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Harvey Norman Holdings Limited
Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail
Updated 8 hours ago
$4.73
MARKET CAP
$5.89B
P/E RATIO
11.4
DIV. YIELD
6.0%
FRANKING
100%
Harvey Norman Holdings Limited engages in the integrated retail, franchise, property, and digital system businesses. The company franchises and sells products in various categories, including electrical goods, furniture, computerized communications, bedding and Manchester, kitchen and small appliances, bathroom and tiles, and carpets and floorings.
View full descriptionThe Warsi Rating combines two proven approaches: value investing principles and dividend strategy. A stock must score 70+ on both to be rated Solid or higher.
$12.62
Discounted cash flow estimate
$4.46
For 6% dividend yield
Business quality and balance-sheet durability.
How much the company owes vs. what it owns
Acceptable. Debt level (0.48) is within this Buffett-inspired framework's limit of 1.5.
Current Snapshot
Current D/E
0.48x
Industry Limit
1.50x
Headroom
+1.02x
Why It Matters
Debt-to-equity shows balance-sheet risk. Lower leverage usually means more flexibility when earnings soften.
Formula
Total Debt / Shareholders' EquityMethod
Compare current D/E against the industry threshold used in the scoring framework, then assess remaining headroom.
Worked Example
This company's D/E is 0.48, meaning it carries 48 cents of debt for every $1 of equity. The consumer cyclical & retail limit is 1.50, leaving 1.02 of headroom.
How to Interpret
Lower values generally imply lower refinancing pressure and lower dividend stress in downturns.
Low debt means this company isn't at risk of cutting dividends to service loans during downturns. Your income stream is protected by a strong balance sheet.
Sources
Profit after production costs, before overhead
Real cash left after running the business
Positive cash generation. Company produces real cash after capital expenditures - can fund dividends, buybacks, or growth.
Current Snapshot
Current FCF
$511M
Pass Rule
> $0
Status
Positive
Why It Matters
Free cash flow is the cash available after core operating and capital needs. It is central to dividend capacity.
Formula
Operating Cash Flow - Capital ExpendituresMethod
Review whether free cash flow is consistently positive and whether it is sufficient relative to dividends and debt needs.
Worked Example
This company generated $511M in free cash flow — cash left after operating costs and capital expenditure. Positive FCF means dividends are funded by real cash generation.
How to Interpret
Persistently negative free cash flow can force reliance on borrowing or equity issuance to maintain payouts.
Positive cash flow means dividends are funded by actual money, not accounting profits. As Buffett says, "Cash is fact, profit is opinion." Your income is backed by real cash generation.
Sources
Short-term assets vs. short-term debts
Profit generated per $1 of shareholder investment
Price versus estimated intrinsic value and required return thresholds.
What percentage of the stock price comes back as earnings each year
Consistency of profits over time
Is the business growing — and is debt being managed responsibly?
Revenue and debt both growing — check whether debt is funding productive growth or covering shortfalls. Sustainable dividends require revenue to outpace debt over time.
Current Snapshot
Revenue Change
+45.8%
Debt Change
+248.4%
Trend State
Mixed
Why It Matters
Revenue trend shows whether the business is expanding or contracting. Debt trend adds context on whether growth is being funded conservatively.
Formula
Revenue Change (%) = (Latest Revenue - Earliest Revenue) / |Earliest Revenue| x 100; Debt Change (%) = (Latest Debt - Earliest Debt) / |Earliest Debt| x 100Method
Map annual revenue history and, where relevant, annual debt history. For financial companies, debt is excluded because deposits and reserves distort this signal.
Worked Example
Revenue changed by +45.8% across the displayed period, while debt changed by +248.4%.
How to Interpret
Rising revenue with stable or falling debt is typically stronger than rising revenue funded by rapidly rising leverage.
Revenue and debt both growing — check whether debt is funding productive growth or covering shortfalls. Sustainable dividends require revenue to outpace debt over time.
Sources
Annual dividends as percentage of stock price
5.66% is close but below Barsi's 6% minimum. Consider waiting for a price drop.
Current Snapshot
6Y Avg Yield
5.7%
6% Requirement
6.0%
Gross Yield
8.1%
Why It Matters
Yield translates dividend income into a percentage of the price paid, which is central to income-first screening.
Formula
Annual Dividends per Share / Stock Price x 100Method
Use the 6-year average annual dividend for consistency and compare the result with the 6% framework requirement.
