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Aristocrat Leisure Limited
Consumer Cyclical · Gambling
Updated just now
$46.15
MARKET CAP
$28.00B
P/E RATIO
17.6
DIV. YIELD
2.0%
FRANKING
73%
ALL looks strong on value, has red flags on dividends — see the full breakdown
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Aristocrat Leisure Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a gaming content and technology company in Australia and internationally. It operates through three segments: Aristocrat Gaming, Product Madness, and Aristocrat Interactive.
View full descriptionThe Warsi Rating combines two proven approaches: value investing principles and dividend strategy. A stock must score 70+ on both to be rated Solid or higher.
$113.75
Discounted cash flow estimate
$9.39
For 6% dividend yield
Business quality and balance-sheet durability.
Profit generated per $1 of shareholder investment
Strong 27.8% average with no year below 15%. Consistent performance signals durable competitive advantage. Note: COVID-19 Pandemic year(s) excluded — ROE recovered to 270% of target.
Current Snapshot
10Y Avg
27.8%
Threshold
15.0%
Worst Year
15.8%
Why It Matters
ROE shows how effectively management turns shareholder capital into profit. High and stable ROE can signal pricing power, cost discipline, or both.
Formula
Net Income / Shareholders' Equity x 100Method
Use the 10-year average ROE and review the weakest year to check whether returns stayed resilient across cycles.
Worked Example
This company's 10-year average ROE is 27.8%, meaning each $1 of shareholder equity generates $0.28 in annual profit. The threshold is 15%, and the worst single year was 15.8%.
How to Interpret
Higher and steadier ROE generally supports stronger long-term compounding. Large drawdowns in weak years can point to fragility.
At 27.8% ROE, every $1 retained by this company generates $0.28 in annual profit. This compounding power drives long-term wealth - and for dividend investors, it typically means sustainable dividend growth without needing debt.
Sources
How much the company owes vs. what it owns
Profit after production costs, before overhead
Short-term assets vs. short-term debts
Real cash left after running the business
Positive cash generation. Company produces real cash after capital expenditures - can fund dividends, buybacks, or growth.
Current Snapshot
Current FCF
$1.5B
Pass Rule
> $0
Status
Positive
Why It Matters
Free cash flow is the cash available after core operating and capital needs. It is central to dividend capacity.
Formula
Operating Cash Flow - Capital ExpendituresMethod
Review whether free cash flow is consistently positive and whether it is sufficient relative to dividends and debt needs.
Worked Example
This company generated $1.5B in free cash flow — cash left after operating costs and capital expenditure. Positive FCF means dividends are funded by real cash generation.
How to Interpret
Persistently negative free cash flow can force reliance on borrowing or equity issuance to maintain payouts.
Positive cash flow means dividends are funded by actual money, not accounting profits. As Buffett says, "Cash is fact, profit is opinion." Your income is backed by real cash generation.
Sources
Price versus estimated intrinsic value and required return thresholds.
How current price compares with estimated intrinsic value
How efficiently the company turns money into profit
Is the business growing — and is debt being managed responsibly?
Revenue growing while debt is declining — dividends are likely funded by business performance, not borrowing. This is the strongest signal of dividend sustainability.
Current Snapshot
Revenue Change
+13.0%
Debt Change
-27.1%
Trend State
Improving
Why It Matters
Revenue trend shows whether the business is expanding or contracting. Debt trend adds context on whether growth is being funded conservatively.
Formula
Revenue Change (%) = (Latest Revenue - Earliest Revenue) / |Earliest Revenue| x 100; Debt Change (%) = (Latest Debt - Earliest Debt) / |Earliest Debt| x 100Method
Map annual revenue history and, where relevant, annual debt history. For financial companies, debt is excluded because deposits and reserves distort this signal.
Worked Example
Revenue changed by +13.0% across the displayed period, while debt changed by -27.1%.
How to Interpret
Rising revenue with stable or falling debt is typically stronger than rising revenue funded by rapidly rising leverage.
Revenue growing while debt is declining — dividends are likely funded by business performance, not borrowing. This is the strongest signal of dividend sustainability.
Sources
Annual dividends as percentage of stock price
1.22% yield is well below the 6% target. Not suitable for Barsi's income strategy.
Current Snapshot
6Y Avg Yield
1.2%
6% Requirement
6.0%
Gross Yield
1.6%
Why It Matters
Yield translates dividend income into a percentage of the price paid, which is central to income-first screening.
