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National Australia Bank Limited
Financial Services · Banks - Diversified
Updated 1 hour ago
$41.80
MARKET CAP
$127.72B
P/E RATIO
18.8
DIV. YIELD
3.0%
FRANKING
100%
National Australia Bank Limited provides financial services to individuals and businesses in Australia, New Zealand, Europe, Asia, the United States, and internationally.
View full descriptionThe Warsi Rating combines two proven approaches: value investing principles and dividend strategy. A stock must score 70+ on both to be rated Solid or higher.
$93.27
Discounted cash flow estimate
$26.39
For 6% dividend yield
Business quality and balance-sheet durability.
Profit generated per $1 of shareholder investment
11.4% average is below the 12% threshold. This suggests the business may lack a durable competitive advantage. Note: COVID-19 Pandemic year(s) excluded — ROE recovered to 152% of target.
Current Snapshot
10Y Avg
11.4%
Threshold
12.0%
Worst Year
9.3%
Why It Matters
ROE shows how effectively management turns shareholder capital into profit. High and stable ROE can signal pricing power, cost discipline, or both.
Formula
Net Income / Shareholders' Equity x 100Method
Use the 10-year average ROE and review the weakest year to check whether returns stayed resilient across cycles.
Worked Example
This company's 10-year average ROE is 11.4%, meaning each $1 of shareholder equity generates $0.11 in annual profit. The threshold is 12%, and the worst single year was 9.3%.
How to Interpret
Higher and steadier ROE generally supports stronger long-term compounding. Large drawdowns in weak years can point to fragility.
Lower ROE means your investment compounds more slowly. At 11.4%, this business needs more capital to generate the same returns as competitors. Consider whether other strengths (yield, stability) compensate for weaker profitability.
Sources
Real cash left after running the business
Negative free cash flow means the company is consuming cash. May need to raise debt or equity to fund operations.
Current Snapshot
Current FCF
$-37.2B
Pass Rule
> $0
Status
Negative
Why It Matters
Free cash flow is the cash available after core operating and capital needs. It is central to dividend capacity.
Formula
Operating Cash Flow - Capital ExpendituresMethod
Review whether free cash flow is consistently positive and whether it is sufficient relative to dividends and debt needs.
Worked Example
This company generated $-37.2B in free cash flow — cash left after operating costs and capital expenditure. Negative FCF means the company is consuming more cash than it generates.
How to Interpret
Persistently negative free cash flow can force reliance on borrowing or equity issuance to maintain payouts.
Negative cash flow means dividends may require borrowing - an unsustainable situation. The company is spending more cash than it generates, which can't continue indefinitely.
Sources
Price versus estimated intrinsic value and required return thresholds.
How current price compares with estimated intrinsic value
Consistency of profits over time
Is the business growing or shrinking over time?
Revenue has grown steadily at 24% over 4 years — consistent growth in a financial institution is a positive sign for dividend sustainability.
Current Snapshot
Revenue Change
+23.7%
Debt Change
N/A (financials)
Trend State
Improving
Why It Matters
Revenue trend shows whether the business is expanding or contracting. Debt trend adds context on whether growth is being funded conservatively.
Formula
Revenue Change (%) = (Latest Revenue - Earliest Revenue) / |Earliest Revenue| x 100; Debt Change (%) = (Latest Debt - Earliest Debt) / |Earliest Debt| x 100Method
Map annual revenue history and, where relevant, annual debt history. For financial companies, debt is excluded because deposits and reserves distort this signal.
Worked Example
Revenue changed by +23.7% across the displayed period.
How to Interpret
Rising revenue with stable or falling debt is typically stronger than rising revenue funded by rapidly rising leverage.
Revenue has grown steadily at 24% over 4 years — consistent growth in a financial institution is a positive sign for dividend sustainability.
Sources
Annual dividends as percentage of stock price
3.79% yield is well below the 6% target. Not suitable for Barsi's income strategy.
Current Snapshot
6Y Avg Yield
3.8%
6% Requirement
6.0%
Gross Yield
5.4%
Why It Matters
Yield translates dividend income into a percentage of the price paid, which is central to income-first screening.