Worked Example
With a 6-year average annual dividend of $0.27 and a share price of $4.73, the Barsi yield is 5.7%. The minimum requirement is 6%. Including franking credits, the gross yield is 8.1%.
How to Interpret
Higher sustainable yield improves upfront income, but unusually high yields may reflect elevated risk or weak coverage.
At 5.66%, you'd need more capital to generate the same income as a 6%+ yielder. A price drop could make this more attractive.
Sources
Track record of consistent dividend payments
| Ex-Date | Pay Date | Gross | Franking | Net | Credit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Apr 2026Interim | 1 May 2026 | $0.21 | 100% | $0.14 | $0.06 |
| ~2 Oct 2026Est | ~3 Nov 2026 | ~$0.20 | 100% | ~$0.14 | $0.06 |
Highest price to lock in 6% yield
Industry category of the business
Consumer Cyclical is not a BESST sector. Non-BESST stocks receive a lower base score but can still qualify with exceptional dividend metrics.
Current Snapshot
Industry
Specialty Retail
BESST Match
No
Score Impact
No bonus
Why It Matters
Sector classification helps contextualise risk and demand durability, which can materially affect dividend stability.
Formula
BESST Match = Sector in {Banks, Energy, Sanitation, Insurance, Telecom}Method
Match company sector or industry against BESST categories. A match adds scoring support but does not replace core dividend checks.
Worked Example
This company operates in Specialty Retail (Consumer Cyclical sector). It does not match a BESST sector, so it receives the standard base score. Non-BESST stocks can still qualify with strong dividend metrics.
How to Interpret
Sources
How much of a company's earnings are paid out as dividends
A 59% payout is in the sustainable range (30–75%) — the company balances rewarding shareholders with reinvesting for growth. This gives the price ceiling calculation a stable base, which is a healthy sign for long-term dividend investors.
Current Snapshot
Latest Ratio
59.0%
Healthy Range
30%-75%
Zone
Healthy
Why It Matters
Payout ratio links dividends to earnings capacity and helps evaluate whether current distributions are likely to remain supportable.
Formula
Payout Ratio (%) = (Annual Dividend per Share / Earnings per Share) x 100Method
Calculate year-by-year payout ratios where EPS is positive, classify each year by sustainability zone, and compare with the current TTM ratio.
Worked Example
$0.27 dividend / $0.41 EPS equals 63.9% payout ratio.
How to Interpret
Ratios in the middle range are usually more sustainable than very high ratios. Values above 100% indicate dividends exceeded earnings in that period.
A 59% payout is in the sustainable range (30–75%) — the company balances rewarding shareholders with reinvesting for growth. This gives the price ceiling calculation a stable base, which is a healthy sign for long-term dividend investors.
Sources
Harvey Norman Holdings Limited engages in the integrated retail, franchise, property, and digital system businesses. The company franchises and sells products in various categories, including electrical goods, furniture, computerized communications, bedding and Manchester, kitchen and small appliances, bathroom and tiles, and carpets and floorings. It operates complexes under the Harvey Norman, Domayne, and Joyce Mayne brands. The company is also involved in the property investment and media placement activities; acts as a lessor of premises to Harvey Norman, Domayne, and Joyce Mayne franchisees and other third parties, as well as retail properties; development and sale of properties; and provision of consumer finance and other commercial loans and advances.
The company was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Homebush West, Australia.
Who owns the company's shares and how much leadership has at stake
When leaders own 20%+, they win when you win and lose when you lose
A handful of professional investors are watching
Shares freely traded on the ASX by individual investors like you
The people running this company own a large chunk of it (58.3%). When leadership has their own money on the line, they tend to make decisions that benefit all shareholders — not just their salary. Professional fund managers also hold shares, which is a vote of confidence in the business.
Current Snapshot
Insider %
58.3%
Institutional %
12.4%
Float %
29.3%
Why It Matters
Ownership mix affects governance incentives, liquidity, and share-price behaviour under large portfolio rebalancing flows.
Formula
Public Float (%) = 100 - Insider Ownership (%) - Institutional Ownership (%)Method
Use reported ownership percentages, convert to percentage terms, and compute remaining public float as the residual.
Worked Example
If insiders own 58.3% and institutions own 12.4%, public float is 29.3%.
How to Interpret
Higher insider ownership can improve alignment of incentives, while dominant institutional concentration can amplify short-term price moves.
The people running this company own a large chunk of it (58.3%). When leadership has their own money on the line, they tend to make decisions that benefit all shareholders — not just their salary. Professional fund managers also hold shares, which is a vote of confidence in the business.
