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Capricorn Metals Ltd
Basic Materials · Gold
Updated 18 hours ago
$10.94
MARKET CAP
$5.00B
P/E RATIO
47.6
DIV. YIELD
0.4%
FRANKING
100%
Capricorn Metals Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, explores, develops, evaluates, and produces gold in Australia. It operates through the Karlawinda Gold Project and the Mt Gibson Gold Project segments.
View full descriptionThe Warsi Rating combines two proven approaches: value investing principles and dividend strategy. A stock must score 70+ on both to be rated Solid or higher.
$4.09
Discounted cash flow estimate
Business quality and balance-sheet durability.
Real cash left after running the business
Positive cash generation. Company produces real cash after capital expenditures - can fund dividends, buybacks, or growth.
Current Snapshot
Current FCF
$93M
Pass Rule
> $0
Status
Positive
Why It Matters
Free cash flow is the cash available after core operating and capital needs. It is central to dividend capacity.
Formula
Operating Cash Flow - Capital ExpendituresMethod
Review whether free cash flow is consistently positive and whether it is sufficient relative to dividends and debt needs.
Worked Example
This company generated $93M in free cash flow — cash left after operating costs and capital expenditure. Positive FCF means dividends are funded by real cash generation.
How to Interpret
Persistently negative free cash flow can force reliance on borrowing or equity issuance to maintain payouts.
Positive cash flow means dividends are funded by actual money, not accounting profits. As Buffett says, "Cash is fact, profit is opinion." Your income is backed by real cash generation.
Sources
Profit generated per $1 of shareholder investment
Short-term assets vs. short-term debts
Price versus estimated intrinsic value and required return thresholds.
What percentage of the stock price comes back as earnings each year
Percentage of revenue that becomes profit after all expenses
Is the business growing — and is debt being managed responsibly?
Revenue and debt both growing — check whether debt is funding productive growth or covering shortfalls. Sustainable dividends require revenue to outpace debt over time.
Current Snapshot
Revenue Change
+76.3%
Debt Change
+26400.0%
Trend State
Mixed
Why It Matters
Revenue trend shows whether the business is expanding or contracting. Debt trend adds context on whether growth is being funded conservatively.
Formula
Revenue Change (%) = (Latest Revenue - Earliest Revenue) / |Earliest Revenue| x 100; Debt Change (%) = (Latest Debt - Earliest Debt) / |Earliest Debt| x 100Method
Map annual revenue history and, where relevant, annual debt history. For financial companies, debt is excluded because deposits and reserves distort this signal.
Worked Example
Revenue changed by +76.3% across the displayed period, while debt changed by +26400.0%.
How to Interpret
Rising revenue with stable or falling debt is typically stronger than rising revenue funded by rapidly rising leverage.
Revenue and debt both growing — check whether debt is funding productive growth or covering shortfalls. Sustainable dividends require revenue to outpace debt over time.
Sources
Annual dividends as percentage of stock price
Capricorn Metals Ltd, together with its subsidiaries, explores, develops, evaluates, and produces gold in Australia. It operates through the Karlawinda Gold Project and the Mt Gibson Gold Project segments. The company holds 100% interest in the Karlawinda gold project located in the Pilbara region of Western Australia; and the Mt Gibson Gold Project located in the Murchison region of Western Australia. It also operates commercial properties.
The company was formerly known as Malagasy Minerals Limited and changed its name to Capricorn Metals Limited in February 2016. Capricorn Metals Ltd was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in West Perth, Australia.
Who owns the company's shares and how much leadership has at stake
Management's wealth moves with yours
Professional fund managers have done their homework and chosen to own this
Shares freely traded on the ASX by individual investors like you
A healthy mix — insiders hold 10.1% (they have skin in the game) and professional fund managers hold 52.4% (they’ve done their homework and like the business). This balance is a good sign for long-term investors.
Current Snapshot
Insider %
10.1%
Institutional %
52.4%
Float %
37.6%
Why It Matters
Ownership mix affects governance incentives, liquidity, and share-price behaviour under large portfolio rebalancing flows.
Formula
Public Float (%) = 100 - Insider Ownership (%) - Institutional Ownership (%)Method
Use reported ownership percentages, convert to percentage terms, and compute remaining public float as the residual.
Worked Example
If insiders own 10.1% and institutions own 52.4%, public float is 37.6%.
How to Interpret
Higher insider ownership can improve alignment of incentives, while dominant institutional concentration can amplify short-term price moves.
A healthy mix — insiders hold 10.1% (they have skin in the game) and professional fund managers hold 52.4% (they’ve done their homework and like the business). This balance is a good sign for long-term investors.
Sources
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Sept 2025 | Clark (Mark John) Executive Chairman | Unknown | 158K | — |
| 30 June 2025 | Clark (Shane) Divisional Officer | Unknown | 20K | — |
| 30 June 2025 | Hinkley (Tony) Chief Operating Officer | Unknown | 1.6M | — |
Company insiders have been net buyers of shares over the past 12 months. This may indicate management confidence in future prospects.
