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AUB Group Limited
Financial Services · Insurance Brokers
Updated 19 hours ago
$29.17
MARKET CAP
$3.81B
P/E RATIO
37.3
DIV. YIELD
3.3%
FRANKING
100%
AUB Group Limited engages in the insurance broking and underwriting agency businesses in Australia, the United States, the United Kingdom, Rest of Europe, New Zealand, and internationally.
View full descriptionThe Warsi Rating combines two proven approaches: value investing principles and dividend strategy. A stock must score 70+ on both to be rated Solid or higher.
$35.03
Discounted cash flow estimate
$10.27
For 6% dividend yield
Business quality and balance-sheet durability.
How much the company owes vs. what it owns
Acceptable. Debt level (0.64) is within this Buffett-inspired framework's limit of 1.5.
Current Snapshot
Current D/E
0.64x
Industry Limit
1.50x
Headroom
+0.86x
Why It Matters
Debt-to-equity shows balance-sheet risk. Lower leverage usually means more flexibility when earnings soften.
Formula
Total Debt / Shareholders' EquityMethod
Compare current D/E against the industry threshold used in the scoring framework, then assess remaining headroom.
Worked Example
This company's D/E is 0.64, meaning it carries 64 cents of debt for every $1 of equity. The insurance brokers limit is 1.50, leaving 0.86 of headroom.
How to Interpret
Lower values generally imply lower refinancing pressure and lower dividend stress in downturns.
Low debt means this company isn't at risk of cutting dividends to service loans during downturns. Your income stream is protected by a strong balance sheet.
Sources
Real cash left after running the business
Positive cash generation. Company produces real cash after capital expenditures - can fund dividends, buybacks, or growth.
Current Snapshot
Current FCF
$116M
Pass Rule
> $0
Status
Positive
Why It Matters
Free cash flow is the cash available after core operating and capital needs. It is central to dividend capacity.
Formula
Operating Cash Flow - Capital ExpendituresMethod
Review whether free cash flow is consistently positive and whether it is sufficient relative to dividends and debt needs.
Worked Example
This company generated $116M in free cash flow — cash left after operating costs and capital expenditure. Positive FCF means dividends are funded by real cash generation.
How to Interpret
Persistently negative free cash flow can force reliance on borrowing or equity issuance to maintain payouts.
Positive cash flow means dividends are funded by actual money, not accounting profits. As Buffett says, "Cash is fact, profit is opinion." Your income is backed by real cash generation.
Sources
Profit generated per $1 of shareholder investment
Price versus estimated intrinsic value and required return thresholds.
What percentage of the stock price comes back as earnings each year
Consistency of profits over time
Is the business growing or shrinking over time?
Revenue has grown 437% over 11 years — the business is expanding, which supports growing dividend capacity.
Current Snapshot
Revenue Change
+437.0%
Debt Change
N/A (financials)
Trend State
Improving
Why It Matters
Revenue trend shows whether the business is expanding or contracting. Debt trend adds context on whether growth is being funded conservatively.
Formula
Revenue Change (%) = (Latest Revenue - Earliest Revenue) / |Earliest Revenue| x 100; Debt Change (%) = (Latest Debt - Earliest Debt) / |Earliest Debt| x 100Method
Map annual revenue history and, where relevant, annual debt history. For financial companies, debt is excluded because deposits and reserves distort this signal.
Worked Example
Revenue changed by +437.0% across the displayed period.
How to Interpret
Rising revenue with stable or falling debt is typically stronger than rising revenue funded by rapidly rising leverage.
Revenue has grown 437% over 11 years — the business is expanding, which supports growing dividend capacity.
Sources
Annual dividends as percentage of stock price
2.11% yield is well below the 6% target. Not suitable for Barsi's income strategy.
Current Snapshot
6Y Avg Yield
2.1%
6% Requirement
6.0%
Gross Yield
3.0%
Why It Matters
Yield translates dividend income into a percentage of the price paid, which is central to income-first screening.
Formula
Annual Dividends per Share / Stock Price x 100Method
Use the 6-year average annual dividend for consistency and compare the result with the 6% framework requirement.
