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COG Financial Services Limited
Financial Services · Capital Markets
Updated just now
$1.16
MARKET CAP
$247.40M
P/E RATIO
12.3
DIV. YIELD
5.1%
FRANKING
100%
COG has red flags on value, looks strong on dividends — see the full breakdown
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COG Financial Services Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in equipment financing and broking, aggregation, insurance broking, and novated leasing activities for in Australia.
View full descriptionThe Warsi Rating combines two proven approaches: value investing principles and dividend strategy. A stock must score 70+ on both to be rated Solid or higher.
$2.83
Discounted cash flow estimate
$1.16
For 6% dividend yield
Business quality and balance-sheet durability.
Real cash left after running the business
Positive cash generation. Company produces real cash after capital expenditures - can fund dividends, buybacks, or growth.
Current Snapshot
Current FCF
$43M
Pass Rule
> $0
Status
Positive
Why It Matters
Free cash flow is the cash available after core operating and capital needs. It is central to dividend capacity.
Formula
Operating Cash Flow - Capital ExpendituresMethod
Review whether free cash flow is consistently positive and whether it is sufficient relative to dividends and debt needs.
Worked Example
This company generated $43M in free cash flow — cash left after operating costs and capital expenditure. Positive FCF means dividends are funded by real cash generation.
How to Interpret
Persistently negative free cash flow can force reliance on borrowing or equity issuance to maintain payouts.
Positive cash flow means dividends are funded by actual money, not accounting profits. As Buffett says, "Cash is fact, profit is opinion." Your income is backed by real cash generation.
Sources
Profit generated per $1 of shareholder investment
How much the company owes vs. what it owns
Price versus estimated intrinsic value and required return thresholds.
What percentage of the stock price comes back as earnings each year
8.1% earnings yield exceeds the 7.5% threshold, meaning you're well compensated for owning shares instead of bonds.
Current Snapshot
Current Yield
8.1%
Required Yield
7.5%
Spread
+0.6pp
Why It Matters
Earnings yield reframes valuation as return on price paid. It helps compare equity earnings power against lower-risk alternatives.
Formula
(Earnings per Share / Stock Price) x 100Method
Calculate current earnings yield, then compare it to the required yield for the stock's industry setting.
Worked Example
With EPS of $0.09 and a share price of $1.16, earnings yield is 8.1%. The required yield for this industry is 7.5% (based on 4.5% government bond rate plus a risk premium).
How to Interpret
A yield above the required level suggests better valuation support; below it indicates thinner compensation for equity risk.
You're getting a fair return for the risk of owning shares instead of safe bonds. The earnings power justifies the price you're paying.
Sources
How current price compares with estimated intrinsic value
Consistency of profits over time
8/4 positive EPS years. Limited data - full evaluation requires 8+ years. Monitor closely for consistency.
Current Snapshot
Positive Years
8/4
Allowed Losses
0 (limited)
EPS CAGR
-14.6%
Why It Matters
Consistency in EPS helps distinguish resilient earnings power from one-off performance spikes.
Formula
Positive EPS Years / Available EPS YearsMethod
For 8+ years of data, apply industry-specific loss tolerance. For limited data, every available year must be positive.
Worked Example
This company reported positive earnings in 8 of the last 4 years. With only 4 years of data, every year must be positive. EPS growth rate (CAGR) is -14.6%.
How to Interpret
Fewer loss years and stronger EPS continuity generally improve confidence in future dividend and valuation assumptions.
So far so good, but limited history means we haven't seen how this company handles a full economic cycle. Monitor closely for continued consistency.
Sources
How much earnings are consumed by capital expenditure
Percentage of revenue that becomes profit after all expenses
Is the business growing or shrinking over time?
Revenue has grown steadily at 11% over 4 years — consistent growth in a financial institution is a positive sign for dividend sustainability.
Current Snapshot
Revenue Change
+11.3%
Debt Change
N/A (financials)
Trend State
Improving
Why It Matters
Revenue trend shows whether the business is expanding or contracting. Debt trend adds context on whether growth is being funded conservatively.
Formula
Revenue Change (%) = (Latest Revenue - Earliest Revenue) / |Earliest Revenue| x 100; Debt Change (%) = (Latest Debt - Earliest Debt) / |Earliest Debt| x 100Method
Map annual revenue history and, where relevant, annual debt history. For financial companies, debt is excluded because deposits and reserves distort this signal.
Worked Example
Revenue changed by +11.3% across the displayed period.
How to Interpret
Rising revenue with stable or falling debt is typically stronger than rising revenue funded by rapidly rising leverage.
