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Coles Group Limited
Consumer Defensive · Grocery Stores
Updated just now
$22.62
MARKET CAP
$30.38B
P/E RATIO
28.0
DIV. YIELD
3.1%
FRANKING
100%
Coles Group Limited operates as a retailer in Australia. It operates through Supermarkets and Liquor segments. The company operates various supermarkets, which offers fresh food, groceries, general merchandise, and liquor; and coles.com.au, which offers a choice of home delivery, including same-day, overnight drop and go services, and pick up from click and collect locations.
View full descriptionThe Warsi Rating combines two proven approaches: value investing principles and dividend strategy. A stock must score 70+ on both to be rated Solid or higher.
$17.03
Discounted cash flow estimate
$10.22
For 6% dividend yield
Business quality and balance-sheet durability.
Real cash left after running the business
Positive cash generation. Company produces real cash after capital expenditures - can fund dividends, buybacks, or growth.
Current Snapshot
Current FCF
$1.4B
Pass Rule
> $0
Status
Positive
Why It Matters
Free cash flow is the cash available after core operating and capital needs. It is central to dividend capacity.
Formula
Operating Cash Flow - Capital ExpendituresMethod
Review whether free cash flow is consistently positive and whether it is sufficient relative to dividends and debt needs.
Worked Example
This company generated $1.4B in free cash flow — cash left after operating costs and capital expenditure. Positive FCF means dividends are funded by real cash generation.
How to Interpret
Persistently negative free cash flow can force reliance on borrowing or equity issuance to maintain payouts.
Positive cash flow means dividends are funded by actual money, not accounting profits. As Buffett says, "Cash is fact, profit is opinion." Your income is backed by real cash generation.
Sources
Profit generated per $1 of shareholder investment
How much the company owes vs. what it owns
Profit after production costs, before overhead
Short-term assets vs. short-term debts
Price versus estimated intrinsic value and required return thresholds.
What percentage of the stock price comes back as earnings each year
Years of earnings needed to retire all long-term debt
Is the business growing — and is debt being managed responsibly?
Revenue growing with stable debt levels — a positive sign of organic growth that supports future dividends.
Current Snapshot
Revenue Change
+12.7%
Debt Change
+5.6%
Trend State
Improving
Why It Matters
Revenue trend shows whether the business is expanding or contracting. Debt trend adds context on whether growth is being funded conservatively.
Formula
Revenue Change (%) = (Latest Revenue - Earliest Revenue) / |Earliest Revenue| x 100; Debt Change (%) = (Latest Debt - Earliest Debt) / |Earliest Debt| x 100Method
Map annual revenue history and, where relevant, annual debt history. For financial companies, debt is excluded because deposits and reserves distort this signal.
Worked Example
Revenue changed by +12.7% across the displayed period, while debt changed by +5.6%.
How to Interpret
Rising revenue with stable or falling debt is typically stronger than rising revenue funded by rapidly rising leverage.
Revenue growing with stable debt levels — a positive sign of organic growth that supports future dividends.
Sources
Annual dividends as percentage of stock price
2.71% yield is well below the 6% target. Not suitable for Barsi's income strategy.
Current Snapshot
6Y Avg Yield
2.7%
6% Requirement
6.0%
Gross Yield
3.9%
Why It Matters
Yield translates dividend income into a percentage of the price paid, which is central to income-first screening.
Formula
Annual Dividends per Share / Stock Price x 100Method
Use the 6-year average annual dividend for consistency and compare the result with the 6% framework requirement.
Worked Example
With a 6-year average annual dividend of $0.61 and a share price of $22.62, the Barsi yield is 2.7%. The minimum requirement is 6%. Including franking credits, the gross yield is 3.9%.
How to Interpret
Higher sustainable yield improves upfront income, but unusually high yields may reflect elevated risk or weak coverage.
Low yield means you need significant capital to generate meaningful income. Barsi's strategy focuses on stocks that provide substantial cash flow from day one.
Sources
Track record of consistent dividend payments
| Ex-Date | Pay Date | Gross | Franking | Net | Credit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ~10 Sept 2026Est | ~5 Oct 2026 | ~$0.41 | 100% | ~$0.29 | $0.12 |
| ~15 Mar 2027Est | ~30 Mar 2027 | ~$0.47 | 100% | ~$0.33 | $0.14 |
Highest price to lock in 6% yield
Industry category of the business
Consumer Defensive is not a BESST sector. Non-BESST stocks receive a lower base score but can still qualify with exceptional dividend metrics.