Formula
Annual Dividends per Share / Stock Price x 100Method
Use the 6-year average annual dividend for consistency and compare the result with the 6% framework requirement.
Worked Example
With a 6-year average annual dividend of $0.56 and a share price of $46.15, the Barsi yield is 1.2%. The minimum requirement is 6%. Including franking credits, the gross yield is 1.6%.
How to Interpret
Higher sustainable yield improves upfront income, but unusually high yields may reflect elevated risk or weak coverage.
Low yield means you need significant capital to generate meaningful income. Barsi's strategy focuses on stocks that provide substantial cash flow from day one.
Sources
Track record of consistent dividend payments
| Ex-Date | Pay Date | Gross | Franking | Net | Credit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ~27 May 2026Est | ~19 June 2026 | ~$0.25 | 0% | ~$0.25 | $0.00 |
| ~26 Nov 2026Est | ~8 Dec 2026 | ~$0.32 | 0% | ~$0.32 | $0.00 |
Highest price to lock in 6% yield
Industry category of the business
Consumer Cyclical is not a BESST sector. Non-BESST stocks receive a lower base score but can still qualify with exceptional dividend metrics.
Current Snapshot
Industry
Gambling
BESST Match
No
Score Impact
No bonus
Why It Matters
Sector classification helps contextualise risk and demand durability, which can materially affect dividend stability.
Formula
BESST Match = Sector in {Banks, Energy, Sanitation, Insurance, Telecom}Method
Match company sector or industry against BESST categories. A match adds scoring support but does not replace core dividend checks.
Worked Example
This company operates in Gambling (Consumer Cyclical sector). It does not match a BESST sector, so it receives the standard base score. Non-BESST stocks can still qualify with strong dividend metrics.
How to Interpret
Sources
How much of a company's earnings are paid out as dividends
A 46% payout is in the sustainable range (30–75%) — the company balances rewarding shareholders with reinvesting for growth. This gives the price ceiling calculation a stable base, which is a healthy sign for long-term dividend investors.
Current Snapshot
Latest Ratio
45.6%
Healthy Range
30%-75%
Zone
Healthy
Why It Matters
Payout ratio links dividends to earnings capacity and helps evaluate whether current distributions are likely to remain supportable.
Formula
Payout Ratio (%) = (Annual Dividend per Share / Earnings per Share) x 100Method
Calculate year-by-year payout ratios where EPS is positive, classify each year by sustainability zone, and compare with the current TTM ratio.
Worked Example
$0.93 dividend / $2.62 EPS equals 35.6% payout ratio.
How to Interpret
Ratios in the middle range are usually more sustainable than very high ratios. Values above 100% indicate dividends exceeded earnings in that period.
A 46% payout is in the sustainable range (30–75%) — the company balances rewarding shareholders with reinvesting for growth. This gives the price ceiling calculation a stable base, which is a healthy sign for long-term dividend investors.
Sources
Aristocrat Leisure Limited, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a gaming content and technology company in Australia and internationally. It operates through three segments: Aristocrat Gaming, Product Madness, and Aristocrat Interactive. The company designs, develops, assembles, distributes, sells, and services gaming content, platforms, and systems, including electronic gaming machines, casino management systems, and iLottery and free-to-play mobile games. It also offers product madness, a publisher in the social casino genre of free-to-play mobile games; aristocrat gaming, a regulated land-based gaming; and Aristocrat Interactive, a regulated online real money gaming.
Aristocrat Leisure Limited was founded in 1950 and is headquartered in North Ryde, Australia.
Who owns the company's shares and how much leadership has at stake
Management's wealth moves with yours
Professional fund managers have done their homework and chosen to own this
Shares freely traded on the ASX by individual investors like you
A healthy mix — insiders hold 11.2% (they have skin in the game) and professional fund managers hold 47.6% (they’ve done their homework and like the business). This balance is a good sign for long-term investors.
Current Snapshot
Insider %
11.2%
Institutional %
47.6%
Float %
41.2%
Why It Matters
Ownership mix affects governance incentives, liquidity, and share-price behaviour under large portfolio rebalancing flows.
Formula
Public Float (%) = 100 - Insider Ownership (%) - Institutional Ownership (%)Method
Use reported ownership percentages, convert to percentage terms, and compute remaining public float as the residual.
Worked Example
If insiders own 11.2% and institutions own 47.6%, public float is 41.2%.
How to Interpret
Higher insider ownership can improve alignment of incentives, while dominant institutional concentration can amplify short-term price moves.
