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Buffett's value investing meets Barsi's dividend strategy — intelligently analyzed for ASX stocks.

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Warsi provides intelligent analysis for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. Investment scores are calculated based on publicly documented principles attributed to Warren Buffett and Luiz Barsi. This application is independently developed and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to these individuals or their organizations. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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Heartland Group Holdings Limited

HGH · Financial Services

Proceed with Caution
Current Price

$1.05

Fair Value $0.9016% above
Market Cap: $0.98BUpdated 5 hours ago
20/100
Value
Buffett Analysis
FAIL
89/100
Dividend
Barsi Analysis
PASS
  • ✕ROE below 12% - Banks need consistent double-digit returns
  • ✕ROE fell below 8% - Not resilient in downturns
  • ✕Less than 8 positive EPS years - Too volatile even for banking
  • ✓7.7% yield - Above 6% target
  • ✓8yr dividend history (pandemic exception applied)
  • ✓Price 22% below max buy price

Value Analysis (Buffett Principles)

Return on Equity (ROE)

Profit generated per $1 of shareholder investment

7.6%
Bank threshold: 12%
2025
3.2%
2024
6.0%
2023
9.3%
2022
11.8%

Dividend Analysis (Barsi Method)

Dividend Yield

Annual dividends as percentage of stock price

6yr AverageSCORED7.69%
Barsi: 6%
Yield 6% or higherYes
Barsi requires 6% minimum to ensure income beats inflation and provides meaningful returns. He uses 6-year average to smooth out one-time special dividends.
PASSED

7.69% yield meets Barsi's 6% minimum. Based on 6-year average, not one-time spikes.

Additional Metrics

Yield (TTM)

3.81%

P/E Ratio

26.13

P/B Ratio

0.94

52W Low

$0.66

52W High

$1.10

Owner Earnings

$0.06B

Intrinsic Value

$1.21B

EPS CAGR

-36.0%

Analysis based on Warren Buffett and Luiz Barsi methodologies. Not financial advice. Learn how we analyze stocks →

!Some Data Unavailable

Buffett analysis may be affected.

  • —5-year ROIC history
  • —10-year EPS history
Banks operate differently - 12%+ ROE is considered strong for the financial sector due to regulatory capital requirements.
FAILED

ROE dropped to 3.2% in a weak year. Buffett requires consistency - one bad year can reveal underlying vulnerability.

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Formula: Net Income ÷ Shareholders' Equity × 100
Example: If a company earns $20M on $100M equity, ROE = 20%. Each $1 you invest generates 20¢ profit annually.
Sources: Warren Buffett's 1987 Letter to Shareholders • Mary Buffett, 'Buffettology'

Free Cash Flow

Real cash left after running the business

$669M
Positive cash generation
Positive FCF means earnings are real, not accounting tricks. As Buffett says: 'Cash is fact, profit is opinion.' This cash funds dividends, buybacks, and growth.
PASSED

Positive cash generation. Company produces real cash after capital expenditures - can fund dividends, buybacks, or growth.

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Formula: Operating Cash Flow - Capital Expenditures
Example: A company with $100M operating cash flow spending $30M on equipment has $70M FCF.

Earnings Predictability

Consistency of profits over time

4/10
Positive years • -36.0% CAGR
2025
$0.04
2024
$0.10
2023
$0.14
2022
$0.16
Buffett only invests in businesses he can forecast 5-10 years out. 8+ positive EPS years out of 10 with no losses proves the business generates reliable earnings through economic cycles.
FAILED

Only 4/10 positive EPS years. Buffett requires predictable earnings he can forecast 5-10 years out.

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Formula: Count of positive EPS years in 10-year history
Example: A company with 10 consecutive positive EPS years (no losses) demonstrates predictable earnings power that Buffett seeks.
Sources: Warren Buffett's 2007 Letter to Shareholders • Mary Buffett & David Clark, 'The New Buffettology'

Earnings Yield

Return on investment at current price (inverse of P/E)

4.0%
Required: 7.5% (Treasury + risk premium)
Earnings Yield
4.0%
Required Yield
7.5%
Graham Number (P/E × P/B)24.4
Earnings yield must exceed 10-year Treasury yield plus a risk premium (typically 3%). If bonds yield 4.5%, stocks should yield at least 7.5% to justify the added risk.
FAILED

4.0% earnings yield is below required 7.5% (4.5% Treasury + 745.5% risk premium).