Formula
Annual Dividends per Share / Stock Price x 100Method
Use the 6-year average annual dividend for consistency and compare the result with the 6% framework requirement.
Worked Example
With a 6-year average annual dividend of $1.58 and a share price of $41.80, the Barsi yield is 3.8%. The minimum requirement is 6%. Including franking credits, the gross yield is 5.4%.
How to Interpret
Higher sustainable yield improves upfront income, but unusually high yields may reflect elevated risk or weak coverage.
Low yield means you need significant capital to generate meaningful income. Barsi's strategy focuses on stocks that provide substantial cash flow from day one.
Sources
Track record of consistent dividend payments
| Ex-Date | Pay Date | Gross | Franking | Net | Credit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ~13 May 2026Est | ~16 June 2026 | ~$1.12 | 100% | ~$0.78 | $0.34 |
| ~12 Nov 2026Est | ~14 Dec 2026 | ~$1.14 | 100% | ~$0.80 | $0.34 |
Highest price to lock in 6% yield
Industry category of the business
Banking is an essential service sector with stable, predictable cash flows - ideal for dividend investing.
Current Snapshot
Industry
Banks - Diversified
BESST Match
Yes
Score Impact
+3 points
Why It Matters
Sector classification helps contextualise risk and demand durability, which can materially affect dividend stability.
Formula
BESST Match = Sector in {Banks, Energy, Sanitation, Insurance, Telecom}Method
Match company sector or industry against BESST categories. A match adds scoring support but does not replace core dividend checks.
Worked Example
This company operates in Banks - Diversified (Financial Services sector). It matches the Banking category — an essential service sector with stable demand, earning a +3 point scoring advantage.
How to Interpret
Sources
How much of a company's earnings are paid out as dividends
A 77% payout means the company distributes most of its earnings as dividends — more income per share now, but less room for growth. Around 67% is often considered “normal” for established companies. This level feeds directly into the price ceiling calculation.
Current Snapshot
Latest Ratio
77.0%
Healthy Range
30%-75%
Zone
Elevated
Why It Matters
Payout ratio links dividends to earnings capacity and helps evaluate whether current distributions are likely to remain supportable.
Formula
Payout Ratio (%) = (Annual Dividend per Share / Earnings per Share) x 100Method
Calculate year-by-year payout ratios where EPS is positive, classify each year by sustainability zone, and compare with the current TTM ratio.
Worked Example
$1.70 dividend / $2.21 EPS equals 76.9% payout ratio.
How to Interpret
Ratios in the middle range are usually more sustainable than very high ratios. Values above 100% indicate dividends exceeded earnings in that period.
A 77% payout means the company distributes most of its earnings as dividends — more income per share now, but less room for growth. Around 67% is often considered “normal” for established companies. This level feeds directly into the price ceiling calculation.
Sources
National Australia Bank Limited provides financial services to individuals and businesses in Australia, New Zealand, Europe, Asia, the United States, and internationally. The company operates through Business and Private Banking; Personal Banking; Corporate and Institutional Banking; New Zealand Banking; and Corporate Functions and Other segments. It accepts transaction accounts, savings accounts, debit cards, and term deposits; and specialized accounts, such as foreign currency, business interest, cash maximiser, farm management, community free saver, statutory trust, and project bank accounts, as well as farm management deposits. In addition, the company provides home loans, personal loans, and business loans; vehicle and equipment finance; and trade and invoice finance, as well as business overdrafts and bank guarantees.
Further, it offers insurance products consisting of home and content, landlord, travel, car, caravan and trailer, life, and business insurance products; and self-managed super funds, cash management, and financial advice services. Additionally, the company provides investment products; credit, debit, and business cards; payments and merchant services; online and internet banking services; small business services; international and foreign exchange solutions; and industry-specific banking services. The company was founded in 1834 and is based in Melbourne, Australia.