Revenue has grown steadily at 11% over 4 years — consistent growth in a financial institution is a positive sign for dividend sustainability.
Sources
Annual dividends as percentage of stock price
6.01% yield meets Barsi's 6% minimum. Based on 6-year average, not one-time spikes.
Current Snapshot
6Y Avg Yield
6.0%
6% Requirement
6.0%
Gross Yield
8.6%
Why It Matters
Yield translates dividend income into a percentage of the price paid, which is central to income-first screening.
Formula
Annual Dividends per Share / Stock Price x 100Method
Use the 6-year average annual dividend for consistency and compare the result with the 6% framework requirement.
Worked Example
With a 6-year average annual dividend of $0.07 and a share price of $1.16, the Barsi yield is 6.0%. The minimum requirement is 6%. Including franking credits, the gross yield is 8.6%.
How to Interpret
Higher sustainable yield improves upfront income, but unusually high yields may reflect elevated risk or weak coverage.
This yield provides meaningful income that can beat inflation and compound over time. With DRIP enabled, this income can snowball into significant wealth.
Sources
Track record of consistent dividend payments
| Ex-Date | Pay Date | Gross | Franking | Net | Credit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Mar 2026Interim | 15 Apr 2026 | $0.05 | 100% | $0.04 | $0.02 |
Highest price to lock in 6% yield
Industry category of the business
Financial Services is not a BESST sector. Non-BESST stocks receive a lower base score but can still qualify with exceptional dividend metrics.
Current Snapshot
Industry
Capital Markets
BESST Match
No
Score Impact
No bonus
Why It Matters
Sector classification helps contextualise risk and demand durability, which can materially affect dividend stability.
Formula
BESST Match = Sector in {Banks, Energy, Sanitation, Insurance, Telecom}Method
Match company sector or industry against BESST categories. A match adds scoring support but does not replace core dividend checks.
Worked Example
This company operates in Capital Markets (Financial Services sector). It does not match a BESST sector, so it receives the standard base score. Non-BESST stocks can still qualify with strong dividend metrics.
How to Interpret
Sources
How much of a company's earnings are paid out as dividends
A 60% payout is in the sustainable range (30–75%) — the company balances rewarding shareholders with reinvesting for growth. This gives the price ceiling calculation a stable base, which is a healthy sign for long-term dividend investors.
Current Snapshot
Latest Ratio
60.5%
Healthy Range
30%-75%
Zone
Healthy
Why It Matters
Payout ratio links dividends to earnings capacity and helps evaluate whether current distributions are likely to remain supportable.
Formula
Payout Ratio (%) = (Annual Dividend per Share / Earnings per Share) x 100Method
Calculate year-by-year payout ratios where EPS is positive, classify each year by sustainability zone, and compare with the current TTM ratio.
Worked Example
$0.06 dividend / $0.09 EPS equals 63.8% payout ratio.
How to Interpret
Ratios in the middle range are usually more sustainable than very high ratios. Values above 100% indicate dividends exceeded earnings in that period.
A 60% payout is in the sustainable range (30–75%) — the company balances rewarding shareholders with reinvesting for growth. This gives the price ceiling calculation a stable base, which is a healthy sign for long-term dividend investors.
Sources
COG Financial Services Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in equipment financing and broking, aggregation, insurance broking, and novated leasing activities for in Australia. The company operates through Finance Broking & Aggregation; Novated Leasing; and Asset Management & Lending segments. It provides management of investment funds, as well as offers financing arrangements to commercial customers for essential business assets; and salary packaging services to government and private sector customers. The company was formerly known as Consolidated Operations Group Limited and changed its name to COG Financial Services Limited in November 2020.
COG Financial Services Limited was incorporated in 2002 and is based in North Sydney, Australia.
Who owns the company's shares and how much leadership has at stake
Management's wealth moves with yours
Professional fund managers have done their homework and chosen to own this
Shares freely traded on the ASX by individual investors like you
A healthy mix — insiders hold 18.4% (they have skin in the game) and professional fund managers hold 44.4% (they’ve done their homework and like the business). This balance is a good sign for long-term investors.
Current Snapshot
Insider %
18.4%
Institutional %
44.4%
Float %
37.3%
Why It Matters
Ownership mix affects governance incentives, liquidity, and share-price behaviour under large portfolio rebalancing flows.
Formula
Public Float (%) = 100 - Insider Ownership (%) - Institutional Ownership (%)Method
Use reported ownership percentages, convert to percentage terms, and compute remaining public float as the residual.
Worked Example
If insiders own 18.4% and institutions own 44.4%, public float is 37.3%.
