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Warsi

Two Legends. One Goal.

Buffett's value investing meets Barsi's dividend strategy — intelligently analyzed for ASX stocks.

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⚠️ Important Disclaimer

Warsi provides intelligent analysis for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. Investment scores are calculated based on publicly documented principles attributed to Warren Buffett and Luiz Barsi. This application is independently developed and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to these individuals or their organizations. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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Capral Limited

CAA · Basic Materials

Proceed with Caution
Current Price

$12.24

Fair Value $8.2049% above
Market Cap: $0.20BUpdated 5 hours ago
93/100
Value
Buffett Analysis
PASS
20/100
Dividend
Barsi Analysis
FAIL
  • ✕Not a BESST sector (Basic Materials). Barsi requires: Banking, Energy, Sanitation, Insurance, or Telecom
  • ✕Dividend yield 4.02% far below 6% requirement (6yr avg)
  • ✕Dividend cut detected (30%+ year-over-year reduction)
  • ✓72% margin of safety

Value Analysis (Buffett Principles)

Return on Equity (ROE)

Profit generated per $1 of shareholder investment

19.7%
Buffett: 20%
2024
14.4%
2023
15.6%
2022
21.5%
2021
27.2%

Dividend Analysis (Barsi Method)

Dividend Yield

Annual dividends as percentage of stock price

6yr AverageSCORED4.02%
Barsi: 6%
Yield 6% or higherNo
Barsi requires 6% minimum to ensure income beats inflation and provides meaningful returns. He uses 6-year average to smooth out one-time special dividends.
FAILED

4.02% yield is well below the 6% target. Not suitable for Barsi's income strategy.

Additional Metrics

Yield (TTM)

3.27%

P/E Ratio

6.51

P/B Ratio

0.89

52W Low

$8.74

52W High

$13.22

Owner Earnings

$0.05B

Intrinsic Value

$0.71B

EPS CAGR

-9.1%

Analysis based on Warren Buffett and Luiz Barsi methodologies. Not financial advice. Learn how we analyze stocks →

!Some Data Unavailable

Buffett analysis may be affected.

  • —10-year EPS history
Buffett wants 20%+ because it signals a 'moat' - something protecting profits from competitors. Only 25 of 1,000 Fortune companies achieve this consistently over 10 years.
FAILED

ROE dropped to 14.4% in a weak year. Buffett requires consistency - one bad year can reveal underlying vulnerability.

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Formula: Net Income ÷ Shareholders' Equity × 100
Example: If a company earns $20M on $100M equity, ROE = 20%. Each $1 you invest generates 20¢ profit annually.
Sources: Warren Buffett's 1987 Letter to Shareholders • Mary Buffett, 'Buffettology'

Debt-to-Equity

How much the company owes vs. what it owns

0.37
Buffett limit: 0.5
Buffett prefers <0.5 because great businesses shouldn't need debt to generate high returns. Low debt also means surviving downturns without bankruptcy risk.
PASSED

Acceptable. Debt level (0.37) is within Buffett's limit of 0.5.

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Formula: Total Debt ÷ Shareholders' Equity
Example: D/E of 0.3 means for every $1 of equity, the company owes 30¢. Lower is safer.

Gross Margin

Profit after production costs, before overhead

30.5%
4-year avg • Target: 40%+
2024
32.1%
2023
31.2%
2022
27.1%
2021
31.7%
40%+ margins indicate pricing power - customers pay a premium even when alternatives exist. Coca-Cola maintains 60%+ margins because of brand power.
FAILED

30.5% average margin is below the 40% standard. May indicate commodity-like business with weak pricing power.

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Formula: (Revenue - Cost of Goods Sold) ÷ Revenue × 100
Example: Selling a $10 product that costs $4 to make = 60% gross margin.

Liquidity Ratio

Short-term assets vs. short-term debts

1.85
Buffett target: > 1.5
1.85> 1.5
A ratio >1.5 means the company has $1.50 in liquid assets for every $1 of debt due within a year. This cushion protects against unexpected expenses.
PASSED

Adequate liquidity. 1.85 ratio meets Buffett's 1.5 target.

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Formula: Current Assets ÷ Current Liabilities
Example: If a company has $200M in cash, inventory, and receivables, but owes $100M within a year, current ratio = 2.0. Plenty of breathing room.

Free Cash Flow

Real cash left after running the business

$43M
Positive cash generation
Positive FCF means earnings are real, not accounting tricks. As Buffett says: 'Cash is fact, profit is opinion.' This cash funds dividends, buybacks, and growth.
PASSED

Positive cash generation. Company produces real cash after capital expenditures - can fund dividends, buybacks, or growth.

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Formula: Operating Cash Flow - Capital Expenditures
Example: A company with $100M operating cash flow spending $30M on equipment has $70M FCF.

Return on Invested Capital

Profit generated per $1 of capital invested in the business

-3.5%
WACC: 9.0% • Threshold: 11.0%
2024
-5.1%
2023
-2.5%
2022
-4.0%
2021
-2.2%
ROIC measures how efficiently a company turns invested capital into profit. When ROIC exceeds the cost of capital (WACC), the company creates value. 10%+ sustained over 5 years indicates a durable economic moat.
FAILED

-3.5% ROIC is below the 11.0% threshold. Company may not be creating value above cost of capital.