Who owns the company's shares and how much leadership has at stake
Leadership has very little personal money riding on the stock price
Professional fund managers have done their homework and chosen to own this
Shares freely traded on the ASX by individual investors like you
Professional fund managers hold a solid 40.0% — they see value in the business. However, company leadership owns very little (0.0%). While low insider ownership is common in large companies, it means management’s financial interests aren’t strongly tied to yours as a shareholder.
Current Snapshot
Insider %
0.0%
Institutional %
40.0%
Float %
60.0%
Why It Matters
Ownership mix affects governance incentives, liquidity, and share-price behaviour under large portfolio rebalancing flows.
Formula
Public Float (%) = 100 - Insider Ownership (%) - Institutional Ownership (%)Method
Use reported ownership percentages, convert to percentage terms, and compute remaining public float as the residual.
Worked Example
If insiders own 0.0% and institutions own 40.0%, public float is 60.0%.
How to Interpret
Higher insider ownership can improve alignment of incentives, while dominant institutional concentration can amplify short-term price moves.
Professional fund managers hold a solid 40.0% — they see value in the business. However, company leadership owns very little (0.0%). While low insider ownership is common in large companies, it means management’s financial interests aren’t strongly tied to yours as a shareholder.
Sources
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Feb 2026 | Irvine (Andrew) Chief Executive Officer | Sale at price 33.89 per share. | 40K | $1.4M |
| 22 Dec 2025 | Irvine (Andrew) Chief Executive Officer | Other at price 28.02 per share. | 42K | $1.2M |
| 17 Nov 2025 | Irvine (Andrew) Chief Executive Officer | Other at price 28.09 per share. | 25K | $705K |
| 30 Sept 2025 | Auerbach, Andrew Brent Other Executive | Unknown | 41K | — |
| 30 Sept 2025 | Carver (Cathryn A.) Other Executive | Unknown | 47K | — |
Company insiders have been net buyers of shares over the past 12 months. This may indicate management confidence in future prospects.
Value analysis may be affected by missing data.
Market data sourced from third-party financial data providers. Analysis generated using Warsi Criteria — proprietary scoring algorithms for value investing and dividend income analysis. Not financial advice. Learn how we analyse stocks →
Stock is trading 36% BELOW the fair-value threshold (includes 30% margin of safety).
Current Snapshot
Current Margin
55.2%
Industry Threshold
30%
Status
36% Undervalued
Why It Matters
Margin of safety provides a valuation buffer against modelling uncertainty and adverse business outcomes.
Formula
(Estimated Intrinsic Value per Share - Current Price) / Estimated Intrinsic Value per Share x 100Method
Estimate intrinsic value using a two-stage DCF (10-year projection plus terminal value), then compare with current price.
Worked Example
For this stock now: intrinsic value is $93.27 per share, current price is $41.80, and margin of safety is 55.2%.
How to Interpret
Positive margin indicates price below modelled value; negative margin indicates price above modelled value. Compare against the industry's required buffer.
Price is below your required threshold, so you retain a margin-of-safety buffer against normal valuation error and market volatility.
Sources
What percentage of the stock price comes back as earnings each year
5.3% earnings yield is below the 7.0% threshold. You'd earn nearly as much from safer government bonds, which means the extra risk of owning shares isn't being compensated.
Current Snapshot
Current Yield
5.3%
Required Yield
7.0%
Spread
-1.7pp
Why It Matters
Earnings yield reframes valuation as return on price paid. It helps compare equity earnings power against lower-risk alternatives.
Formula
(Earnings per Share / Stock Price) x 100Method
Calculate current earnings yield, then compare it to the required yield for the stock's industry setting.
Worked Example
With EPS of $2.23 and a share price of $41.80, earnings yield is 5.3%. The required yield for this industry is 7.0% (based on 4.5% government bond rate plus a risk premium).
How to Interpret
A yield above the required level suggests better valuation support; below it indicates thinner compensation for equity risk.
Returns don't justify the added risk compared to safe bonds. Consider whether the dividend yield alone compensates, or wait for a better price.
Sources
Excellent. 10 positive years with 43.1% EPS growth rate. Predictable and growing earnings.