A healthy mix — insiders hold 11.2% (they have skin in the game) and professional fund managers hold 47.6% (they’ve done their homework and like the business). This balance is a good sign for long-term investors.
Sources
| Date | Insider | Type | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Mar 2026 | Chatfield (Neil Gregory) Non Executive Chairman | Purchase at price 32.67 per share. | 2K | $49K |
| 6 Mar 2026 | Chand (Natasha) Director (Non-Executive) | Purchase at price 32.65 per share. | 1K | $33K |
| 13 Jan 2026 | Chatfield (Neil Gregory) Non Executive Chairman | Purchase at price 38.05 per share. | 1K | $38K |
| 24 Nov 2025 | Croker (Trevor John) Chief Executive Officer | Unknown | 71K | — |
| 21 Nov 2025 | Croker (Trevor John) Chief Executive Officer | Unknown | 164K | — |
Company insiders have been net buyers of shares over the past 12 months. This may indicate management confidence in future prospects.
Value analysis may be affected by missing data.
Market data sourced from third-party financial data providers. Analysis generated using Warsi Criteria — proprietary scoring algorithms for value investing and dividend income analysis. Not financial advice. Learn how we analyse stocks →
Acceptable. Debt level (0.31) is within this Buffett-inspired framework's limit of 1.5.
Current Snapshot
Current D/E
0.31x
Industry Limit
1.50x
Headroom
+1.19x
Why It Matters
Debt-to-equity shows balance-sheet risk. Lower leverage usually means more flexibility when earnings soften.
Formula
Total Debt / Shareholders' EquityMethod
Compare current D/E against the industry threshold used in the scoring framework, then assess remaining headroom.
Worked Example
This company's D/E is 0.31, meaning it carries 31 cents of debt for every $1 of equity. The consumer cyclical & retail limit is 1.50, leaving 1.19 of headroom.
How to Interpret
Lower values generally imply lower refinancing pressure and lower dividend stress in downturns.
Low debt means this company isn't at risk of cutting dividends to service loans during downturns. Your income stream is protected by a strong balance sheet.
Sources
Healthy 57.8% average margin suggests sustainable competitive advantage.
Current Snapshot
10Y Avg
57.8%
Threshold
40%
Worst Year
55.3%
Why It Matters
Gross margin indicates how much room a business has to absorb costs and still generate profit.
Formula
(Revenue - Cost of Goods Sold) / Revenue x 100Method
Assess both the long-term average and the weakest year. The framework checks for both level and consistency.
Worked Example
This company's 4-year average gross margin is 57.8% — it keeps 58 cents of every revenue dollar after production costs. The threshold is 40%, and the weakest year was 55.3%.
How to Interpret
Sustained high margins usually support durability. Sharp margin swings can signal weaker control or cyclical pressure.
Strong margins mean the company has pricing power. They can maintain profitability even if costs rise - protecting the dividend during inflationary periods.
Sources
Adequate liquidity. 1.65 ratio meets Buffett's 1.5 target.
Current Snapshot
Current Ratio
1.65x
Warning Floor
1.00x
Target
1.50x
Why It Matters
Liquidity supports operational stability. Companies with weak liquidity can face pressure even when long-term fundamentals are sound.
Formula
Current Assets / Current LiabilitiesMethod
Compare the current ratio to the warning floor and target level used in the framework.
Worked Example
This company's current ratio is 1.65x — it has $1.65 in short-term assets for every $1 of short-term liabilities. The target is 1.5x, with a warning floor at 1.0x.
How to Interpret
Ratios above the target suggest healthier short-term resilience; ratios below 1.0x can indicate immediate funding risk.
Ample cash reserves mean the company can pay dividends even during temporary revenue drops. Your income has a buffer against short-term disruptions.
Sources
Stock is trading 42% BELOW the fair-value threshold (includes 30% margin of safety).
Current Snapshot
Current Margin
59.4%
Industry Threshold
30%
Status
42% Undervalued
Why It Matters
Margin of safety provides a valuation buffer against modelling uncertainty and adverse business outcomes.
Formula
(Estimated Intrinsic Value per Share - Current Price) / Estimated Intrinsic Value per Share x 100Method
Estimate intrinsic value using a two-stage DCF (10-year projection plus terminal value), then compare with current price.
Worked Example
For this stock now: intrinsic value is $113.75 per share, current price is $46.15, and margin of safety is 59.4%.