Sources
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Sept 2025 | Harvey (Gerald) Executive Chairman | Sale at price 4.80 per share. | 793K | $3.8M |
| 24 Sept 2025 | Harvey (Gerald) Executive Chairman | Sale at price 4.84 per share. | 1.1M | $5.5M |
| 16 Sept 2025 | Harvey (Gerald) Executive Chairman | Other at price 4.94 per share. | 2.1M | $10.4M |
| 11 Sept 2025 | Harvey (Gerald) Executive Chairman | Sale at price 4.86 per share. | 975K | $4.7M |
| 10 Sept 2025 | Harvey (Gerald) Executive Chairman | Sale at price 4.85 per share. | 321K | $1.6M |
Company insiders have been net sellers of shares over the past 12 months. Insider selling can occur for many reasons (tax, diversification) and is not necessarily negative.
Market data sourced from third-party financial data providers. Analysis generated using Warsi Criteria — proprietary scoring algorithms for value investing and dividend income analysis. Not financial advice. Learn how we analyse stocks →
Healthy 52.3% average margin suggests sustainable competitive advantage.
Current Snapshot
10Y Avg
52.3%
Threshold
40%
Worst Year
50.8%
Why It Matters
Gross margin indicates how much room a business has to absorb costs and still generate profit.
Formula
(Revenue - Cost of Goods Sold) / Revenue x 100Method
Assess both the long-term average and the weakest year. The framework checks for both level and consistency.
Worked Example
This company's 10-year average gross margin is 52.3% — it keeps 52 cents of every revenue dollar after production costs. The threshold is 40%, and the weakest year was 50.8%.
How to Interpret
Sustained high margins usually support durability. Sharp margin swings can signal weaker control or cyclical pressure.
Strong margins mean the company has pricing power. They can maintain profitability even if costs rise - protecting the dividend during inflationary periods.
Sources
Current ratio of 1.38 is below ideal 1.5. Adequate but limited cushion for unexpected expenses.
Current Snapshot
Current Ratio
1.38x
Warning Floor
1.00x
Target
1.50x
Why It Matters
Liquidity supports operational stability. Companies with weak liquidity can face pressure even when long-term fundamentals are sound.
Formula
Current Assets / Current LiabilitiesMethod
Compare the current ratio to the warning floor and target level used in the framework.
Worked Example
This company's current ratio is 1.38x — it has $1.38 in short-term assets for every $1 of short-term liabilities. The target is 1.5x, with a warning floor at 1.0x.
How to Interpret
Ratios above the target suggest healthier short-term resilience; ratios below 1.0x can indicate immediate funding risk.
Limited liquidity increases the risk of dividend cuts if cash flow becomes stressed during a downturn. There's less buffer to absorb surprises.
Sources
14.2% average is below the 15% threshold. This suggests the business may lack a durable competitive advantage.
Current Snapshot
10Y Avg
14.2%
Threshold
15.0%
Worst Year
7.8%
Why It Matters
ROE shows how effectively management turns shareholder capital into profit. High and stable ROE can signal pricing power, cost discipline, or both.
Formula
Net Income / Shareholders' Equity x 100Method
Use the 10-year average ROE and review the weakest year to check whether returns stayed resilient across cycles.
Worked Example
This company's 10-year average ROE is 14.2%, meaning each $1 of shareholder equity generates $0.14 in annual profit. The threshold is 15%, and the worst single year was 7.8%.
How to Interpret
Higher and steadier ROE generally supports stronger long-term compounding. Large drawdowns in weak years can point to fragility.
Lower ROE means your investment compounds more slowly. At 14.2%, this business needs more capital to generate the same returns as competitors. Consider whether other strengths (yield, stability) compensate for weaker profitability.
Sources
Strong value. 8.8% earnings yield exceeds the threshold, and multiple valuation checks confirm it's attractively priced.
Current Snapshot
Current Yield
8.8%
Required Yield
7.5%
Spread
+1.3pp
Why It Matters
Earnings yield reframes valuation as return on price paid. It helps compare equity earnings power against lower-risk alternatives.
Formula
(Earnings per Share / Stock Price) x 100Method
Calculate current earnings yield, then compare it to the required yield for the stock's industry setting.
Worked Example
With EPS of $0.41 and a share price of $4.73, earnings yield is 8.8%. The required yield for this industry is 7.5% (based on 4.5% government bond rate plus a risk premium).