Current Snapshot
Positive Years
10/10
Allowed Losses
2
EPS CAGR
43.1%
Why It Matters
Consistency in EPS helps distinguish resilient earnings power from one-off performance spikes.
Formula
Positive EPS Years / Available EPS YearsMethod
For 8+ years of data, apply industry-specific loss tolerance. For limited data, every available year must be positive.
Worked Example
This company reported positive earnings in 10 of the last 10 years. The allowed loss tolerance for this industry is 2 years. EPS growth rate (CAGR) is 43.1%.
How to Interpret
Fewer loss years and stronger EPS continuity generally improve confidence in future dividend and valuation assumptions.
Consistent, growing profits mean predictable, growing dividends. You can forecast your income with confidence - and expect it to increase over time.
Sources
| Ex-Date | Pay Date | Gross | Franking | Net | Credit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov 2025Final | 12 Dec 2025 | $1.21 | 100% | $0.85 | $0.36 |
| 12 May 2025Final | 16 June 2025 | $1.21 | 100% | $0.85 | $0.36 |
| 12 Nov 2024Final | 16 Dec 2024 | $1.21 | 100% | $0.85 | $0.36 |
| 7 May 2024Final | 11 June 2024 | $1.20 | 100% | $0.84 | $0.36 |
| 14 Nov 2023Final | 19 Dec 2023 | $1.20 | 100% | $0.84 | $0.36 |
| 10 May 2023Final | 14 June 2023 | $1.19 | 100% | $0.83 | $0.36 |
| 15 Nov 2022Final | 14 Dec 2022 | $1.11 | 100% | $0.78 | $0.33 |
| 11 May 2022Final | 15 June 2022 | $1.04 | 100% | $0.73 | $0.31 |
| 15 Nov 2021Final | 20 Dec 2021 | $0.96 | 100% | $0.67 | $0.29 |
| 13 May 2021Final | 17 June 2021 | $0.86 | 100% | $0.60 | $0.26 |
10 years of consistent dividends. A dividend cut during a systemic event was excused. Dividends have since grown to 101% of pre-event levels.
Current Snapshot
History
10yr
Predictability
Moderate
Payout Health
Elevated
Why It Matters
Payment consistency is a direct test of dividend reliability. Large cuts or skips often appear before confidence recovers.
Formula
Consecutive Years = count of years with dividend payments and no disqualifying skip/cut eventsMethod
Require at least 6 years of history, then check for skipped years and large cuts, allowing approved systemic-event exceptions.
Worked Example
This company has 10 years of dividend history (2016–2025). No suspensions detected — 10 consecutive years of payments. Predictability: Moderate. Payout health: Elevated. The minimum requirement is 6 years.
How to Interpret
Longer uninterrupted records generally signal stronger income reliability than high yield alone.
The dividend cut occurred during a systemic event, and the company demonstrated resilience by recovering dividends. This suggests management remains committed to shareholder income.
Sources
Current price ($41.80) is 58% above the ceiling. Wait for a drop to lock in 6% yield.
Current Snapshot
Current Price
$41.80
Max Buy Price
$26.39
Delta
-58.4%
Why It Matters
The price ceiling links valuation discipline to income targets by defining the price that aligns with a 6% yield target.
Formula
6-Year Average Annual Dividend / 0.06Method
Use the 6-year average dividend (not one year) and divide by 0.06 to estimate the maximum entry price for target yield.
Worked Example
With a current price of $41.80 and a ceiling of $26.39, the entry is 58.4% above the ceiling.
How to Interpret
Prices below the ceiling imply a historical yield above 6%; prices above it imply a lower historical yield at entry.
At this price, you won't achieve Barsi's target 6% yield. Consider waiting for a pullback — market volatility often creates more favourable valuations for patient investors.
Sources
BESST alignment is a positive context signal. Non-BESST stocks can still qualify with strong yield and dividend consistency.
Essential services maintain demand regardless of economic conditions - people always need electricity, banking, and telecommunications. Your income is protected by inelastic demand.
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