How to Interpret
Positive margin indicates price below modelled value; negative margin indicates price above modelled value. Compare against the industry's required buffer.
Price is below your required threshold, so you retain a margin-of-safety buffer against normal valuation error and market volatility.
Sources
What percentage of the stock price comes back as earnings each year
5.7% earnings yield is below the 7.5% threshold. You'd earn nearly as much from safer government bonds, which means the extra risk of owning shares isn't being compensated.
Current Snapshot
Current Yield
5.7%
Required Yield
7.5%
Spread
-1.8pp
Why It Matters
Earnings yield reframes valuation as return on price paid. It helps compare equity earnings power against lower-risk alternatives.
Formula
(Earnings per Share / Stock Price) x 100Method
Calculate current earnings yield, then compare it to the required yield for the stock's industry setting.
Worked Example
With EPS of $2.62 and a share price of $46.15, earnings yield is 5.7%. The required yield for this industry is 7.5% (based on 4.5% government bond rate plus a risk premium).
How to Interpret
A yield above the required level suggests better valuation support; below it indicates thinner compensation for equity risk.
Returns don't justify the added risk compared to safe bonds. Consider whether the dividend yield alone compensates, or wait for a better price.
Sources
14.8% ROIC exceeds the 11.0% threshold, indicating adequate capital efficiency.
Current Snapshot
5Y Avg
14.8%
Threshold
11.0%
WACC Delta
+5.8pp
Why It Matters
ROIC measures capital efficiency. Businesses that repeatedly earn above their funding cost can compound value more effectively.
Formula
After-Tax Operating Profit / Invested Capital x 100Method
Use the 5-year average ROIC and compare it with industry WACC plus the required spread in this framework.
Worked Example
This company's 5-year average ROIC is 14.8%, with a cost of capital (WACC) of 9.0%. The +5.8pp spread above WACC suggests it creates value on each dollar invested.
How to Interpret
A healthy spread above WACC suggests value creation; a narrow or negative spread points to weaker capital efficiency.
Returns exceed capital costs - this company creates value rather than destroying it. The business has the foundation to sustain and grow dividends.
Sources
How much earnings are consumed by capital expenditure
Moderate capital intensity. 31% of earnings goes to CapEx — within the 50% threshold for this sector.
Current Snapshot
10Y CapEx Intensity
31%
Threshold
50%
Buffer
+19%
Why It Matters
CapEx intensity estimates how much of earnings must be reinvested just to sustain operations.
Formula
Cumulative CapEx (10yr) / Cumulative Net Income (10yr) x 100Method
Aggregate 10-year CapEx and net income, then compare the ratio with the sector threshold in the framework.
Worked Example
Over 10 years, 31% of this company's cumulative earnings were consumed by capital expenditure. The consumer cyclical & retail threshold is 50%, leaving a buffer of +19%.
How to Interpret
Lower ratios usually indicate better cash conversion. Higher ratios can reduce room for dividends and buybacks.
Capital needs are manageable for this sector. The business retains enough earnings to fund both maintenance and shareholder returns.
Sources
Years of earnings needed to retire all long-term debt
Manageable debt. Could pay off long-term debt in 1.1 years — comfortably within the 4-year threshold.
Current Snapshot
Payoff Years
1.1yr
Target Years
4yr
Gap
+2.9yr
Why It Matters
Debt payoff years converts leverage into an intuitive time measure, making debt burden easier to compare across stocks.
Formula
Long-Term Debt / Average Net Income (3yr)Method
Use current long-term debt and the 3-year average net income to smooth one-off profit noise.
Worked Example
With $1.6B in long-term debt and $1.5B in average annual earnings (3yr), it would take 1.1 years of earnings to pay off all debt. The consumer cyclical & retail threshold is 4 years.
How to Interpret
Lower values generally indicate stronger debt capacity. Very high values can constrain dividend resilience.
Debt is comfortably serviceable from earnings. This means interest payments won't crowd out dividends, even during moderate downturns.
Sources
Percentage of revenue that becomes profit after all expenses
Strong 26.1% net margin — well above the 5% threshold for this sector.
Current Snapshot
Current Margin
26.1%
Threshold
5.0%
Relative Position
+21.1%
Why It Matters
Net income margin shows how much profit the business keeps from each dollar of revenue after all costs.
Formula
Net Income / Total Revenue x 100Method
Compare current margin with the industry-specific threshold to avoid cross-sector distortions.
Worked Example
This company's net income margin is 26.1% — it keeps 26 cents of every revenue dollar as profit after all expenses. The consumer cyclical & retail threshold is 5%, putting it 21.1% above the requirement.