How to Interpret
A yield above the required level suggests better valuation support; below it indicates thinner compensation for equity risk.
Multiple ways of measuring value agree: you're getting a fair deal. The stock offers solid returns compared to what you'd earn from safe bonds.
Sources
How current price compares with estimated intrinsic value
Exceptional discount: 50% BELOW the fair-value threshold (includes 25% margin of safety).
Current Snapshot
Current Margin
62.5%
Industry Threshold
25%
Status
50% Undervalued
Why It Matters
Margin of safety provides a valuation buffer against modelling uncertainty and adverse business outcomes.
Formula
(Estimated Intrinsic Value per Share - Current Price) / Estimated Intrinsic Value per Share x 100Method
Estimate intrinsic value using a two-stage DCF (10-year projection plus terminal value), then compare with current price.
Worked Example
For this stock now: intrinsic value is $12.62 per share, current price is $4.73, and margin of safety is 62.5%.
How to Interpret
Positive margin indicates price below modelled value; negative margin indicates price above modelled value. Compare against the industry's required buffer.
The market price sits far below your required entry threshold, providing a substantial valuation buffer if assumptions prove optimistic.
Sources
10/10 positive EPS years demonstrates highly predictable earnings through multiple economic cycles.
Current Snapshot
Positive Years
10/10
Allowed Losses
1
EPS CAGR
3.6%
Why It Matters
Consistency in EPS helps distinguish resilient earnings power from one-off performance spikes.
Formula
Positive EPS Years / Available EPS YearsMethod
For 8+ years of data, apply industry-specific loss tolerance. For limited data, every available year must be positive.
Worked Example
This company reported positive earnings in 10 of the last 10 years. The allowed loss tolerance for this industry is 1 year. EPS growth rate (CAGR) is 3.6%.
How to Interpret
Fewer loss years and stronger EPS continuity generally improve confidence in future dividend and valuation assumptions.
A perfect track record through multiple economic cycles means this company generates profits in good times and bad. Your dividend has a solid foundation.
Sources
How much earnings are consumed by capital expenditure
Moderate capital intensity. 30% of earnings goes to CapEx — within the 50% threshold for this sector.
Current Snapshot
10Y CapEx Intensity
30%
Threshold
50%
Buffer
+20%
Why It Matters
CapEx intensity estimates how much of earnings must be reinvested just to sustain operations.
Formula
Cumulative CapEx (10yr) / Cumulative Net Income (10yr) x 100Method
Aggregate 10-year CapEx and net income, then compare the ratio with the sector threshold in the framework.
Worked Example
Over 10 years, 30% of this company's cumulative earnings were consumed by capital expenditure. The consumer cyclical & retail threshold is 50%, leaving a buffer of +20%.
How to Interpret
Lower ratios usually indicate better cash conversion. Higher ratios can reduce room for dividends and buybacks.
Capital needs are manageable for this sector. The business retains enough earnings to fund both maintenance and shareholder returns.
Sources
Years of earnings needed to retire all long-term debt
Excellent. Could pay off all long-term debt in 0.8 years — minimal debt burden.
Current Snapshot
Payoff Years
0.8yr
Target Years
4yr
Gap
+3.2yr
Why It Matters
Debt payoff years converts leverage into an intuitive time measure, making debt burden easier to compare across stocks.
Formula
Long-Term Debt / Average Net Income (3yr)Method
Use current long-term debt and the 3-year average net income to smooth one-off profit noise.
Worked Example
With $358M in long-term debt and $470M in average annual earnings (3yr), it would take 0.8 years of earnings to pay off all debt. The consumer cyclical & retail threshold is 4 years.
How to Interpret
Lower values generally indicate stronger debt capacity. Very high values can constrain dividend resilience.
Very low debt means maximum financial flexibility. Interest costs barely dent profits, leaving more for dividends. This company can weather downturns without touching your income.
Sources
Percentage of revenue that becomes profit after all expenses
Strong 12.6% net margin — well above the 5% threshold for this sector.
Current Snapshot
Current Margin
12.6%
Threshold
5.0%
Relative Position
+7.6%
Why It Matters
Net income margin shows how much profit the business keeps from each dollar of revenue after all costs.
Formula
Net Income / Total Revenue x 100Method
Compare current margin with the industry-specific threshold to avoid cross-sector distortions.
Worked Example
This company's net income margin is 12.6% — it keeps 13 cents of every revenue dollar as profit after all expenses. The consumer cyclical & retail threshold is 5%, putting it 7.6% above the requirement.