How to Interpret
Higher insider ownership can improve alignment of incentives, while dominant institutional concentration can amplify short-term price moves.
A healthy mix — insiders hold 18.4% (they have skin in the game) and professional fund managers hold 44.4% (they’ve done their homework and like the business). This balance is a good sign for long-term investors.
Sources
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Sept 2025 | McCullagh (Cameron Scott) Director (Executive) | Sale at price 1.28 per share. | 10.0M | $12.8M |
| 3 Sept 2025 | Dwyer (John) Director (Non-Executive) | Purchase at price 1.23 per share. | 250K | $307K |
| 30 June 2025 | Balzer (Richard) Chief Financial Officer | Unknown | 316K | — |
| 30 June 2025 | Bennett (Andrew) Chief Executive Officer | Unknown | 1.3M | — |
| 23 Apr 2025 | Dwyer (John) Director (Non-Executive) | Purchase at price 0.79 per share. | 312K | $248K |
Company insiders have been net sellers of shares over the past 12 months. Insider selling can occur for many reasons (tax, diversification) and is not necessarily negative.
Value analysis may be affected by missing data.
Market data sourced from third-party financial data providers. Analysis generated using Warsi Criteria — proprietary scoring algorithms for value investing and dividend income analysis. Not financial advice. Learn how we analyse stocks →
7.6% average is below the 12% threshold. This suggests the business may lack a durable competitive advantage.
Current Snapshot
10Y Avg
7.6%
Threshold
12.0%
Worst Year
2.5%
Why It Matters
ROE shows how effectively management turns shareholder capital into profit. High and stable ROE can signal pricing power, cost discipline, or both.
Formula
Net Income / Shareholders' Equity x 100Method
Use the 10-year average ROE and review the weakest year to check whether returns stayed resilient across cycles.
Worked Example
This company's 10-year average ROE is 7.6%, meaning each $1 of shareholder equity generates $0.08 in annual profit. The threshold is 12%, and the worst single year was 2.5%.
How to Interpret
Higher and steadier ROE generally supports stronger long-term compounding. Large drawdowns in weak years can point to fragility.
Lower ROE means your investment compounds more slowly. At 7.6%, this business needs more capital to generate the same returns as competitors. Consider whether other strengths (yield, stability) compensate for weaker profitability.
Sources
Debt-to-equity of 2.47 is 1.2x over Buffett's limit. High leverage increases risk during downturns.
Current Snapshot
Current D/E
2.47x
Industry Limit
2.00x
Headroom
-0.47x
Why It Matters
Debt-to-equity shows balance-sheet risk. Lower leverage usually means more flexibility when earnings soften.
Formula
Total Debt / Shareholders' EquityMethod
Compare current D/E against the industry threshold used in the scoring framework, then assess remaining headroom.
Worked Example
This company's D/E is 2.47, meaning it carries 247 cents of debt for every $1 of equity. The capital markets & exchanges limit is 2.00, leaving it 0.47 over the limit.
How to Interpret
Lower values generally imply lower refinancing pressure and lower dividend stress in downturns.
High debt means interest payments come before dividends. During recessions, heavily indebted companies often cut dividends first to preserve cash. This adds risk to your income stream.
Sources
Stock is trading 41% BELOW the fair-value threshold (includes 30% margin of safety).
Current Snapshot
Current Margin
59.0%
Industry Threshold
30%
Status
41% Undervalued
Why It Matters
Margin of safety provides a valuation buffer against modelling uncertainty and adverse business outcomes.
Formula
(Estimated Intrinsic Value per Share - Current Price) / Estimated Intrinsic Value per Share x 100Method
Estimate intrinsic value using a two-stage DCF (10-year projection plus terminal value), then compare with current price.
Worked Example
For this stock now: intrinsic value is $2.83 per share, current price is $1.16, and margin of safety is 59.0%.
How to Interpret
Positive margin indicates price below modelled value; negative margin indicates price above modelled value. Compare against the industry's required buffer.
Price is below your required threshold, so you retain a margin-of-safety buffer against normal valuation error and market volatility.
Sources
CapEx consumes 61% of cumulative earnings — above the 30% threshold. Expected for this capital-intensive sector.
Current Snapshot
10Y CapEx Intensity
61%
Threshold
30%
Buffer
-31%
Why It Matters
CapEx intensity estimates how much of earnings must be reinvested just to sustain operations.
Formula
Cumulative CapEx (10yr) / Cumulative Net Income (10yr) x 100Method
Aggregate 10-year CapEx and net income, then compare the ratio with the sector threshold in the framework.
