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Helia Group Limited

HLI · Financial Services

Proceed with Caution

Current Price

$5.86

Fair Value $7.6523% below

Market Cap: $1.60BUpdated 43 minutes ago

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40/100

Value

Buffett Analysis

FAIL

92/100

Dividend

Barsi Analysis

PASS

✕Less than 8 positive EPS years - Too volatile for insurance

✓7.8% yield - Above 6% target
✓10yr dividend history (pandemic exception applied)
✓Price 23% below max buy price

Value Analysis (Buffett Principles)

Return on Equity (ROE)

Profit generated per $1 of shareholder investment

17.8%

Bank threshold: 12%

2024

21.4%

2023

24.1%

2022

13.1%

2021

12.4%

Dividend Analysis (Barsi Method)

Dividend Yield

Annual dividends as percentage of stock price

6yr AverageSCORED7.84%

Barsi: 6%

Yield 6% or higherYes

Barsi requires 6% minimum to ensure income beats inflation and provides meaningful returns. He uses 6-year average to smooth out one-time special dividends.

PASSED

7.84% yield meets Barsi's 6% minimum. Based on 6-year average, not one-time spikes.

Additional Metrics

Yield (TTM)

5.48%

P/E Ratio

6.10

P/B Ratio

1.56

52W Low

$3.43

52W High

$6.19

Owner Earnings

$0.29B

Intrinsic Value

$12.22B

EPS CAGR

19.5%

About Helia Group Limited

Helia Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, is involved in the loan mortgage insurance business primarily in Australia. The company facilitates residential mortgage lending by transferring risk from lenders to lenders mortgage insurance (LMI) providers, primarily for high loan to value ratio residential mortgage loans; and portfolio of seasoned home loans. The company was formerly known as Genworth Mortgage Insurance Australia Limited and changed its name to Helia Group Limited in November 2022. The company was founded in 1965 and is headquartered in North Sydney, Australia.

Analysis based on Warren Buffett and Luiz Barsi methodologies. Not financial advice. Learn how we analyze stocks →

!Some Data Unavailable

Buffett analysis may be affected.

—10-year EPS history

Free Cash Flow

Real cash left after running the business

$134M

Positive cash generation

Positive FCF means earnings are real, not accounting tricks. As Buffett says: 'Cash is fact, profit is opinion.' This cash funds dividends, buybacks, and growth.

PASSED

Positive cash generation. Company produces real cash after capital expenditures - can fund dividends, buybacks, or growth.

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Formula: Operating Cash Flow - Capital Expenditures

Example: A company with $100M operating cash flow spending $30M on equipment has $70M FCF.

Earnings Predictability

Consistency of profits over time

4/10

Positive years • 19.5% CAGR

2024

$0.80

2023

$0.85

2022

$0.49

2021

$0.47

Buffett only invests in businesses he can forecast 5-10 years out. 8+ positive EPS years out of 10 with no losses proves the business generates reliable earnings through economic cycles.

FAILED

Only 4/10 positive EPS years. Buffett requires predictable earnings he can forecast 5-10 years out.

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Formula: Count of positive EPS years in 10-year history

Example: A company with 10 consecutive positive EPS years (no losses) demonstrates predictable earnings power that Buffett seeks.

Sources: Warren Buffett's 2007 Letter to Shareholders • Mary Buffett & David Clark, 'The New Buffettology'

Earnings Yield

Return on investment at current price (inverse of P/E)

13.6%

Required: 7.0% (Treasury + risk premium)

Earnings Yield

13.6%

Required Yield

7.0%

Graham Number (P/E × P/B)9.5 ✓

Earnings yield must exceed 10-year Treasury yield plus a risk premium (typically 3%). If bonds yield 4.5%, stocks should yield at least 7.5% to justify the added risk.

PASSED

Strong value. 13.6% earnings yield exceeds threshold, and Graham Number (9.5) indicates undervaluation.

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Formula: (EPS ÷ Stock Price) × 100

Example: A stock at $100 with $8 EPS = 8% earnings yield. Compare to 4.5% Treasury yield: 3.5% premium for equity risk.

Sources: Benjamin Graham, 'The Intelligent Investor' • Warren Buffett's 1992 Letter

Margin of Safety

Discount to intrinsic value (Two-Stage DCF)

$31.40

Buy below this price for 30% margin

Good DealToo Expensive

$0$31$6

Current: $5.8681% below

The cornerstone of value investing. We calculate intrinsic value using Buffett's Two-Stage DCF: 10-year growth projection + terminal value, discounted at Treasury + industry risk premium. Predictable businesses need less margin; volatile ones need more.

PASSED

Exceptional 87% margin of safety. Buying $1 of value for 50¢ or less.

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Formula:

(Intrinsic Value - Market Cap) ÷ Intrinsic Value × 100. Intrinsic Value = PV of 10-year growth period + PV of terminal value (perpetuity at 2.5% growth), discounted at Treasury rate + industry risk premium (6-9%).

Example: A bank with $10B owner earnings, 3% growth, 7% discount: Stage 1 PV ≈ $78B, Terminal PV ≈ $154B, Total = $232B. If market cap is $250B, margin = -7.7% (slightly overvalued).

Sources: Benjamin Graham, 'The Intelligent Investor' • Warren Buffett's 1992 Letter: 'When you build a bridge, you insist it can carry 30,000 pounds, but you only drive 10,000 pound trucks across it.' • Buffett's 1988 Coca-Cola valuation (documented Two-Stage DCF example)

Dividend History

Track record of consistent dividend payments

10 years

2025

$1.12+87%

2024

$0.60+9%

2023

$0.55+53%

2022

$0.36+620%

2021

$0.05-33%

2020

$0.07-88%

2019

$0.64+167%

2018

$0.24-14%

Skipped YearNone

Cut 30%+Exception

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Pandemic Exception Applied

Dividend reduced during 2020-2021 but recovered to 86% of pre-pandemic levels

6+ years with no skipped payments or 30%+ cuts proves the company can generate reliable cash through economic cycles. Consistency matters more than yield.

PASSED

10 years of dividends with 2020-2021 pandemic exception applied. Recovered to 86% of pre-pandemic levels.

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Example: A company paying dividends for 20 years, even during 2008 and 2020 crises, proves it can weather storms.

Maximum Buy Price

Highest price to lock in 6% yield

$7.65

Buy below this price for 6% yield

Good DealToo Expensive

$0$8$6

Current: $5.8623% below

Calculated from 6-year average dividend: Price Ceiling = Avg Dividend ÷ 0.06. Buy below this price and you're guaranteed 6% yield based on historical average.

PASSED

Excellent entry point. 23% below ceiling means you're locking in well over 6% yield.

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Formula: 6-Year Average Annual Dividend ÷ 0.06

Example: If a stock pays $0.72/year on average, price ceiling = $12. Any price below $12 locks in >6% yield.

Value Analysis (Buffett Principles)

Return on Equity (ROE)

Dividend Analysis (Barsi Method)

Dividend Yield

Additional Metrics

About Helia Group Limited

!Some Data Unavailable

Free Cash Flow

Earnings Predictability

Earnings Yield

Margin of Safety

Dividend History

Maximum Buy Price

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