Current Snapshot
Industry
Grocery Stores
BESST Match
No
Score Impact
No bonus
Why It Matters
Sector classification helps contextualise risk and demand durability, which can materially affect dividend stability.
Formula
BESST Match = Sector in {Banks, Energy, Sanitation, Insurance, Telecom}Method
Match company sector or industry against BESST categories. A match adds scoring support but does not replace core dividend checks.
Worked Example
This company operates in Grocery Stores (Consumer Defensive sector). It does not match a BESST sector, so it receives the standard base score. Non-BESST stocks can still qualify with strong dividend metrics.
How to Interpret
Sources
How much of a company's earnings are paid out as dividends
A 91% payout means the company distributes most of its earnings as dividends — more income per share now, but less room for growth. Around 67% is often considered “normal” for established companies. This level feeds directly into the price ceiling calculation.
Current Snapshot
Latest Ratio
90.9%
Healthy Range
30%-75%
Zone
Elevated
Why It Matters
Payout ratio links dividends to earnings capacity and helps evaluate whether current distributions are likely to remain supportable.
Formula
Payout Ratio (%) = (Annual Dividend per Share / Earnings per Share) x 100Method
Calculate year-by-year payout ratios where EPS is positive, classify each year by sustainability zone, and compare with the current TTM ratio.
Worked Example
$0.69 dividend / $0.81 EPS equals 85.4% payout ratio.
How to Interpret
Ratios in the middle range are usually more sustainable than very high ratios. Values above 100% indicate dividends exceeded earnings in that period.
A 91% payout means the company distributes most of its earnings as dividends — more income per share now, but less room for growth. Around 67% is often considered “normal” for established companies. This level feeds directly into the price ceiling calculation.
Sources
Coles Group Limited operates as a retailer in Australia. It operates through Supermarkets and Liquor segments. The company operates various supermarkets, which offers fresh food, groceries, general merchandise, and liquor; and coles.com.au, which offers a choice of home delivery, including same-day, overnight drop and go services, and pick up from click and collect locations. Its Coles Financial Services provides insurance, credit cards, and personal loans to Australian families.
The company is also involved in the retailing of liquor through its various stores under the Liquorland, First Choice Liquor Market, and Vintage Cellars brand names, as well as retail media services through its store network and online platforms. In addition, it operates as flybuys loyalty program. The company was formerly known as Coles Myer Ltd. and changed its name to Coles Group Limited in November 2006.
Coles Group Limited was founded in 1914 and is based in Hawthorn East, Australia.
Who owns the company's shares and how much leadership has at stake
Leadership has very little personal money riding on the stock price
Professional fund managers have done their homework and chosen to own this
Shares freely traded on the ASX by individual investors like you
Professional fund managers hold a solid 37.8% — they see value in the business. However, company leadership owns very little (0.6%). While low insider ownership is common in large companies, it means management’s financial interests aren’t strongly tied to yours as a shareholder.
Current Snapshot
Insider %
0.6%
Institutional %
37.8%
Float %
61.6%
Why It Matters
Ownership mix affects governance incentives, liquidity, and share-price behaviour under large portfolio rebalancing flows.
Formula
Public Float (%) = 100 - Insider Ownership (%) - Institutional Ownership (%)Method
Use reported ownership percentages, convert to percentage terms, and compute remaining public float as the residual.
Worked Example
If insiders own 0.6% and institutions own 37.8%, public float is 61.6%.
How to Interpret
Higher insider ownership can improve alignment of incentives, while dominant institutional concentration can amplify short-term price moves.
Professional fund managers hold a solid 37.8% — they see value in the business. However, company leadership owns very little (0.6%). While low insider ownership is common in large companies, it means management’s financial interests aren’t strongly tied to yours as a shareholder.
Sources
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Sept 2025 | Weckert (Leah) Chief Executive Officer | Unknown | 26K | — |
| 29 Aug 2025 | Weckert (Leah) Chief Executive Officer | Unknown | 195K | — |
| 30 June 2025 | Swindells (Matthew) Divisional Officer | Unknown | 78K | — |
| 30 June 2025 | Elias (Charlie) Chief Financial Officer | Unknown | 81K | — |
| 30 Apr 2025 | Graham (James Philip) Former | Unknown | 489K | — |
Company insiders have been net buyers of shares over the past 12 months. This may indicate management confidence in future prospects.
Value analysis may be affected by missing data.