Worked Example
With a 6-year average annual dividend of $0.62 and a share price of $29.17, the Barsi yield is 2.1%. The minimum requirement is 6%. Including franking credits, the gross yield is 3.0%.
How to Interpret
Higher sustainable yield improves upfront income, but unusually high yields may reflect elevated risk or weak coverage.
Low yield means you need significant capital to generate meaningful income. Barsi's strategy focuses on stocks that provide substantial cash flow from day one.
Sources
Track record of consistent dividend payments
| Ex-Date | Pay Date | Gross | Franking | Net | Credit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ~11 Sept 2026Est | ~12 Oct 2026 | ~$0.63 | 100% | ~$0.44 | $0.19 |
| ~15 Mar 2027Est | ~2 Apr 2027 | ~$0.25 | 100% | ~$0.18 | $0.08 |
Highest price to lock in 6% yield
Industry category of the business
Banking is an essential service sector with stable, predictable cash flows - ideal for dividend investing.
Current Snapshot
Industry
Insurance Brokers
BESST Match
Yes
Score Impact
+3 points
Why It Matters
Sector classification helps contextualise risk and demand durability, which can materially affect dividend stability.
Formula
BESST Match = Sector in {Banks, Energy, Sanitation, Insurance, Telecom}Method
Match company sector or industry against BESST categories. A match adds scoring support but does not replace core dividend checks.
Worked Example
This company operates in Insurance Brokers (Financial Services sector). It matches the Banking category — an essential service sector with stable demand, earning a +3 point scoring advantage.
How to Interpret
Sources
How much of a company's earnings are paid out as dividends
The company is paying out more in dividends than it earns (119%). This is unsustainable long-term and often signals a dividend cut ahead. An inflated payout also distorts the price ceiling calculation used in our analysis.
Current Snapshot
Latest Ratio
118.9%
Healthy Range
30%-75%
Zone
Unsustainable
Why It Matters
Payout ratio links dividends to earnings capacity and helps evaluate whether current distributions are likely to remain supportable.
Formula
Payout Ratio (%) = (Annual Dividend per Share / Earnings per Share) x 100Method
Calculate year-by-year payout ratios where EPS is positive, classify each year by sustainability zone, and compare with the current TTM ratio.
Worked Example
$0.27 dividend / $0.78 EPS equals 34.5% payout ratio.
How to Interpret
Ratios in the middle range are usually more sustainable than very high ratios. Values above 100% indicate dividends exceeded earnings in that period.
The company is paying out more in dividends than it earns (119%). This is unsustainable long-term and often signals a dividend cut ahead. An inflated payout also distorts the price ceiling calculation used in our analysis.
Sources
10-year ROE trends, dividend history, price ceiling calculations, and every red flag explained.
See the Full BreakdownFree. No card. 10 seconds.
10.3% average ROE meets the threshold, but dropped to 5.1% in a weak year. Consistency matters in this framework.
Current Snapshot
10Y Avg
10.3%
Threshold
10.0%
Worst Year
5.1%
Why It Matters
ROE shows how effectively management turns shareholder capital into profit. High and stable ROE can signal pricing power, cost discipline, or both.
Formula
Net Income / Shareholders' Equity x 100Method
Use the 10-year average ROE and review the weakest year to check whether returns stayed resilient across cycles.
Worked Example
This company's 10-year average ROE is 10.3%, meaning each $1 of shareholder equity generates $0.10 in annual profit. The threshold is 10%, and the worst single year was 5.1%.
How to Interpret
Higher and steadier ROE generally supports stronger long-term compounding. Large drawdowns in weak years can point to fragility.
The average is solid, but the dip shows some vulnerability. At 10.3% ROE, every $1 retained generates $0.10 in annual profit — monitor whether the weak year was a one-off or a recurring pattern.
Sources
2.7% earnings yield is below the 7.0% threshold. You'd earn nearly as much from safer government bonds, which means the extra risk of owning shares isn't being compensated.
Current Snapshot
Current Yield
2.7%
Required Yield
7.0%
Spread
-4.3pp
Why It Matters
Earnings yield reframes valuation as return on price paid. It helps compare equity earnings power against lower-risk alternatives.
Formula
(Earnings per Share / Stock Price) x 100Method
Calculate current earnings yield, then compare it to the required yield for the stock's industry setting.