How to Interpret
Margins that are both strong and stable can indicate competitive strength; persistent weakness may limit reinvestment and payout capacity.
High margins provide a comfortable buffer against rising costs or temporary revenue drops. Dividends are well-supported by consistent profitability.
Sources
Consistency of profits over time
10/4 positive EPS years. Limited data - full evaluation requires 8+ years. Monitor closely for consistency.
Current Snapshot
Positive Years
10/4
Allowed Losses
0 (limited)
EPS CAGR
19.0%
Why It Matters
Consistency in EPS helps distinguish resilient earnings power from one-off performance spikes.
Formula
Positive EPS Years / Available EPS YearsMethod
For 8+ years of data, apply industry-specific loss tolerance. For limited data, every available year must be positive.
Worked Example
This company reported positive earnings in 10 of the last 4 years. With only 4 years of data, every year must be positive. EPS growth rate (CAGR) is 19.0%.
How to Interpret
Fewer loss years and stronger EPS continuity generally improve confidence in future dividend and valuation assumptions.
So far so good, but limited history means we haven't seen how this company handles a full economic cycle. Monitor closely for continued consistency.
Sources
| Ex-Date | Pay Date | Gross | Franking | Net | Credit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Nov 2025Final | 8 Dec 2025 | $0.49 | 0% | $0.49 | $0.00 |
| 22 May 2025Final | 19 June 2025 | $0.44 | 0% | $0.44 | $0.00 |
| 29 Nov 2024Final | 27 Dec 2024 | $0.42 | 0% | $0.42 | $0.00 |
| 23 May 2024Final | 20 June 2024 | $0.36 | 0% | $0.36 | $0.00 |
| 30 Nov 2023Final | 28 Dec 2023 | $0.34 | 0% | $0.34 | $0.00 |
| 25 May 2023Final | 22 June 2023 | $0.30 | 0% | $0.30 | $0.00 |
| 30 Nov 2022Final | 28 Dec 2022 | $0.26 | 0% | $0.26 | $0.00 |
| 26 May 2022Final | 23 June 2022 | $0.26 | 0% | $0.26 | $0.00 |
| 1 Dec 2021Interim | 29 Dec 2021 | $0.26 | 0% | $0.26 | $0.00 |
| 28 May 2021Final | 25 June 2021 | $0.15 | 0% | $0.15 | $0.00 |
Excellent track record. 10 years of consistent dividends through multiple market cycles.
Current Snapshot
History
10yr
Predictability
Variable
Payout Health
Sustainable
Why It Matters
Payment consistency is a direct test of dividend reliability. Large cuts or skips often appear before confidence recovers.
Formula
Consecutive Years = count of years with dividend payments and no disqualifying skip/cut eventsMethod
Require at least 6 years of history, then check for skipped years and large cuts, allowing approved systemic-event exceptions.
Worked Example
This company has 10 years of dividend history (2016–2025). No suspensions detected — 10 consecutive years of payments. Predictability: Variable. Payout health: Sustainable. The minimum requirement is 6 years.
How to Interpret
Longer uninterrupted records generally signal stronger income reliability than high yield alone.
A 10-year track record through multiple economic cycles gives confidence your income will continue. This company has proven it prioritises shareholder returns.
Sources
Current price ($46.15) is 391% above the ceiling. Wait for a drop to lock in 6% yield.
Current Snapshot
Current Price
$46.15
Max Buy Price
$9.39
Delta
-391.5%
Why It Matters
The price ceiling links valuation discipline to income targets by defining the price that aligns with a 6% yield target.
Formula
6-Year Average Annual Dividend / 0.06Method
Use the 6-year average dividend (not one year) and divide by 0.06 to estimate the maximum entry price for target yield.
Worked Example
With a current price of $46.15 and a ceiling of $9.39, the entry is 391.5% above the ceiling.
How to Interpret
Prices below the ceiling imply a historical yield above 6%; prices above it imply a lower historical yield at entry.
At this price, you won't achieve Barsi's target 6% yield. Consider waiting for a pullback — market volatility often creates more favourable valuations for patient investors.
Sources
BESST alignment is a positive context signal. Non-BESST stocks can still qualify with strong yield and dividend consistency.
Non-essential businesses face demand drops during recessions — discretionary spending is first to be cut. This increases cyclical risk for dividends, but companies with decades of consistent payments can still demonstrate durability.
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