Dividend analysis may be affected by missing data.
Market data sourced from third-party financial data providers. Analysis generated using Warsi Criteria — proprietary scoring algorithms for value investing and dividend income analysis. Not financial advice. Learn how we analyse stocks →
-5.9% average is below the 15% threshold. This suggests the business may lack a durable competitive advantage.
Current Snapshot
10Y Avg
-5.9%
Threshold
15.0%
Worst Year
-93.3%
Why It Matters
ROE shows how effectively management turns shareholder capital into profit. High and stable ROE can signal pricing power, cost discipline, or both.
Formula
Net Income / Shareholders' Equity x 100Method
Use the 10-year average ROE and review the weakest year to check whether returns stayed resilient across cycles.
Worked Example
This company's 10-year average ROE is -5.9%, meaning each $1 of shareholder equity generates $-0.06 in annual profit. The threshold is 15%, and the worst single year was -93.3%.
How to Interpret
Higher and steadier ROE generally supports stronger long-term compounding. Large drawdowns in weak years can point to fragility.
Lower ROE means your investment compounds more slowly. At -5.9%, this business needs more capital to generate the same returns as competitors. Consider whether other strengths (yield, stability) compensate for weaker profitability.
Sources
Current ratio of 0.91 is below 1.0 - company may struggle to pay short-term obligations.
Current Snapshot
Current Ratio
0.91x
Warning Floor
1.00x
Target
1.50x
Why It Matters
Liquidity supports operational stability. Companies with weak liquidity can face pressure even when long-term fundamentals are sound.
Formula
Current Assets / Current LiabilitiesMethod
Compare the current ratio to the warning floor and target level used in the framework.
Worked Example
This company's current ratio is 0.91x — it has $0.91 in short-term assets for every $1 of short-term liabilities. The target is 1.5x, with a warning floor at 1.0x.
How to Interpret
Ratios above the target suggest healthier short-term resilience; ratios below 1.0x can indicate immediate funding risk.
Tight liquidity means the company may need to borrow or sell assets to pay bills. Dividends are often the first expense cut when cash runs low.
Sources
2.1% earnings yield is below the 7.5% threshold. You'd earn nearly as much from safer government bonds, which means the extra risk of owning shares isn't being compensated.
Current Snapshot
Current Yield
2.1%
Required Yield
7.5%
Spread
-5.4pp
Why It Matters
Earnings yield reframes valuation as return on price paid. It helps compare equity earnings power against lower-risk alternatives.
Formula
(Earnings per Share / Stock Price) x 100Method
Calculate current earnings yield, then compare it to the required yield for the stock's industry setting.
Worked Example
With EPS of $0.23 and a share price of $10.94, earnings yield is 2.1%. The required yield for this industry is 7.5% (based on 4.5% government bond rate plus a risk premium).
How to Interpret
A yield above the required level suggests better valuation support; below it indicates thinner compensation for equity risk.
Returns don't justify the added risk compared to safe bonds. Consider whether the dividend yield alone compensates, or wait for a better price.
Sources
How current price compares with estimated intrinsic value
Stock is trading 282% ABOVE the fair-value threshold (includes 30% margin of safety) and above the estimated intrinsic value.
Current Snapshot
Current Margin
-167.5%
Industry Threshold
30%
Status
167% Overvalued
Why It Matters
Margin of safety provides a valuation buffer against modelling uncertainty and adverse business outcomes.
Formula
(Estimated Intrinsic Value per Share - Current Price) / Estimated Intrinsic Value per Share x 100Method
Estimate intrinsic value using a two-stage DCF (10-year projection plus terminal value), then compare with current price.
Worked Example
For this stock now: intrinsic value is $4.09 per share, current price is $10.94, and margin of safety is -167.5%.
How to Interpret
Positive margin indicates price below modelled value; negative margin indicates price above modelled value. Compare against the industry's required buffer.
The market price is above both your required threshold and intrinsic value estimate. Under this methodology, there is no valuation buffer for estimate error or market volatility.
Sources
24.2% net margin meets the 15% threshold for this sector.
Current Snapshot
Current Margin
24.2%
Threshold
15.0%
Relative Position
+9.2%
Why It Matters
Net income margin shows how much profit the business keeps from each dollar of revenue after all costs.
Formula
Net Income / Total Revenue x 100Method
Compare current margin with the industry-specific threshold to avoid cross-sector distortions.
Worked Example
This company's net income margin is 24.2% — it keeps 24 cents of every revenue dollar as profit after all expenses. The materials & mining threshold is 15%, putting it 9.2% above the requirement.
How to Interpret
Margins that are both strong and stable can indicate competitive strength; persistent weakness may limit reinvestment and payout capacity.
Adequate profitability for this sector. The business converts enough revenue into profit to support dividend payments and moderate growth.
