history, then check for skipped years and large cuts, allowing approved systemic-event exceptions.
Worked Example
This company has 3 years of dividend history (2024–2026). No suspensions detected — 3 consecutive years of payments. Predictability: N/A. Payout health: N/A. The minimum requirement is 6 years.
How to Interpret
Longer uninterrupted records generally signal stronger income reliability than high yield alone.
Without 6 years of history, we can't verify this company maintained dividends through economic cycles. Longer track records provide confidence your income will continue.
Sources
Industry category of the business
Basic Materials is not a BESST sector. Non-BESST stocks receive a lower base score but can still qualify with exceptional dividend metrics.
Current Snapshot
Industry
Aluminum
BESST Match
No
Score Impact
No bonus
Why It Matters
Sector classification helps contextualise risk and demand durability, which can materially affect dividend stability.
Formula
BESST Match = Sector in {Banks, Energy, Sanitation, Insurance, Telecom}Method
Match company sector or industry against BESST categories. A match adds scoring support but does not replace core dividend checks.
Worked Example
This company operates in Aluminum (Basic Materials sector). It does not match a BESST sector, so it receives the standard base score. Non-BESST stocks can still qualify with strong dividend metrics.
How to Interpret
BESST alignment is a positive context signal. Non-BESST stocks can still qualify with strong yield and dividend consistency.
Non-essential businesses face demand drops during recessions — discretionary spending is first to be cut. This increases cyclical risk for dividends, but companies with decades of consistent payments can still demonstrate durability.
Sources
How much of a company's earnings are paid out as dividends
A low 9% payout means the company keeps most earnings for growth. This can be a good sign — but only if the company creates more value with the money it retains than it would by paying it out to shareholders.
Current Snapshot
Latest Ratio
9.5%
Healthy Range
30%-75%
Zone
Low
Why It Matters
Payout ratio links dividends to earnings capacity and helps evaluate whether current distributions are likely to remain supportable.
Formula
Payout Ratio (%) = (Annual Dividend per Share / Earnings per Share) x 100Method
Calculate year-by-year payout ratios where EPS is positive, classify each year by sustainability zone, and compare with the current TTM ratio.
Worked Example
$0.50 dividend / $4.42 EPS equals 11.3% payout ratio.
How to Interpret
Ratios in the middle range are usually more sustainable than very high ratios. Values above 100% indicate dividends exceeded earnings in that period.
A low 9% payout means the company keeps most earnings for growth. This can be a good sign — but only if the company creates more value with the money it retains than it would by paying it out to shareholders.
Sources
Capral Limited
Northern Star Resources Limited
Orica Limited
Perseus Mining Limited
Ramelius Resources Limited
Scroll to see more