Worked Example
With EPS of $0.78 and a share price of $29.17, earnings yield is 2.7%. The required yield for this industry is 7.0% (based on 4.5% government bond rate plus a risk premium).
How to Interpret
A yield above the required level suggests better valuation support; below it indicates thinner compensation for equity risk.
Returns don't justify the added risk compared to safe bonds. Consider whether the dividend yield alone compensates, or wait for a better price.
Sources
How current price compares with estimated intrinsic value
Stock is trading 19% ABOVE the fair-value threshold (includes 30% margin of safety), but still below the estimated intrinsic value.
Current Snapshot
Current Margin
16.7%
Industry Threshold
30%
Status
19% Above Fair Value
Why It Matters
Margin of safety provides a valuation buffer against modelling uncertainty and adverse business outcomes.
Formula
(Estimated Intrinsic Value per Share - Current Price) / Estimated Intrinsic Value per Share x 100Method
Estimate intrinsic value using a two-stage DCF (10-year projection plus terminal value), then compare with current price.
Worked Example
For this stock now: intrinsic value is $35.03 per share, current price is $29.17, and margin of safety is 16.7%.
How to Interpret
Positive margin indicates price below modelled value; negative margin indicates price above modelled value. Compare against the industry's required buffer.
Price remains below the intrinsic value estimate but above your required threshold. Under this methodology, the valuation buffer is thinner, so estimate error and volatility have a larger impact.
Sources
11/11 positive EPS years demonstrates highly predictable earnings through multiple economic cycles.
Current Snapshot
Positive Years
11/11
Allowed Losses
1
EPS CAGR
2.0%
Why It Matters
Consistency in EPS helps distinguish resilient earnings power from one-off performance spikes.
Formula
Positive EPS Years / Available EPS YearsMethod
For 8+ years of data, apply industry-specific loss tolerance. For limited data, every available year must be positive.
Worked Example
This company reported positive earnings in 11 of the last 11 years. The allowed loss tolerance for this industry is 1 year. EPS growth rate (CAGR) is 2.0%.
How to Interpret
Fewer loss years and stronger EPS continuity generally improve confidence in future dividend and valuation assumptions.
A perfect track record through multiple economic cycles means this company generates profits in good times and bad. Your dividend has a solid foundation.
Sources
How much earnings are consumed by capital expenditure
Exceptionally capital-light. Only 3% of earnings consumed by CapEx — this is the type of business Buffett loves.
Current Snapshot
10Y CapEx Intensity
3%
Threshold
50%
Buffer
+47%
Why It Matters
CapEx intensity estimates how much of earnings must be reinvested just to sustain operations.
Formula
Cumulative CapEx (10yr) / Cumulative Net Income (10yr) x 100Method
Aggregate 10-year CapEx and net income, then compare the ratio with the sector threshold in the framework.
Worked Example
Over 10 years, 3% of this company's cumulative earnings were consumed by capital expenditure. The insurance brokers threshold is 50%, leaving a buffer of +47%.
How to Interpret
Lower ratios usually indicate better cash conversion. Higher ratios can reduce room for dividends and buybacks.
Very low capital requirements mean most profits are available for dividends, buybacks, or growth. This business generates wealth without needing to pour money back in — the hallmark of a durable competitive advantage.
Sources
Percentage of revenue that becomes profit after all expenses
8.8% net margin is below the 10% threshold. May reflect this sector's structural characteristics.
Current Snapshot
Current Margin
8.8%
Threshold
10.0%
Relative Position
-1.2%
Why It Matters
Net income margin shows how much profit the business keeps from each dollar of revenue after all costs.
Formula
Net Income / Total Revenue x 100Method
Compare current margin with the industry-specific threshold to avoid cross-sector distortions.
Worked Example
This company's net income margin is 8.8% — it keeps 9 cents of every revenue dollar as profit after all expenses. The insurance brokers threshold is 10%, putting it 1.2% below the requirement.
How to Interpret
Margins that are both strong and stable can indicate competitive strength; persistent weakness may limit reinvestment and payout capacity.
Lower margins in this sector are common, but they leave less cushion if costs rise or revenue drops. Monitor whether margins are stable over time — consistency matters more than the absolute level.