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Formula: NOPAT ÷ Invested Capital × 100, where NOPAT = Operating Income × (1 - Tax Rate)
Example: A company with $50M NOPAT on $400M invested capital = 12.5% ROIC. If WACC is 8%, each $1 invested creates 4.5¢ of value.
Sources: Warren Buffett's 1992 Letter to Shareholders • Joel Greenblatt, 'The Little Book That Beats the Market'

Earnings Predictability

Consistency of profits over time

4/10
Positive years • -9.1% CAGR
2024
$1.82
2023
$1.71
2022
$2.22
2021
$2.42
Buffett only invests in businesses he can forecast 5-10 years out. 8+ positive EPS years out of 10 with no losses proves the business generates reliable earnings through economic cycles.
PASSED

Cyclical business - earnings naturally fluctuate with commodity prices. Focus on dividend consistency instead.

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Formula: Count of positive EPS years in 10-year history
Example: A company with 10 consecutive positive EPS years (no losses) demonstrates predictable earnings power that Buffett seeks.
Sources: Warren Buffett's 2007 Letter to Shareholders • Mary Buffett & David Clark, 'The New Buffettology'

Earnings Yield

Return on investment at current price (inverse of P/E)

14.9%
Required: 7.5% (Treasury + risk premium)
Earnings Yield
14.9%
Required Yield
7.5%
Graham Number (P/E × P/B)5.8 ✓
Earnings yield must exceed 10-year Treasury yield plus a risk premium (typically 3%). If bonds yield 4.5%, stocks should yield at least 7.5% to justify the added risk.
PASSED

Strong value. 14.9% earnings yield exceeds threshold, and Graham Number (5.8) indicates undervaluation.

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Formula: (EPS ÷ Stock Price) × 100
Example: A stock at $100 with $8 EPS = 8% earnings yield. Compare to 4.5% Treasury yield: 3.5% premium for equity risk.
Sources: Benjamin Graham, 'The Intelligent Investor' • Warren Buffett's 1992 Letter

Margin of Safety

Discount to intrinsic value (Two-Stage DCF)

$30.65
Buy below this price for 30% margin
Good DealToo Expensive
$0$31$12
Current: $12.2460% below
The cornerstone of value investing. We calculate intrinsic value using Buffett's Two-Stage DCF: 10-year growth projection + terminal value, discounted at Treasury + industry risk premium. Predictable businesses need less margin; volatile ones need more.
PASSED

Exceptional 72% margin of safety. Buying $1 of value for 50¢ or less.

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Formula: (Intrinsic Value - Market Cap) ÷ Intrinsic Value × 100. Intrinsic Value = PV of 10-year growth period + PV of terminal value (perpetuity at 2.5% growth), discounted at Treasury rate + industry risk premium (6-9%).
Example: A bank with $10B owner earnings, 3% growth, 7% discount: Stage 1 PV ≈ $78B, Terminal PV ≈ $154B, Total = $232B. If market cap is $250B, margin = -7.7% (slightly overvalued).
Sources: Benjamin Graham, 'The Intelligent Investor' • Warren Buffett's 1992 Letter: 'When you build a bridge, you insist it can carry 30,000 pounds, but you only drive 10,000 pound trucks across it.' • Buffett's 1988 Coca-Cola valuation (documented Two-Stage DCF example)
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Formula: Annual Dividends per Share ÷ Stock Price × 100
Example: A stock at $10 paying $0.60/year = 6% yield. Buy at $8, and your yield jumps to 7.5%.
Sources: Luiz Barsi interviews • Décio Bazin, 'Faça Fortuna com Ações'

Dividend History

Track record of consistent dividend payments

10 years
2025
$0.40+14%
2024
$0.35-50%
2023
$0.700%
2022
$0.70+8%
2021
$0.65+333%
2020
$0.15-50%
2019
$0.30-43%
2018
$0.53+40%
Skipped YearNone
Cut 30%+Yes
6+ years with no skipped payments or 30%+ cuts proves the company can generate reliable cash through economic cycles. Consistency matters more than yield.
FAILED

Dividend was cut 50% in 2024. Cuts over 30% disqualify a stock.

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Example: A company paying dividends for 20 years, even during 2008 and 2020 crises, proves it can weather storms.

Maximum Buy Price

Highest price to lock in 6% yield

$8.20
Buy below this price for 6% yield
Good DealToo Expensive
$0$8$12
Current: $12.2449% over
Calculated from 6-year average dividend: Price Ceiling = Avg Dividend ÷ 0.06. Buy below this price and you're guaranteed 6% yield based on historical average.
FAILED

Current price ($12.24) is 49% above the ceiling. Wait for a drop to lock in 6% yield.

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Formula: 6-Year Average Annual Dividend ÷ 0.06
Example: If a stock pays $0.72/year on average, price ceiling = $12. Any price below $12 locks in >6% yield.

Sector

Industry category of the business

📊
Aluminum
Basic Materials
BESST SectorNo
BESST sectors (Banks, Energy, Sanitation, Insurance, Telecom) provide essential services with predictable demand regardless of economic conditions. People always need electricity and banking.
FAILED

Basic Materials is not a BESST sector. Barsi's methodology focuses only on essential services with predictable demand.

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Example: During recessions, people cut Netflix but keep paying electricity bills. Essential services = reliable dividends.