Worked Example
Over 10 years, 61% of this company's cumulative earnings were consumed by capital expenditure. The capital markets & exchanges threshold is 30%, leaving a buffer of -31% (over threshold).
How to Interpret
Lower ratios usually indicate better cash conversion. Higher ratios can reduce room for dividends and buybacks.
High capital intensity means most earnings go back into maintaining the business rather than rewarding shareholders. This is typical for this sector but limits dividend growth potential.
Sources
9.4% net margin is below the 15% threshold. May reflect this sector's structural characteristics.
Current Snapshot
Current Margin
9.4%
Threshold
15.0%
Relative Position
-5.6%
Why It Matters
Net income margin shows how much profit the business keeps from each dollar of revenue after all costs.
Formula
Net Income / Total Revenue x 100Method
Compare current margin with the industry-specific threshold to avoid cross-sector distortions.
Worked Example
This company's net income margin is 9.4% — it keeps 9 cents of every revenue dollar as profit after all expenses. The capital markets & exchanges threshold is 15%, putting it 5.6% below the requirement.
How to Interpret
Margins that are both strong and stable can indicate competitive strength; persistent weakness may limit reinvestment and payout capacity.
Lower margins in this sector are common, but they leave less cushion if costs rise or revenue drops. Monitor whether margins are stable over time — consistency matters more than the absolute level.
Sources
| Ex-Date | Pay Date | Gross | Franking | Net | Credit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Sept 2025Final | 29 Sept 2025 | $0.03 | 0% | $0.03 | $0.00 |
| 10 Mar 2025Interim | 7 Apr 2025 | $0.03 | 0% | $0.03 | $0.00 |
| 2 Sept 2024Final | 30 Sept 2024 | $0.04 | 0% | $0.04 | $0.00 |
| 11 Mar 2024Interim | 8 Apr 2024 | $0.04 | 0% | $0.04 | $0.00 |
| 20 Sept 2023Final | 18 Oct 2023 | $0.05 | 0% | $0.05 | $0.00 |
| 15 Mar 2023Interim | 12 Apr 2023 | $0.04 | 0% | $0.04 | $0.00 |
| 21 Sept 2022Final | 19 Oct 2022 | $0.05 | 0% | $0.05 | $0.00 |
| 24 Mar 2022Interim | 21 Apr 2022 | $0.04 | 0% | $0.04 | $0.00 |
| 22 Sept 2021Final | 20 Oct 2021 | $0.06 | 0% | $0.06 | $0.00 |
| 25 Mar 2021Interim | 22 Apr 2021 | $0.01 | 0% | $0.01 | $0.00 |
7 years of consistent dividends meets Barsi's 6-year minimum requirement.
Current Snapshot
History
7yr
Predictability
Moderate
Payout Health
High risk
Why It Matters
Payment consistency is a direct test of dividend reliability. Large cuts or skips often appear before confidence recovers.
Formula
Consecutive Years = count of years with dividend payments and no disqualifying skip/cut eventsMethod
Require at least 6 years of history, then check for skipped years and large cuts, allowing approved systemic-event exceptions.
Worked Example
This company has 7 years of dividend history (2020–2026). No suspensions detected — 7 consecutive years of payments. Predictability: Moderate. Payout health: High risk. The minimum requirement is 6 years.
How to Interpret
Longer uninterrupted records generally signal stronger income reliability than high yield alone.
A consistent track record through recent years gives confidence your income will continue. This company has shown commitment to shareholder returns.
Sources
Current price is favourable. Locks in 6%+ dividend yield based on historical average.
Current Snapshot
Current Price
$1.16
Max Buy Price
$1.16
Delta
+0.0%
Why It Matters
The price ceiling links valuation discipline to income targets by defining the price that aligns with a 6% yield target.
Formula
6-Year Average Annual Dividend / 0.06Method
Use the 6-year average dividend (not one year) and divide by 0.06 to estimate the maximum entry price for target yield.
Worked Example
With a current price of $1.16 and a ceiling of $1.16, the entry is 0.0% below the ceiling.
How to Interpret
Prices below the ceiling imply a historical yield above 6%; prices above it imply a lower historical yield at entry.
Buying below the ceiling locks in your target yield based on proven historical dividends — not projections. Your income is secured at this price.
Sources
BESST alignment is a positive context signal. Non-BESST stocks can still qualify with strong yield and dividend consistency.
Non-essential businesses face demand drops during recessions — discretionary spending is first to be cut. This increases cyclical risk for dividends, but companies with decades of consistent payments can still demonstrate durability.
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