Sources
Years of earnings needed to retire all long-term debt
Would take 8.1 years of earnings to pay off long-term debt — above the 4-year threshold. Heavy debt relative to earnings.
Current Snapshot
Payoff Years
8.1yr
Target Years
4yr
Gap
-4.1yr
Why It Matters
Debt payoff years converts leverage into an intuitive time measure, making debt burden easier to compare across stocks.
Formula
Long-Term Debt / Average Net Income (3yr)Method
Use current long-term debt and the 3-year average net income to smooth one-off profit noise.
Worked Example
With $1.1B in long-term debt and $138M in average annual earnings (3yr), it would take 8.1 years of earnings to pay off all debt. The insurance brokers threshold is 4 years.
How to Interpret
Lower values generally indicate stronger debt capacity. Very high values can constrain dividend resilience.
High debt relative to earnings means interest payments compete with dividends for available cash. If earnings dip, the dividend is at risk because debt must be serviced first.
Sources
| Ex-Date | Pay Date | Gross | Franking | Net | Credit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Mar 2026Interim | 2 Apr 2026 | $0.39 | 100% | $0.27 | $0.12 |
| 8 Sept 2025Final | 10 Oct 2025 | $0.94 | 100% | $0.66 | $0.28 |
| 6 Mar 2025Interim | 4 Apr 2025 | $0.36 | 100% | $0.25 | $0.11 |
| 6 Sept 2024Final | 11 Oct 2024 | $0.84 | 100% | $0.59 | $0.25 |
| 29 Feb 2024Interim | 5 Apr 2024 | $0.29 | 100% | $0.20 | $0.09 |
| 7 Sept 2023Final | 9 Oct 2023 | $0.67 | 100% | $0.47 | $0.20 |
| 1 Mar 2023Interim | 4 Apr 2023 | $0.24 | 100% | $0.17 | $0.07 |
| 7 Sept 2022Final | 7 Oct 2022 | $0.54 | 100% | $0.38 | $0.16 |
| 1 Mar 2022Interim | 4 Apr 2022 | $0.24 | 100% | $0.17 | $0.07 |
| 8 Sept 2021Final | 11 Oct 2021 | $0.55 | 100% | $0.38 | $0.16 |
Excellent track record. 11 years of consistent dividends through multiple market cycles.
Current Snapshot
History
11yr
Predictability
Variable
Payout Health
Elevated
Why It Matters
Payment consistency is a direct test of dividend reliability. Large cuts or skips often appear before confidence recovers.
Formula
Consecutive Years = count of years with dividend payments and no disqualifying skip/cut eventsMethod
Require at least 6 years of history, then check for skipped years and large cuts, allowing approved systemic-event exceptions.
Worked Example
This company has 11 years of dividend history (2016–2026). No suspensions detected — 11 consecutive years of payments. Predictability: Variable. Payout health: Elevated. The minimum requirement is 6 years.
How to Interpret
Longer uninterrupted records generally signal stronger income reliability than high yield alone.
A 11-year track record through multiple economic cycles gives confidence your income will continue. This company has proven it prioritises shareholder returns.
Sources
Current price ($29.17) is 184% above the ceiling. Wait for a drop to lock in 6% yield.
Current Snapshot
Current Price
$29.17
Max Buy Price
$10.27
Delta
-184.0%
Why It Matters
The price ceiling links valuation discipline to income targets by defining the price that aligns with a 6% yield target.
Formula
6-Year Average Annual Dividend / 0.06Method
Use the 6-year average dividend (not one year) and divide by 0.06 to estimate the maximum entry price for target yield.
Worked Example
With a current price of $29.17 and a ceiling of $10.27, the entry is 184.0% above the ceiling.
How to Interpret
Prices below the ceiling imply a historical yield above 6%; prices above it imply a lower historical yield at entry.
At this price, you won't achieve Barsi's target 6% yield. Consider waiting for a pullback — market volatility often creates more favourable valuations for patient investors.
Sources
BESST alignment is a positive context signal. Non-BESST stocks can still qualify with strong yield and dividend consistency.
Essential services maintain demand regardless of economic conditions - people always need electricity, banking, and telecommunications. Your income is protected by inelastic demand.