Sources
Consistency of profits over time
Cyclical business - earnings naturally fluctuate with commodity prices. Focus on dividend consistency instead.
Current Snapshot
Positive Years
4/10
Allowed Losses
0
EPS CAGR
15.6%
Why It Matters
Consistency in EPS helps distinguish resilient earnings power from one-off performance spikes.
Formula
Positive EPS Years / Available EPS YearsMethod
For 8+ years of data, apply industry-specific loss tolerance. For limited data, every available year must be positive.
Worked Example
This company reported positive earnings in 4 of the last 10 years, with 4 loss years. The allowed loss tolerance for this industry is 0 years. EPS growth rate (CAGR) is 15.6%.
How to Interpret
Fewer loss years and stronger EPS continuity generally improve confidence in future dividend and valuation assumptions.
Cyclical businesses have volatile earnings tied to commodity prices. For these companies, dividend track record is more telling than earnings consistency.
Sources
How much earnings are consumed by capital expenditure
CapEx consumes 176% of cumulative earnings — above the 75% threshold. Expected for this capital-intensive sector.
Current Snapshot
10Y CapEx Intensity
176%
Threshold
75%
Buffer
-101%
Why It Matters
CapEx intensity estimates how much of earnings must be reinvested just to sustain operations.
Formula
Cumulative CapEx (10yr) / Cumulative Net Income (10yr) x 100Method
Aggregate 10-year CapEx and net income, then compare the ratio with the sector threshold in the framework.
Worked Example
Over 10 years, 176% of this company's cumulative earnings were consumed by capital expenditure. The materials & mining threshold is 75%, leaving a buffer of -101% (over threshold).
How to Interpret
Lower ratios usually indicate better cash conversion. Higher ratios can reduce room for dividends and buybacks.
High capital intensity means most earnings go back into maintaining the business rather than rewarding shareholders. This is typical for this sector but limits dividend growth potential.
Sources
Insufficient dividend history. Barsi methodology requires 6 years of data to calculate average yield.
Current Snapshot
6Y Avg Yield
N/A
6% Requirement
6.0%
Gross Yield
N/A
Why It Matters
Yield translates dividend income into a percentage of the price paid, which is central to income-first screening.
Formula
Annual Dividends per Share / Stock Price x 100Method
Use the 6-year average annual dividend for consistency and compare the result with the 6% framework requirement.
Worked Example
If annual dividends are $0.60 and the share price is $10, dividend yield is 6.0%.
How to Interpret
Higher sustainable yield improves upfront income, but unusually high yields may reflect elevated risk or weak coverage.
Without 6 years of dividend history, we can't assess whether the yield is sustainable or a one-time spike. More data is needed to evaluate income potential.
Sources
Track record of consistent dividend payments
| Ex-Date | Pay Date | Gross | Franking | Net | Credit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Mar 2026Interim | 9 Apr 2026 | $0.07 | 100% | $0.05 | $0.02 |
Only 1 year of dividend history available. Barsi methodology requires 6+ years to evaluate consistency.
Current Snapshot
History
1yr
Predictability
N/A
Payout Health
N/A
Why It Matters
Payment consistency is a direct test of dividend reliability. Large cuts or skips often appear before confidence recovers.
Formula
Consecutive Years = count of years with dividend payments and no disqualifying skip/cut eventsMethod
Require at least 6 years of history, then check for skipped years and large cuts, allowing approved systemic-event exceptions.
Worked Example
This company has 1 years of dividend history (2026–2026). No suspensions detected — 1 consecutive years of payments. Predictability: N/A. Payout health: N/A. The minimum requirement is 6 years.
How to Interpret
Longer uninterrupted records generally signal stronger income reliability than high yield alone.
Without 6 years of history, we can't verify this company maintained dividends through economic cycles. Longer track records provide confidence your income will continue.
Sources
Industry category of the business
Basic Materials is not a BESST sector. Non-BESST stocks receive a lower base score but can still qualify with exceptional dividend metrics.
Current Snapshot
Industry
Gold
BESST Match
No
Score Impact
No bonus
Why It Matters
Sector classification helps contextualise risk and demand durability, which can materially affect dividend stability.
Formula
BESST Match = Sector in {Banks, Energy, Sanitation, Insurance, Telecom}Method
Match company sector or industry against BESST categories. A match adds scoring support but does not replace core dividend checks.
Worked Example
This company operates in Gold (Basic Materials sector). It does not match a BESST sector, so it receives the standard base score. Non-BESST stocks can still qualify with strong dividend metrics.
How to Interpret
BESST alignment is a positive context signal. Non-BESST stocks can still qualify with strong yield and dividend consistency.
Non-essential businesses face demand drops during recessions — discretionary spending is first to be cut. This increases cyclical risk for dividends, but companies with decades of consistent payments can still demonstrate durability.
Sources
No overlapping years between dividend and earnings history.
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