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Formula: (EPS ÷ Stock Price) × 100
Example: A stock at $100 with $8 EPS = 8% earnings yield. Compare to 4.5% Treasury yield: 3.5% premium for equity risk.
Sources: Benjamin Graham, 'The Intelligent Investor' • Warren Buffett's 1992 Letter

Margin of Safety

Discount to intrinsic value (Two-Stage DCF)

$0.90
Buy below this price for 30% margin
Good DealToo Expensive
$0$1$1
Current: $1.0516% over
The cornerstone of value investing. We calculate intrinsic value using Buffett's Two-Stage DCF: 10-year growth projection + terminal value, discounted at Treasury + industry risk premium. Predictable businesses need less margin; volatile ones need more.
FAILED

19% margin is below the 30% minimum required for this sector.

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Formula: (Intrinsic Value - Market Cap) ÷ Intrinsic Value × 100. Intrinsic Value = PV of 10-year growth period + PV of terminal value (perpetuity at 2.5% growth), discounted at Treasury rate + industry risk premium (6-9%).
Example: A bank with $10B owner earnings, 3% growth, 7% discount: Stage 1 PV ≈ $78B, Terminal PV ≈ $154B, Total = $232B. If market cap is $250B, margin = -7.7% (slightly overvalued).
Sources: Benjamin Graham, 'The Intelligent Investor' • Warren Buffett's 1992 Letter: 'When you build a bridge, you insist it can carry 30,000 pounds, but you only drive 10,000 pound trucks across it.' • Buffett's 1988 Coca-Cola valuation (documented Two-Stage DCF example)
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Formula: Annual Dividends per Share ÷ Stock Price × 100
Example: A stock at $10 paying $0.60/year = 6% yield. Buy at $8, and your yield jumps to 7.5%.
Sources: Luiz Barsi interviews • Décio Bazin, 'Faça Fortuna com Ações'

Dividend History

Track record of consistent dividend payments

8 years
2025
$0.04-48%
2024
$0.07-34%
2023
$0.10-2%
2022
$0.11+4%
2021
$0.10+58%
2020
$0.06-31%
2019
$0.09—
Skipped YearNone
Cut 30%+Exception
🦠
Pandemic Exception Applied
Dividend reduced during 2020-2021 but recovered to 111% of pre-pandemic levels
6+ years with no skipped payments or 30%+ cuts proves the company can generate reliable cash through economic cycles. Consistency matters more than yield.
PASSED

8 years of dividends. Pandemic exception applied - dividends recovered to 111% of pre-pandemic levels.

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Example: A company paying dividends for 20 years, even during 2008 and 2020 crises, proves it can weather storms.

Maximum Buy Price

Highest price to lock in 6% yield

$1.34
Buy below this price for 6% yield
Good DealToo Expensive
$0$1$1
Current: $1.0522% below
Calculated from 6-year average dividend: Price Ceiling = Avg Dividend ÷ 0.06. Buy below this price and you're guaranteed 6% yield based on historical average.
PASSED

Excellent entry point. 22% below ceiling means you're locking in well over 6% yield.

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Formula: 6-Year Average Annual Dividend ÷ 0.06
Example: If a stock pays $0.72/year on average, price ceiling = $12. Any price below $12 locks in >6% yield.

Sector

Industry category of the business

🏦
Mortgage Finance
Financial Services
BESST SectorYes
BESST sectors (Banks, Energy, Sanitation, Insurance, Telecom) provide essential services with predictable demand regardless of economic conditions. People always need electricity and banking.
PASSED

Banking is an essential service sector with stable, predictable cash flows - ideal for dividend investing.

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Example: During recessions, people cut Netflix but keep paying electricity bills. Essential services = reliable dividends.