Market data sourced from third-party financial data providers. Analysis generated using Warsi Criteria — proprietary scoring algorithms for value investing and dividend income analysis. Not financial advice. Learn how we analyse stocks →
29.4% average ROE meets the threshold, but dropped to 0.0% in a weak year. Consistency matters in this framework.
Current Snapshot
10Y Avg
29.4%
Threshold
20.0%
Worst Year
0.0%
Why It Matters
ROE shows how effectively management turns shareholder capital into profit. High and stable ROE can signal pricing power, cost discipline, or both.
Formula
Net Income / Shareholders' Equity x 100Method
Use the 10-year average ROE and review the weakest year to check whether returns stayed resilient across cycles.
Worked Example
This company's 10-year average ROE is 29.4%, meaning each $1 of shareholder equity generates $0.29 in annual profit. The threshold is 20%, and the worst single year was 0.0%.
How to Interpret
Higher and steadier ROE generally supports stronger long-term compounding. Large drawdowns in weak years can point to fragility.
The average is solid, but the dip shows some vulnerability. At 29.4% ROE, every $1 retained generates $0.29 in annual profit — monitor whether the weak year was a one-off or a recurring pattern.
Sources
Debt-to-equity of 2.71 is 5.4x over Buffett's limit. High leverage increases risk during downturns.
Current Snapshot
Current D/E
2.71x
Industry Limit
0.50x
Headroom
-2.21x
Why It Matters
Debt-to-equity shows balance-sheet risk. Lower leverage usually means more flexibility when earnings soften.
Formula
Total Debt / Shareholders' EquityMethod
Compare current D/E against the industry threshold used in the scoring framework, then assess remaining headroom.
Worked Example
This company's D/E is 2.71, meaning it carries 271 cents of debt for every $1 of equity. The consumer staples limit is 0.50, leaving it 2.21 over the limit.
How to Interpret
Lower values generally imply lower refinancing pressure and lower dividend stress in downturns.
High debt means interest payments come before dividends. During recessions, heavily indebted companies often cut dividends first to preserve cash. This adds risk to your income stream.
Sources
Worst year margin (25.8%) fell below 35% minimum. Volatility suggests weak pricing power or one-time issues.
Current Snapshot
10Y Avg
26.0%
Threshold
40%
Worst Year
25.8%
Why It Matters
Gross margin indicates how much room a business has to absorb costs and still generate profit.
Formula
(Revenue - Cost of Goods Sold) / Revenue x 100Method
Assess both the long-term average and the weakest year. The framework checks for both level and consistency.
Worked Example
This company's 4-year average gross margin is 26.0% — it keeps 26 cents of every revenue dollar after production costs. The threshold is 40%, and the weakest year was 25.8%.
How to Interpret
Sustained high margins usually support durability. Sharp margin swings can signal weaker control or cyclical pressure.
Thin margins leave no cushion for unexpected costs. A small increase in expenses or drop in prices could squeeze profits and threaten the dividend.
Sources
Current ratio of 0.61 is below 1.0 - company may struggle to pay short-term obligations.
Current Snapshot
Current Ratio
0.61x
Warning Floor
1.00x
Target
1.50x
Why It Matters
Liquidity supports operational stability. Companies with weak liquidity can face pressure even when long-term fundamentals are sound.
Formula
Current Assets / Current LiabilitiesMethod
Compare the current ratio to the warning floor and target level used in the framework.
Worked Example
This company's current ratio is 0.61x — it has $0.61 in short-term assets for every $1 of short-term liabilities. The target is 1.5x, with a warning floor at 1.0x.
How to Interpret
Ratios above the target suggest healthier short-term resilience; ratios below 1.0x can indicate immediate funding risk.
Tight liquidity means the company may need to borrow or sell assets to pay bills. Dividends are often the first expense cut when cash runs low.
Sources
3.6% earnings yield is below the 7.5% threshold. You'd earn nearly as much from safer government bonds, which means the extra risk of owning shares isn't being compensated.
Current Snapshot
Current Yield
3.6%
Required Yield
7.5%
Spread
-3.9pp
Why It Matters
Earnings yield reframes valuation as return on price paid. It helps compare equity earnings power against lower-risk alternatives.
Formula
(Earnings per Share / Stock Price) x 100Method
Calculate current earnings yield, then compare it to the required yield for the stock's industry setting.
Worked Example
With EPS of $0.81 and a share price of $22.62, earnings yield is 3.6%. The required yield for this industry is 7.5% (based on 4.5% government bond rate plus a risk premium).
How to Interpret
A yield above the required level suggests better valuation support; below it indicates thinner compensation for equity risk.