How to Interpret
Margins that are both strong and stable can indicate competitive strength; persistent weakness may limit reinvestment and payout capacity.
High margins provide a comfortable buffer against rising costs or temporary revenue drops. Dividends are well-supported by consistent profitability.
Sources
How efficiently the company turns money into profit
9.1% ROIC is below the 10.5% threshold. Company may not be earning enough to justify the money invested in it.
Current Snapshot
5Y Avg
9.1%
Threshold
10.5%
WACC Delta
+0.6pp
Why It Matters
ROIC measures capital efficiency. Businesses that repeatedly earn above their funding cost can compound value more effectively.
Formula
After-Tax Operating Profit / Invested Capital x 100Method
Use the 5-year average ROIC and compare it with industry WACC plus the required spread in this framework.
Worked Example
This company's 5-year average ROIC is 9.1%, with a cost of capital (WACC) of 8.5%. The +0.6pp spread above WACC suggests it creates value on each dollar invested.
How to Interpret
A healthy spread above WACC suggests value creation; a narrow or negative spread points to weaker capital efficiency.
Returns below the cost of borrowing mean the business destroys value over time. This can erode the foundation that supports dividends — proceed with caution.
Sources
| Ex-Date | Pay Date | Gross | Franking | Net | Credit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Oct 2025Final | 3 Nov 2025 | $0.21 | 100% | $0.14 | $0.06 |
| 2 Apr 2025Interim | 1 May 2025 | $0.17 | 100% | $0.12 | $0.05 |
| 15 Oct 2024Final | 13 Nov 2024 | $0.17 | 100% | $0.12 | $0.05 |
| 2 Apr 2024Interim | 7 May 2024 | $0.14 | 100% | $0.10 | $0.04 |
| 13 Oct 2023Final | 13 Nov 2023 | $0.17 | 100% | $0.12 | $0.05 |
| 31 Mar 2023Interim | 1 May 2023 | $0.19 | 100% | $0.13 | $0.06 |
| 14 Oct 2022Final | 14 Nov 2022 | $0.25 | 100% | $0.17 | $0.07 |
| 31 Mar 2022Interim | 2 May 2022 | $0.29 | 100% | $0.20 | $0.09 |
| 15 Oct 2021Final | 15 Nov 2021 | $0.21 | 100% | $0.15 | $0.06 |
| 31 Mar 2021Interim | 3 May 2021 | $0.29 | 100% | $0.20 | $0.09 |
Excellent track record. 11 years of consistent dividends through multiple market cycles.
Current Snapshot
History
11yr
Predictability
Moderate
Payout Health
Elevated
Why It Matters
Payment consistency is a direct test of dividend reliability. Large cuts or skips often appear before confidence recovers.
Formula
Consecutive Years = count of years with dividend payments and no disqualifying skip/cut eventsMethod
Require at least 6 years of history, then check for skipped years and large cuts, allowing approved systemic-event exceptions.
Worked Example
This company has 11 years of dividend history (2016–2026). No suspensions detected — 11 consecutive years of payments. Predictability: Moderate. Payout health: Elevated. The minimum requirement is 6 years.
How to Interpret
Longer uninterrupted records generally signal stronger income reliability than high yield alone.
A 11-year track record through multiple economic cycles gives confidence your income will continue. This company has proven it prioritises shareholder returns.
Sources
Current price ($4.73) is 6% above the ceiling. Wait for a drop to lock in 6% yield.
Current Snapshot
Current Price
$4.73
Max Buy Price
$4.46
Delta
-6.1%
Why It Matters
The price ceiling links valuation discipline to income targets by defining the price that aligns with a 6% yield target.
Formula
6-Year Average Annual Dividend / 0.06Method
Use the 6-year average dividend (not one year) and divide by 0.06 to estimate the maximum entry price for target yield.
Worked Example
With a current price of $4.73 and a ceiling of $4.46, the entry is 6.1% above the ceiling.
How to Interpret
Prices below the ceiling imply a historical yield above 6%; prices above it imply a lower historical yield at entry.
At this price, you won't achieve Barsi's target 6% yield. Consider waiting for a pullback — market volatility often creates more favourable valuations for patient investors.
Sources
BESST alignment is a positive context signal. Non-BESST stocks can still qualify with strong yield and dividend consistency.
Non-essential businesses face demand drops during recessions — discretionary spending is first to be cut. This increases cyclical risk for dividends, but companies with decades of consistent payments can still demonstrate durability.
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