Returns don't justify the added risk compared to safe bonds. Consider whether the dividend yield alone compensates, or wait for a better price.
Sources
How current price compares with estimated intrinsic value
Stock is trading 90% ABOVE the fair-value threshold (includes 30% margin of safety) and above the estimated intrinsic value.
Current Snapshot
Current Margin
-32.8%
Industry Threshold
30%
Status
33% Overvalued
Why It Matters
Margin of safety provides a valuation buffer against modelling uncertainty and adverse business outcomes.
Formula
(Estimated Intrinsic Value per Share - Current Price) / Estimated Intrinsic Value per Share x 100Method
Estimate intrinsic value using a two-stage DCF (10-year projection plus terminal value), then compare with current price.
Worked Example
For this stock now: intrinsic value is $17.03 per share, current price is $22.62, and margin of safety is -32.8%.
How to Interpret
Positive margin indicates price below modelled value; negative margin indicates price above modelled value. Compare against the industry's required buffer.
The market price is above both your required threshold and intrinsic value estimate. Under this methodology, there is no valuation buffer for estimate error or market volatility.
Sources
Manageable debt. Could pay off long-term debt in 1.7 years — comfortably within the 4-year threshold.
Current Snapshot
Payoff Years
1.7yr
Target Years
4yr
Gap
+2.3yr
Why It Matters
Debt payoff years converts leverage into an intuitive time measure, making debt burden easier to compare across stocks.
Formula
Long-Term Debt / Average Net Income (3yr)Method
Use current long-term debt and the 3-year average net income to smooth one-off profit noise.
Worked Example
With $1.8B in long-term debt and $1.1B in average annual earnings (3yr), it would take 1.7 years of earnings to pay off all debt. The consumer staples threshold is 4 years.
How to Interpret
Lower values generally indicate stronger debt capacity. Very high values can constrain dividend resilience.
Debt is comfortably serviceable from earnings. This means interest payments won't crowd out dividends, even during moderate downturns.
Sources
Consistency of profits over time
7/4 positive EPS years. Limited data - full evaluation requires 8+ years. Monitor closely for consistency.
Current Snapshot
Positive Years
7/4
Allowed Losses
0 (limited)
EPS CAGR
-4.7%
Why It Matters
Consistency in EPS helps distinguish resilient earnings power from one-off performance spikes.
Formula
Positive EPS Years / Available EPS YearsMethod
For 8+ years of data, apply industry-specific loss tolerance. For limited data, every available year must be positive.
Worked Example
This company reported positive earnings in 7 of the last 4 years. With only 4 years of data, every year must be positive. EPS growth rate (CAGR) is -4.7%.
How to Interpret
Fewer loss years and stronger EPS continuity generally improve confidence in future dividend and valuation assumptions.
So far so good, but limited history means we haven't seen how this company handles a full economic cycle. Monitor closely for continued consistency.
Sources
How efficiently the company turns money into profit
10.9% ROIC is below the 11.0% threshold. Company may not be earning enough to justify the money invested in it.
Current Snapshot
5Y Avg
10.9%
Threshold
11.0%
WACC Delta
+1.9pp
Why It Matters
ROIC measures capital efficiency. Businesses that repeatedly earn above their funding cost can compound value more effectively.
Formula
After-Tax Operating Profit / Invested Capital x 100Method
Use the 5-year average ROIC and compare it with industry WACC plus the required spread in this framework.
Worked Example
This company's 5-year average ROIC is 10.9%, with a cost of capital (WACC) of 9.0%. The +1.9pp spread above WACC suggests it creates value on each dollar invested.
How to Interpret
A healthy spread above WACC suggests value creation; a narrow or negative spread points to weaker capital efficiency.
Returns below the cost of borrowing mean the business destroys value over time. This can erode the foundation that supports dividends — proceed with caution.
Sources
How much earnings are consumed by capital expenditure
CapEx consumes 137% of cumulative earnings — above the 50% threshold. This business requires heavy reinvestment just to maintain operations.
Current Snapshot
10Y CapEx Intensity
137%
Threshold
50%
Buffer
-87%
Why It Matters
CapEx intensity estimates how much of earnings must be reinvested just to sustain operations.
Formula
Cumulative CapEx (10yr) / Cumulative Net Income (10yr) x 100Method
Aggregate 10-year CapEx and net income, then compare the ratio with the sector threshold in the framework.
Worked Example
Over 10 years, 137% of this company's cumulative earnings were consumed by capital expenditure. The consumer staples threshold is 50%, leaving a buffer of -87% (over threshold).
How to Interpret
Lower ratios usually indicate better cash conversion. Higher ratios can reduce room for dividends and buybacks.
High capital intensity means most earnings go back into equipment and infrastructure rather than dividends or growth. Buffett prefers businesses like See's Candies that generate cash without needing much reinvestment.
Sources
Percentage of revenue that becomes profit after all expenses
2.4% net margin is below the 3% threshold. Thin margins suggest weak competitive position or high costs.
Current Snapshot
Current Margin
2.4%
Threshold
3.0%
Relative Position
-0.6%
Why It Matters
Net income margin shows how much profit the business keeps from each dollar of revenue after all costs.
Formula
Net Income / Total Revenue x 100Method
Compare current margin with the industry-specific threshold to avoid cross-sector distortions.
Worked Example
This company's net income margin is 2.4% — it keeps 2 cents of every revenue dollar as profit after all expenses. The consumer staples threshold is 3%, putting it 0.6% below the requirement.
How to Interpret
Margins that are both strong and stable can indicate competitive strength; persistent weakness may limit reinvestment and payout capacity.
Thin margins mean a small increase in costs or drop in prices could eliminate profits entirely. This puts dividends at risk because there's no buffer to absorb shocks.
Sources
| Ex-Date | Pay Date | Gross | Franking | Net | Credit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Mar 2026Interim | 30 Mar 2026 | $0.59 | 100% | $0.41 | $0.18 |
| 5 Sept 2025Final | 3 Oct 2025 | $0.32 | 0% | $0.32 | $0.00 |
| 5 Mar 2025Interim | 2 Apr 2025 | $0.37 | 0% | $0.37 | $0.00 |
| 3 Sept 2024Final | 1 Oct 2024 | $0.32 | 0% | $0.32 | $0.00 |
| 5 Mar 2024Interim | 2 Apr 2024 | $0.36 | 0% | $0.36 | $0.00 |
| 1 Sept 2023Final | 29 Sept 2023 | $0.30 | 0% | $0.30 | $0.00 |
| 2 Mar 2023Interim | 30 Mar 2023 | $0.36 | 0% | $0.36 | $0.00 |
| 2 Sept 2022Final | 30 Sept 2022 | $0.30 | 0% | $0.30 | $0.00 |
| 3 Mar 2022Interim | 31 Mar 2022 | $0.33 | 0% | $0.33 | $0.00 |
| 26 Aug 2021Final | 23 Sept 2021 | $0.28 | 0% | $0.28 | $0.00 |
8 years of consistent dividends meets Barsi's 6-year minimum requirement.
Current Snapshot
History
8yr
Predictability
Stable
Payout Health
Elevated
Why It Matters
Payment consistency is a direct test of dividend reliability. Large cuts or skips often appear before confidence recovers.
Formula
Consecutive Years = count of years with dividend payments and no disqualifying skip/cut eventsMethod
Require at least 6 years of history, then check for skipped years and large cuts, allowing approved systemic-event exceptions.
Worked Example
This company has 8 years of dividend history (2019–2026). No suspensions detected — 8 consecutive years of payments. Predictability: Stable. Payout health: Elevated. The minimum requirement is 6 years.
How to Interpret
Longer uninterrupted records generally signal stronger income reliability than high yield alone.
A consistent track record through recent years gives confidence your income will continue. This company has shown commitment to shareholder returns.
Sources
Current price ($22.62) is 121% above the ceiling. Wait for a drop to lock in 6% yield.
Current Snapshot
Current Price
$22.62
Max Buy Price
$10.22
Delta
-121.3%
Why It Matters
The price ceiling links valuation discipline to income targets by defining the price that aligns with a 6% yield target.
Formula
6-Year Average Annual Dividend / 0.06Method
Use the 6-year average dividend (not one year) and divide by 0.06 to estimate the maximum entry price for target yield.
Worked Example
With a current price of $22.62 and a ceiling of $10.22, the entry is 121.3% above the ceiling.
How to Interpret
Prices below the ceiling imply a historical yield above 6%; prices above it imply a lower historical yield at entry.
At this price, you won't achieve Barsi's target 6% yield. Consider waiting for a pullback — market volatility often creates more favourable valuations for patient investors.
Sources
BESST alignment is a positive context signal. Non-BESST stocks can still qualify with strong yield and dividend consistency.
Non-essential businesses face demand drops during recessions — discretionary spending is first to be cut. This increases cyclical risk for dividends, but companies with decades of consistent payments can still demonstrate durability.
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